The Next 100 Years

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The Polish nightmare has always been to be simultaneously attacked by 
both Russia and Germany. When that happens, as it did in 1939, Poland 
has no hope. The collapse of Russia in the 2020s will therefore create an op­
portunity and necessity for Poland. Just as Russia will have no choice but to 
move its buffers as far west as possible, so Poland will want to move its bor­
der as far east. 
Historically, Poland has rarely had this opportunity, having been squeezed 
and dominated by three empires—the Russian, the German, and the 
Austro- Hungarian. But in the seventeenth century, Poland had the oppor­
tunity to expand, faced with a fragmented Germany and a Russia that had 
not yet begun to be a powerful force in the West. 
The Poles’ problem had been an unsecured southern flank. In 2040, this 
will not be an issue since the rest of the Eastern European countries that will 
be facing the Russians will also be eagerly building buffers to the east, the 
lessons of the past still fresh in their minds. But there will be another di­
mension to this eastern bloc: an economic one. Since reunification in 
1871, Germany has been the economic powerhouse of Europe. Even after 
World War II, when Germany had lost its political will and confidence, it 
remained the most dynamic economic power on the continent. 
After 2020 that will no longer be the case. The German economy will be 
burdened by an aging population. The German proclivity for huge corpo­
rate megastructures will create long- term inefficiencies and will keep its 
economy enormous but sluggish. A host of problems, common to much of 
Central and Western Europe, will plague the Germans. 
But the Eastern Europeans will have fought a second cold war (allied 

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with the leading technological power in the world, the United States). A
cold war is the best of all wars, as it stimulates your country dramatically but
doesn’t destroy it. Many of the technological capabilities from which the
United States gains its massive advantage will be generated out of the sec-
ond cold war, and Poland will be flooded with American technology and ex-
pertise.
By itself, Germany will have neither the appetite nor the power to chal-
lenge the Polish bloc, as we will refer to it. But the Germans will be pain -
fully aware of the trajectory being followed. In due course, the Polish bloc
will outstrip Central and Western Europe’s power, and will achieve precisely
what Germany had once dreamed of. It will assimilate and develop the
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