jUNE 2009 17
not only exceeded that of Russia and Ukraine over the years of
transition, but also has been comparable to that of advanced tran-
sition economies. For instance, the size of bank assets was equal
to approximately two-thirds of national output in both 1996 and
2001. As Table 5 indicates, even though this ratio dropped down
to about 46 percent in 2003 and to about 36 percent in 2006, the
figure still remains surprisingly large in relation to the country’s
ratio of broad money to GDP.
The explanation of this paradox and other peculiarities of the
Uzbek experience, which will be discussed in detail in the next
Table 4
Interest Rates and Inflation (%)
Consumer
price inflation
Deposit rate
Lending rate
Official
estimate
EBRD
estimate
1995
90.0
105.0
304.6
304.6
1996
28.0
49.7
54.0
54.0
1997
14.8
28.0
58.8
70.9
1998
13.1
33.1
17.9
29.0
1999
13.5
32.7
29.1
57.3
2000
18.8
27.6
24.9
49.5
2001
21.2
27.6
27.4
47.5
2002
26.0
33.4
21.6
44.3
2003
20.3
23.9
3.8
14.8
2004
16.1
21.2
3.7
8.8
2005
15.5
19.9
7.8
10.0
2006
15.0
21.0
6.8
14.2
Sources:
Central Bank of Uzbekistan, “Current Situation in the Area of Money and
Credit and the Main Focus of Monetary Policy for 2006,” available at http://cbu.uz/
uz/monet_policy/monet_direct2006.htm;
“Current Situation in the Area of Money
and Credit and the Main Focus of Monetary Policy for 2007,” available at http://
cbu.uz/uz/monet_policy/monet_direct2007.htm; “Current Situation in the Area
of Money and Credit and the Main Focus of Monetary Policy for 2008,” avail-
able at http://cbu.uz/uz/monet_policy/monet_direct2008.htm;
European Bank for
Reconstruction
and Development,
Transition Report
(various years).
18 PROBLEMS OF ECONOMIC TRANSITION
section, lies in the choice of policies for economic reforms and the
current structure of the economy. At the start of transition the Uzbek
authorities decided to adopt a gradual and evolutionary approach
to transform the economy into a market-based one.
6
Although the
announced gradualist approach to transition
did not clarify any
pre-identified strategy to explain the expected evolutionary phases
of transition, the authorities did emphasize their priorities. First,
in order to reduce the risk of vulnerability from economic fluctua-
tions in other countries within the FSU, they wanted to achieve
“economic independence” in areas that they considered to be of
strategic importance. This especially referred to the achievement of
self-sufficiency in basic consumer goods, such as wheat, and in en-
Table 5
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