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Why aren’t futures tools designed to enable us to expand future options?



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Positive Development From Vicious Circles to V

Why aren’t futures tools designed to enable us to expand future options?
This is partly because futures tools take the perspective of the individual, agency or firm – rather 
than the perspective of society at large or the wider public interest. This orientation may enhance the 
position of an organization or product in the market, but it is not the best framework for designing a 
better future for everyone. If our strategies are inherently about maximizing one’s position in a given 
context, a self-fulfilling prophesy is created. A zero sum world is normalized. While futures thinking 
tools are goal-directed and future-oriented, they can promote ‘win–lose’ strategies in a context of 
uncertainty and change. In the culture of business, the dominant view of the world is that of a game 
where the objective is winning by outsmarting the competition. It has been said that competition is 
like swimming among sharks: you only have to out-swim the person next to you. But this also means 
you do not have to help anyone else. Design that is driven by the aim of making existing processes 
more lean and mean will tend to eliminate the risk of competitors, not risks to society (as in the 
new, cheap ‘Nano’ car promoted in India). As we will see, futures tools do not suffice, on their own, 
for inventing new directions and new futures. We need to develop futures thinking processes that 
recognize the systems problems found in existing development, and identify opportunities found in 
natural systems, so we can design systems and environments that can:

Correct the ecological imbalances and social inequities of current systems
• 
Increase the resilience, adaptability and productiveness of human and natural systems 
• 
Make everyone better off (with the poor at least proportionately better off)
• 
Expand future options and equitable control over, and access to, the means of survival
Roadmapping is an example of a futures thinking process that is geared towards progressing the goals 
of an organization, rather than changing the context.

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