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Alt causes mean violence in Iraq is inevitable regardless of troop withdrawal—qualified experts agree.
Middle East Quarterly. “How Violent Is Iraqi Culture?” Winter 2008. http://www.humanrightsfirst.org/iraq/war_in_iraq.htm
Nimrod Raphaeli responds: Mr. Damluji suggests that the intent of my article is "to demonstrate that Iraqis are essentially more violent than other cultures." To the contrary, my intent was to highlight the efforts by Iraqis to revive their cultural life after decades of oppression and political violence. By highlighting poetry, theater, and art, the article takes an optimistic view of post-Saddam cultural achievements. What the article is not, though, is a comparative study of cultures; it does not examine the extent to which violence in Iraq may or may not exceed that of other cultures. As to the question whether the Iraqi culture is rooted in violence, the answer, unfortunately, is yes. Saddam's rein of terror has historic precedent. Generations of Iraqi students memorized the speech of the seventh-century governor of Iraq celebrating the idea of problem-solving through violence. An article by Shafeeq Ghabra, on "Iraq's Culture of Violence" (MEQ, Summer 2001), also makes the point that "the phenomenon of Saddam is planted deep in Iraqi social and political soil, a thesis supported by much evidence."[1] My article quotes Iraqi historian and sociologist ‘Ali al-Wardi to the effect that Bedouin culture formed the bedrock of Iraqi society. ‘Ali Allawi, the first civilian minister of defense of Iraq in the post-Saddam era, wrote that a "sense of a conflict-strewn society, permeates the work of al-Wardi: tribe versus tribe; tribe versus government; intra-urban violence between neighbourhoods; tribe versus town; town versus town; town versus government."[2] Writing in the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, Ma'ad Fayadh referred to the seat of power of the kings and the leaders of Iraq as "the seat of death."[3] I don't know under what circumstances Mr. Damluji left Iraq. Like that of many of my community with roots dating back to the pre-Islamic era, my citizenship was taken from me: I was handed a piece of paper stating, "His citizenship has been revoked, and he will absolutely not be allowed to enter Iraq." I was expelled from Iraq. Now, I can only look back with nostalgia as I read Mahdi Muhammed Ali's poem "The Flight":
Alt cause to instability and violence: corruption in the Iraqi oil industry.
Bilal A. Wahab, Fulbright fellow from Iraqi Kurdistan enrolled at American University. “How Iraqi Oil Smuggling Greases Violence.” Fall 2006 http://www.meforum.org/1020/how-iraqi-oil-smuggling-greases-violence
Oil is the lifeblood of Iraq. As Iraqis work to emerge from years of war and sanctions, oil exports are the government's greatest source of revenue. Since 2003, the new Iraqi government has exported US$33 billion in oil.[1] But rather than just fund reconstruction, oil has become a primary commodity on the black market and a central component of the web of corruption, terror, and criminality in Iraq. Oil smuggling has led to a convergence of crime and terrorism that increasingly destabilizes the country.
ME War Doesn’t Escalate
Middle East won’t escalate
Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 “Why the Iraq war won't engulf the Mideast”, International Herald Tribune
Finally, there is no precedent for Arab leaders to commit forces to conflicts in which they are not directly involved. The Iraqis and the Saudis did send small contingents to fight the Israelis in 1948 and 1967, but they were either ineffective or never made it. In the 1970s and 1980s, Arab countries other than Syria, which had a compelling interest in establishing its hegemony over Lebanon, never committed forces either to protect the Lebanese from the Israelis or from other Lebanese. The civil war in Lebanon was regarded as someone else's fight. Indeed, this is the way many leaders view the current situation in Iraq. To Cairo, Amman and Riyadh, the situation in Iraq is worrisome, but in the end it is an Iraqi and American fight. As far as Iranian mullahs are concerned, they have long preferred to press their interests through proxies as opposed to direct engagement. At a time when Tehran has access and influence over powerful Shiite militias, a massive cross-border incursion is both unlikely and unnecessary. So Iraqis will remain locked in a sectarian and ethnic struggle that outside powers may abet, but will remain within the borders of Iraq. The Middle East is a region both prone and accustomed to civil wars. But given its experience with ambiguous conflicts, the region has also developed an intuitive ability to contain its civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.
Its all empirically denied
Kevin Drum September 9 2007 The Washington Monthly, “The Chaos Hawks”
Needless to say, this is nonsense. Israel has fought war after war in the Middle East. Result: no regional conflagration. Iran and Iraq fought one of the bloodiest wars of the second half the 20th century. Result: no regional conflagration. The Soviets fought in Afghanistan and then withdrew. No regional conflagration. The U.S. fought the Gulf War and then left. No regional conflagration. Algeria fought an internal civil war for a decade. No regional conflagration.
No superpower draw-in
Michael Hilborn (Staff writer) February 19 2003 “Taking us to the brink”, Fort Frances Times Online
All is not lost, however. Dyer said he doesn’t believe the conflict will expand beyond the Middle East. “World War III has been cancelled,” he quipped. “You can all go home now.” Dyer believes the crisis will be contained because, unlike as recently as 20 years ago, there are no ideological superpowers facing each other over a phalanx of nuclear weapons.
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