Iraq Aff Wave 1

Atchison/Matheson/JHeidt/Foley

UMich 7 Week Seniors

Iraq Aff - Wave 1

***Affirmative***
***Iraq Stability Advantage***

Iraq Aff - Wave 1 1

***Iraq Stability Advantage*** 7

Advantage One:  Iraq Stability 7

Drawdown to 50,000 will happen inevitably – Obama has promised full withdrawal and the world is watching – he’ll back off of the commitment now 7

Delaying withdrawal past the SOFA agreement creates policy tunnel vision – plan causes focus shift to the root causes of violence 7

***1AC US Credibility Scenario (1)*** 8

Flip flopping on the withdrawal commitment will obliterate US credibility and global political capital 8

***1AC US Credibility Scenario (2)*** 9

Sticking to the withdrawal plan is the lynchpin to US credibility - Delay undermines the government - plan sends a key signal that deter adversaries 9

***1AC US Credibility Scenario (3)*** 10

This embolden insurgents, crush US credibility 10

***1AC US Credibility Scenario (4)*** 11

Overstaying Iraq crushes credibility – opens multiple scenarios for extinction 11

No other missed deadline matters – the only ones that matter are the ones Obama will renege on now 11

***Iraqi Escalation Scenario (1)*** 12

Scenario __ is Iraqi Escalation: 12

Delaying withdrawal creates the perception that we are trying to impose policies on the Iraqi government – causes instability 12

This perception spillsover to the rest of the security relationship – collapses our bilateral defense arrangements 12

Iraqi violence is sustained because they think violence is the only way to get us out – sticking to the timetable is key 12

***Iraqi Escalation Scenario (2)*** 13

No offense – Troops still deployed will not be performing military operations – just non-combat training and support missions 13

Its try or die – even if withdrawal increases violence – that’s inevitable now 13

Iraqi instability spillsover 13

***Iraqi Escalation Scenario (3)*** 14

Even after withdrawal the US will still be able to exercise leverage over the Iraqi Security Force 14

Sticking within the bounds of the timeline and withdrawing troops is key – troops cant maintain stability 14

***1AC Iraq Politics Scenario (1)*** 15

New Iraqi coalition government forming now – momentum from recent meetings 15

Err affirmative on uniqueness – regardless of current opposition Iraqi’s are ingenious at negotiating out of sticky political situations 15

***1AC Iraq Politics Scenario (2)*** 16

Troop withdrawal deadline question is the key –they overwhelm sectarian differences – all of Iraqs energy has to be put into government formation – destabilizes the country 16

***1AC Iraq Politics Scenario (3)*** 17

Destabalizing coalition building causes a political vacuum that insurgent will exploit – ensure escalating violence and instability 17

***1AC Iraq Politics Scenario (4)*** 18

Iraqi instability spillsover 18

***1AC Human Rights Advantage (1)*** 19

US use of collective punishment deliberately kills many innocent civilians 19

Human rights violations by the US military are perceived internationally. 19

Loss of human rights credibility tanks US soft power. 19

***1AC Human Rights Advantage (2)*** 20

U.S. soft power prevents 30 regional conflicts from going nuclear 20

***1AC Human Rights Advantage (3)*** 21

Abuses by the US military spark anti-Americanism. 21

***1AC Human Rights Advantage (4)*** 22

Causes US retaliation and global nuclear war 22

US human rights credibility in Iraq is key to democracy promotion 22

Solves global nuclear war – Middle east is key 22

***1AC Human Rights Advantage (5)*** 23

Iraq On Brink Now 24

Now is key – Iraq is stable but extremely fragile now 24

Delay Now (1) 25

Obama will delay withdrawal in response to violence 25

Insurgency means a delayed withdrawal 25

Increasing violence means the withdrawal will be delayed 25

Delay Now (2) 26

Obama will not be able to stick to his Iraq withdrawal deadline 26

US Occupation = Instability 27

US occupation divides the population – ensures sectarian conflict 27

A2: Terrorism/ War Impact Turns 28

No risk of terrorism or regional war absent US presence—2 reasons: 28

Iraqi security forces strong enough to deter al-Qaeda 28

Civil war unlikely to resume 28

Iraq Escalation – Impact Extension 29

Iraq instability risk nuclear conflagration 29

Middle East conflict escalates and goes nuclear 29

Refugee Crisis Internal 30

US occupation is causing a refugee crisis 30

Heg Mod 31

Failure in Iraq will crush US leadership 31

U.S. hegemony solves nuclear war. 31

A world in which the United States exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages. First, the global environment would be more open and receptive to American values--democracy, free markets, and the rule of law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with the world's major problems, such as nuclear proliferation, renegade states, and low level conflicts. Finally, US leadership would help preclude the rise of another global rival, enabling the US and the world to avoid another cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclear exchange. 31

Terrorism Module 32

Trrops cause terrorism – they are a key recruiting tool 32

Terrorism cause global nuclear war 32

Biodiversity Add-on (1) 33

US military presence in Iraq is causing widespread environmental destruction. 33

Iraq is a biodiversity hotspot—key to global preservation of species. 33

Biodiversity Add-on (2) 34

Extinction 34

Extension – Troops Destroy Environment 35

Military presence is killing native species and damaging the environment. 35

Diplomacy Key 36

Even with troop withdrawal, diplomacy is necessary to assist its rebuilding 36

U.S diplomacy is essential to keeping stability in Iraq—it is the glue holding everything together 36

Diplomacy Key 37

Diplomatic focus key to stabilizing Iraq 37

Coalition Forming Now 38

Plan = Win for Gov’t 39

Plan is a huge win for the gov’t – they will jump on the US withdrawal to gain political popularity 39

Terrorism Mod 40

Sticking to withdrawal give political space to Iraq that solves terrorism 40

Terrorism cause global nuclear war 40

Failure to W/D Undermines Gov’t 41

The Iraq government cannot afford to be side tracked by the US failure to withdrawal troops on time 41

US key 42

The United States the key influence over Iraq 42

Extensions - Presence Bad HR 43

The United States is perceived as hypocritical for promoting human rights and simultaneously violating them abroad—hurts credibility. 43

The US military is responsible for violence and rape against the Iraqi people. 43

Extensions - Presence Bad HR 44

Violent firing by the US military causes an overwhelming number of civilian casualties. 44

Extensions - Presence Bad HR 45

Iraqi civilians have less freedom post-US invasion. 45

Extensions - Presence Bad HR 46

US-controlled prisons violate human rights 46

Extensions - Presence Bad HR 47

US-controlled prisons violate the Geneva Accords 47

Impact: Extinction 48

Increasing Human Rights Leadership prevents extinction 48

Impact: AIDS 49

AIDS epidemic inevitable in a world of human rights abuses. 49

Unchecked Hiv/Aids Risks Extinction 49

Ext. Abuses--> Low HR Credibility 50

The United States is perceived as hypocritical for promoting human rights and simultaneously violating them abroad—hurts credibility. 50

US military presence in Iraq uniquely kills US human rights credibility 50

Ext. Abuses--> Low HR Credibility 51

No alt causes—the US is negatively perceived internationally uniquely because of its failures in Iraq. 51

A2: Squo Solves 52

Current human rights efforts are failing 52

HR Racism Add-on 53

US occupation facilitates racism 53

Racism is a D-Rule. Ethics demands individual resistance to racism or else we risk extinction 53

A2: Alt Causes to HR Cred 54

The root causes of U.S. loss of human rights credibility are torture and abuse policies in Iraq 54

HR Abuses Percieved Internationally 55

Human rights violations by the US military are perceived internationally. 55

A2 Condition CP (1) 56

Conditioning withdrawal on conditions on the ground fails – sucks us in further – emboldens insurgents 56

The Counterplan doesn’t solve – it crushes US credibility and creates further Iraqi instability 56

A2 Condition CP (2) 57

Only the plan solves – counterplan sets a precedent for further interventions and instability 57

A2 T – Combat Troops 58

Combat operations will be ceased in August 58

Iraq Stable Now (1) 59

Iraq stable now – country not even close to falling apart 59

Iraq Stable Now (2) 60

Iraq stable now—violence is decreasing 60

Iraq Stable n0w – Government loves and needs troops 60

A2 Delay Now (1) 61

Withdrawal is on schedule – public support and official statements 61

The withdrawal strategy is on track 61

Ordierno backed off of pressuring to delay the timeline 61

Huge political pressure to stick to withdrawal now 61

A2 Delay Now (2) 62

Obama’s commitment has always had an asterisk – not a definite deadline 62

No one believes the 2011 withdrawal to be true- polls prove 62

Withdrawal => Nuclear War 63

US withdrawal from Iraq risks Middle East nuclear winter, Saudi oil prices spikes, and guts US soft power. 63

Withdrawal => Iraqi Instability 64

US withdrawal from Iraq breeds civil war—conditions will be comparatively worse than the status quo. 64

Turn: US military withdrawal would breed Iraqi instability—empirics prove that Iraqi forces are not ready to combat threats absent US supervision. 64

Withdrawal causes escalating violence – Iraq can’t defend itself 64

Withdrawal => Iraqi Instability 65

Sustained troops are key to Iraq stability 65

Withdrawal from Iraq doesn’t solve stability – sectarian conflict 65

Withdrawal causes instability – Kurds and US military transfers 65

Withdrawal => Iraqi Instability 66

US troops key to prevent Kurdish backlash – spirals into war 66

A2 Withdrawal Solves Instability 67

Violence in Iraq is inevitable – troop withdrawals not key 67

Withdrawal => Re-intervention 68

Withdrawal causes us to get drawn back in – turns the aff 68

Withdrawal => Terrorism 69

Withdrawal guts US military morale and readiness—it only prolongs the war and breeds terrorism. 69

Their old terrorism defense doesn’t apply--US military withdrawal breeds a new generation of terrorism. 69

Decrease in US troops leads to global terrorism 69

Terrorist will strike based upon the perception of US weakness 69

Withdrawal => Heg Collapse 70

Iraq withdrawal makes Asian nuclear lash out inevitable and risks decline of US hegemony. 70

A2 Gradual/Phased Withdrawal 71

Even this small reduction makes victory in Iraq impossible 71

Even a gradual withdraw will collapse iraq stability 71

Instability turns Human Rights 72

Turns case: Iraqi human rights violations are empirically worse at times of war. 72

Instability Inevitable 73

Alt causes mean violence in Iraq is inevitable regardless of troop withdrawal—qualified experts agree. 73

Alt cause to instability and violence: corruption in the Iraqi oil industry. 73

ME War Doesn’t Escalate 74

Middle East won’t escalate 74

Its all empirically denied 74

No superpower draw-in 74

A2 Biodiversity Add-on 75

Species are resilient. 75

No Solvency – Defense Contractors 76

Private contractors will continue working after withdrawal 76

It would ensure the survival of defense contractors 76

A2 They are non-combat troops 77

Even if they aren’t engaged in combat missions, their presence sends a signal of reassurance to Iraqis 77

1NC Frontline (1) 78

Iraqi government at a standstill now 78

Iraqi formation of a new government will take a long time 78

1NC Frontline (2) 79

Troops are key to maintain stability during the electoral transition – turns case 79

Withdrawal causes regime complacency – stops internal reforms – makes them think the pressure is off of them 79

No Coalition Now 80

80

Long Timeframe 81

Iraqi formation of a new gov’t will take a long time 81

Troops Key to Friendly Iraq Gov’t 82

Troops are key to maintain pressure on the Maliki government – key to stop Iraqi belligerence 82

Withdrawal Collapses the Gov’t 83

Withdrawal causes regime complacency – disincentivizes internal political reform 83

Withdrawal during the electoral transition crushes its legitimacy – causes Iraq to collapse into sectarian conflict and war 83

Troops Key to Successful Gov’t Formation 84

Troops are key to maintain stability during the electoral transition – turns case 84

Withdrawal Crushes Electoral Transition 85

HR Cred Low Now 86

Human Rights Credibility low now 86

Uniqueness O/W Link 87

Past human rights abuses has already sealed the fate of the United States in many parts of the world 87

Troops abuses aren’t perceived 88

No link – US soldiers aren’t visible in Iraq because of legal agreements 88

Demo Promo Fails – General 89

U.S. attempts to spread democracy backfires. 89

Democratic transitions fail – backsliding proves 89

Demo Promo Fails – Middle East 90

Low US credibility and regional conflict make Middle Eastern Democracy impossible—even if they win a small risk that the plan promotes democracy, regional political limitations mitigate its impact. 90

US Middle Eastern democracy promotion fails—low human rights credibility and failure in Iraq. 90

Demo Promo Fails – Middle East 91

Middle East democracy empirically fails—any democratic establishment will not endure in the long term. 91

Military Will Still Abuse People 92

They don’t access the advantage—even if they withdraw the military, the plan doesn’t change military violence toward civilians when deployed to other places. The military will still be violent. 92

A2: Soft Power Impact 93

Obama is increasing soft power now- not going to collapse. 93

Alt causes are undermining US soft power. 93

A2: Soft Power Impact 94

Soft power low now 94

Soft Power Empirically fails, resulting in international conflict and prolif 94

A2 Terrorism Advantage 95

Reducing anti-americanism doesn’t solve terrorism 95

A2: AIDs Add-On 96

HIV can’t lead to extinction- science and history prove 96

War turns disease 97

War causes disease 97

1NC Condition CP (1) 98

Text: The United States federal government should institute a phased withdrawal of its military presence in the Republic of Iraq on the condition that the Republic of Iraq agree to security cooperation in Article 27 of the Status of Forces Agreement and the Strategic Framework Agreement. 98

ONLY the Counterplan can solve – a conditions-based approach ensures stability 98

2NC Solvency 99

The Counterplan is critical to ensure a smooth transition and stability 99

Conditions-based withdrawal is key to Iraqi stability 99

Politics = Net Benefit 100

Counterplan avoids the link to politics – congress wants conditional withdrawal 100

Politics Links 101

Iraq disengagement is incredibly unpopular 101

Iraq withdrawal is controversial with republicans and the public. 101

People perceive Iraq as unstable – ensures political backlash 101

Politics Link Turns (1) 102

Plan is widely popular 102

Politics Link Turns (2) 103

Iraq withdrawal popular with the public. 103

Politics Link Turns (3)  104

Iraq withdrawal popular among Democrats and independents. 104