Iraq Aff Wave 1

1NC Frontline (2)

Troops are key to maintain stability during the electoral transition – turns case

Dale McFeatters (Staff writer for the Washington Times) June 16, 2010 “ Leaving Iraq not as simple as it sounds “http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2010/06/137_67724.html

Iraq's new parliament met for 18 minutes this week, just long enough for the members to be sworn in and postpone indefinitely their first order of business, choosing someone for the largely ceremonial post of president. Even so, U.S. officials counted the abbreviated session as a victory of sorts. More than three months after the elections, Iraq still does not have a government and it may be weeks, even months, before it gets one. This could greatly complicate U.S. plans for withdrawal ― all combat troops out by Aug. 31, except for 50,000 to remain as trainers of the Iraqi security forces and to conduct counterterrorism operations as needed. Those remaining troops are to be gone by the end of 2011. But absent a government, the U.S. military might be Iraq's only guarantee against anarchy and a resumption of sectarian fighting. The problem is that the March 7 elections did not produce a clear winner, only a narrow plurality. The Iraqiya party of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi won 91 seats in the 325-seat parliament. The State of Law party of incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki won 89 seats. Allawi believes he should be given time to build a majority coalition. The two major Kurdish parties, with 43 seats, say they would be amenable to joining that coalition contingent on written guarantees about such issues as the division of oil revenues. But Iran brokered a coalition of the two major Shiite parties. This new National Alliance has 159 seats, enough for al-Maliki and other Shiite leaders to claim the right to form the government. The question of whether a bloc created after the election can pre-empt the party with the most votes is before the Iraqi courts

Withdrawal causes regime complacency – stops internal reforms – makes them think the pressure is off of them

Pollack, 3 - Director of Research at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. From 1995 to 1996 and 1999 to 2001, he served as Director for Persian Gulf Affairs on the staff of the National Security Council (Kenneth M. Pollac, 2003 “Securing the Gulf”)
On the other hand, the mere fact that the Persian Gulf states are so enamored of this strategy ought to give American planners pause. With the exception of Kuwait after the Iraqi invasion, most of these countries have shown a distressing determination over the years to ignore their problems -both external and internal -- rather than confront them. Although returning to a mostly over-thehorizon presence could provide the Persian Gulf states with the leeway they need to push through reforms, it is equally likely that they will see the withdrawal of U.S. forces as a panacea for all their problems and decide that internal reforms are therefore unnecessary. A reduced U.S. military and political presence, in turn, would weaken Washington's ability to press its local allies to make the tough choices they need to for their own long-term well-being

No Coalition Now

A political vacuum and excessive violence are preventing a coalition from being formed

GulfNews 6/26 (Mayada Al Askari, 6/26/10, " Allawi: Iraq needs clear political decisions ", http://gulfnews.com/News/Region/Iraq/Allawi:-Iraq-needs-clear-political-decisions-1.646556)
Dubai: More than three-and-a-half- months after the Iraq elections, the government formation seems a far cry. The failure to cobble together a government after the March 7 elections has fuelled public frustration and created a political vacuum.

The insurgents are exploiting the situation and there is an increase in violence. Iraqis, who are facing a myriad problems, are taking to the streets. Last week, there were protests in Basra — in which two demonstrator was killed — and Nassariyah against power cuts which cost the electricity minister his job.

The former prime minister Eyad Allawi-led Iraqiya alliance, backed by Sunnis, won a slim lead in the inconclusive vote, which Iraqis had hoped would set their nation on a path to stability seven years after the US-led invasion.

Allawi's Iraqiya won 91 seats against incumbent prime minister Nouri Al Maliki's State of the Law's 89, causing the deadlock.

The election results also showed the Iraqi people's aspirations for a non-sectarian secular government.

But a post-election merger between the State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance (INA) had been expected to deprive Al Iraqiya of the chance of forming the government.

An Iraq government will not form- disagreements prove

NYT 6/26 (Anthony Shadid, 6/26/10, " In Iraq, Divvying Up the Spoils of Political War ", http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/27/weekinreview/27shadid.html)
The facile shorthand has always failed to appreciate the byzantine diversity of the place, where class, pedigree and even tribe often mean more than sect and ethnicity. Iraqis themselves still recoil at the notion of shaping their politics around the idea. American officials have never quite taken credit for their often decisive role in making that idea the axis around which politics here have regrettably revolved.

Perhaps that is why the negotiations these days over a new government are so pivotal to Iraq’s future, seven years after the United States overthrew the old order.

Even to Iraqis, those talks are often mind-numbing in their tendency to deadlock; three months after an election, there is hardly any progress toward forming a coalition. But in the broadest terms, the decisions eventually made may determine whether Iraq adopts a system of quotas for running a Middle Eastern state that has been tried only in Lebanon, where its record is spotty (having failed to prevent, and was perhaps responsible for, two civil wars, along with a slew of occupations, invasions, crises and run-of-the-mill gridlock).

Iraq is writ far larger, though, with the stakes far greater.
Media coverage on death tolls has forced Iraq to shift focus from forming a government

Press TV 6/24 (6/24/10, " Nothing happening in Iraq? ", http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=131865§ionid=3510303)
The political crisis in Iraq and the failure to form a new government has dragged on for such a long time that it seems it has been forgotten or shoved to a less important corner.

The only news that comes out of the country is deadly explosion with heavy death tolls, and unfortunately this repetition has rendered these tragedies normal.

People are dying in Iraq; the government is inept of fulfilling the nation's energy needs and other necessities; and there is no end to the power struggle between officials.