Non-bank financial institutions: assessment of their impact on the stability of the financial system



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13.3.2
 
Indicators based on asset and credit markets 
Early warning indicators based on asset and credit markets are based on the view that excessively 
strong growth in credit and financial asset prices reflect a build-up of financial imbalances, which 
have the potential to unwind and disrupt financial stability. 
There is a long standing literature on early warning indicators based on asset and credit markets. 
This tends to contain macroeconomic variables, credit and monetary variables and variables 
relating to global economic and financial conditions (Borgy et al., 2009), as shown in Table 21.  
Below, we discuss the transmission mechanisms through which developments of these factors 
relate to growth of asset and credit prices. The main finding of this discussion is that OFI variables 
may inform on credit conditions that could therefore serve as effective early warning indicators. 


13
 
│ 
Measures of OFIs' impact on financial stability 
 
 
 
 
 
 
120 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Table 21: Early warning indicators 
 
Indicator 
Macroeconomic variables 
Housing prices 
Stock prices 
Real GDP 
Residential investment 
Residential investment-to-GDP ratio 
Investment 
Total investment-to-GDP ratio 
Credit and monetary variables 
Credit (real) 
Credit 
Credit-to-GDP ratio 
Money (real) 
Money 
Money-to-GDP ratio 
Nominal long-term rate 
Nominal short-term rate 
Real long-term rate 
Real short-term rate 
Spread 
Global economic and financial variables 
Current account-to-GDP ratio 

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