Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023
1
PART 1: ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK 2021 -2023
Global and Regional Economic
Outlooks
Since the first case was reported with
coronavirus infection in China on 17
November 2019,
and its subsequent
outbreak as a global pandemic, more than
306 million infections and nearly 5.6 million
deaths have been officially recorded
worldwide as caused by the virus until the
early January 2022.
1
Many people's
daily activities including
working, studying, and even home chores
have undergone dramatic changes, as travel
remains disrupted, prices of basic
commodities continue their oscillations. As
an example of these changes, many people
are now accustomed to cooking at homes as
a result
of the frequent closures of
restaurants. More broadly, when faced with
income uncertainty, millions of households
globally reduced their expenditure on
services in favor of increasing their savings.
Such developments
led to a decline in the
global economy in 2020 by 3.1%, according
to the estimates of the International Monetary
Fund issued at the end of October 2021,
which means that the global economy lost
about $22 trillion compared to its pre-
epidemic estimates in January 2020.
Although the IMF has projected the global
economy to recover by about 6% in 2021 and
by a further 4.9% in 2022, there is, however,
a marked divergence in the level of recovery
among the countries of the world, as the
growth forecasts for developed countries will
exceed what it was before the pandemic by
1
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/07/20/seizing-the-opportunity-for-a-pro-
growth-post-pandemic-world/
0.9% in 2024,
while for emerging and
developing economies (excluding China) it is
estimated to be lower than it was before the
pandemic, by 5.5% in 2024. This difference
is attributed to the disparity in the size of
financial support policies and the gap in the
vaccination rate (Box 1-1).
The support policies taken by many countries
around the world, such as the postponing of
loan repayments,
the reduction of interest
rates, and the provision of financial support
for the continuation of economic and social
activities, has amounted to about $16
trillion
2
according to an informed source from the
International Monetary Fund's blog. An
additional impact has been the global
increase among central banks of their
balance sheets by about $7.5 trillion. These
policies have
successfully limited the
deterioration of the world's economies, which
might have been as much as three times
larger had it not been for such bold policies.
On the other hand, the same policies have
contributed to the deterioration of the fiscal
balances of many countries, raising the level
of global debt by $28 trillion
3
, and even
reducing their financial capabilities to further
provide support.
Also, the spread of new waves of the
pandemic (new mutations and variants of the
virus, like Delta and Omicron) have exposed
many countries of the world to the risks of not
recovering quickly due to the need of
imposing new precautionary and preventive
measures, as has happened in European
countries,
others countries among them,
South Africa, India, Malaysia, etc.
3
https://blogs.imf.org/2021/12/15/global-debt-reaches-a-record-226-
trillion/