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Measures of OFIs' impact on financial stability
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This chapter provides a selected overview of approaches for the measurement of financial
instability and financial distress. The focus is on tools that have been developed for banks that may
be usefully applied to NBFIs in the future.
Analogous research directly relating to NBFIs is, to our knowledge, not yet available.
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This point is
confirmed in a recent BCBS working paper (see BCBC, 2012) which states that “
the role of non-
bank financial institutions is almost universally ignored
” by studies on systemic risk and risk
indicators and “
this appears to be one of the most serious gaps in the literature…
”
Moreover, the same working paper notes that “
currently, there is no widely accepted model for
comprehensively measuring systemic risk. Instead, researchers have tended to use a wide range of
models and methodologies to examine one or a few specific aspects of systemic risk.”
In part, the lack of focus on NBFIs in systemic risk analysis may be due to the fact that a) there is
not yet a clear understanding of the role of NBFIs in the process of financial intermediation in
recent years and b) their role has been evolving. Existing institutions are undertaking activities that
they previously were not involved in, and altogether new institutions have emerged undertaking
new activities in the process of financial intermediation (see previous chapters).
Additionally, there is a lack of data available on NBFIs in comparison to banks.
This chapter provides an overview of the main tools used for measuring the impact of banks on
financial stability and financial distress as many could be applied as well to NBFIs if the required
data were available.
These tools can be classified into four categories:
Indicators of financial distress based on balance sheet variables
Early warning indicators
Macro stress tests
Methods for calculating the systemic importance of individual institutions
Analyses of interconnectedness.
A comprehensive review of various indicators focusing on these different aspects can be found in
Bisias et al. (2012). Our review of the literature and the one undertaken by Bisias et al. (2012)
shows that the work on such indicator is still very much work in progress with no conclusive and
robust findings as to the best approach.
Moreover, as the work by Danielson et al. (2011) shows, many of the more sophisticated
indicators (such as CoVaR, SES, Shapley, banking stability measures) are more contemporaneous
indicators of stress than predictive indicators.
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There are two exceptions to this statement. The Solvency II work for insurance undertakings and the various regulatory work on
pension funds. However, even in these cases, the knowledge base remains weak.
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