13.3.5
The relationship between NBFIs and credit conditions
NBFIs are important to the credit channel. Growth in the balance sheets of NBFIs provides a sense
of the availability of credit while contractions have tended to precede financial instability (Adrian
and Shin, 2009).
NBFI leverage is strongly procyclical (as shown in Adrian and Shin, 2007). This suggests that NBFI
leverage can be used as an early warning indicator. Indeed, Figure 49 shows that NBFI leverage in
the USA reached a peak two quarters prior to the financial crisis.
13
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Measures of OFIs' impact on financial stability
123
Figure 49: Mean leverage of primary dealers
Source: SEC
Based on the analysis above, candidate early warning indicators for OFIs should be selected on the
basis of informing of developments in credit markets. The rationale for this is that OFI variables
could inform developments of credit conditions and strong growth in credit, through a build-up of
financial imbalances, has the potential to unwind and disrupt financial stability.
13.4
Macroeconomic stress tests
Macroeconomic stress tests are used to determine how, in the present context, financial stability
would be affected as a result of shocks to the financial system.
Despite a wide range of methodologies employed, macroeconomic stress tests all share the
attribute of having a macroeconomic model underlying them that generates shocks or describes
the scenarios for macroeconomic variables (Drehmann, 2008). This may be based on a model
linking indicators of financial distress and early warning indicators or other types of models (e.g.,
vector auto regressions). These shocks or scenarios are then used to assess how sectoral balance
sheets respond.
The benefits of macro stress tests are that they are explicitly forward-looking and have the
potential to cover a broad range of scenarios. One can also trace shocks in such a way to consider
potential transmission mechanisms across individual institutions and policy responses in relation
to areas of balance sheet fragility.
However, in the context of the banking sector, and prospectively, in relation to non-bank
financials, macro stress tests are subject to a number of important shortcomings.
Firstly, the macroeconomic models do not properly incorporate financial variables. Secondly, data
availability, e.g., of important off-balance sheet items, is lacking. More generally, Borio and
Drehmann note that "greater granularity and relevance are bought at the expense of ruling out
interactions and feedback effects [but] it is these interactions, within the financial system and
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