Masaryk university

Disputed Territories.

96^ Steven E. Lobell and Philip Mauceri, Ethnic Conflict and International Politics: Explaining Diffusion and Escalation (Palgrave Macmillan, 2004).

97^ Steven Yates, “When Is Political Divorce Justified,” in Secession, State and Liberty, David Gordon ed (London: New Brunswick, 1998), 35.

98^ Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, Fourth Printing edition (Cambridge, Mass: The MIT Press, 2005), 235.

99^ Typological theorizing can be a powerful tool in conflict studies. The creation of each type requires working through the logical implication and causal mechanism of a particular theory when its variables take on different values.

100^ Colin Elman, “Explanatory Typologies in Qualitative Studies of International Politics,” International Organization 59, no. 02 (2005): 295–300, doi:10.1017/S0020818305050101.

101^ Collier, David, Jody LaPorte, and Jason Seawright, “Typologies: Forming Concepts and Creating Categorical Variables,” in The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry Brady and David Collier ed (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 161–162.

102^ Dean Pruitt, Jeffrey Rubin, and Sung Hee Kim, Social Conflict: Escalation, Stalemate, and Settlement, 3 edition (Boston: McGraw-Hill Humanities/Social Sciences/Languages, 2003).

103^ Ho-Won Jeong, Understanding Conflict and Conflict Analysis (Los Angeles ; London: SAGE Publications Ltd, 2008), 26.

104^ Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict, 95.

105^ “Conflictbarometer 2005: Crisis - Wars - Coups d’État Negotiations - Mediations - Peace Settlements. 14th Annual Conflict Analysis” (Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research, 2005), http://www.hiik.de/en/konfliktbarometer/pdf/ConflictBarometer_2005.pdf.

106^ Otomar J. Bartos and Paul Wehr, Using Conflict Theory, 1 edition (Cambridge ; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 13.

107^ Peter Wallensteen, Understanding Conflict Resolution: War, Peace and the Global System, Third Edition edition (London ; Thousand Oaks, Calif: SAGE Publications Ltd, 2011), 15.

108^ Niall M. Fraser, Keith W. Hipel, John Jaworsky, Ralph Zuljan, “A Conflict Analysis of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Dispute,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (1990): 652–77.

109^ Dennis JD. Sandole, “A Comprehensive Mapping of Conflict and Conflict Resolution: A Three Pillar Approach.,” Peace and Conflict Studies 5, no. 2 (1998): 1–30.

110^ Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society, 4 edition (Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), 178.

111^ Vasquez, The War Puzzle, 35.

112^ Carl Von Clausewitz, On War (Wilder Publications, 2008), 42.

113^ Lewis F. Richardson, Quincy Wright, and C. C. Lienau, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels (Pacific Grove, Calif.: Boxwood Pr, 1960), 6.

114^ Melvin Small and J. David Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980, 2 Sub edition (Beverly Hills, Calif: SAGE Publications, Inc, 1982), 205–206.

115^ Joel David Singer and Melvin Small, The Wages of War, 1816-1965: A Statistical Handbook (New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc, 1972), 8.

116^ Jeong, Understanding Conflict and Conflict Analysis, 36.

117^ Competing historiographies are elaborated in Donald Victor Schwartz and Razmik Panossian., Nationalism and History: The Politics of Nation Building in Post-Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (University of Toronto: Centre for Russian and East European Studies, 1994).

118^ Smith and Smith, Nationalism and Modernism, 36.

119^ Vrezh Karduman, “Karabakhskyi Konflikt v Kontexte Porriisko-Amerikanskikh Otnoshenii. Vzglad iz Armenii. (Karabakh conflict in the context of Russian-American relations. View from Armenia),” “Vestnk” Rosiisko-Armnaskogo Universiteta (RAU), 2007, http://rau.am/downloads/Vestnik/1_07/kardumyan.pdf.

120^ Levon Chorbajian, The Caucasian Knot: The History & Geopolitics of Nagorno-Karabagh (Zed Books, 1994), 112–113.

121^ Cheterian, War and Peace in the Caucasus, 2009, 89.

122^ “An Autonomous Oblast (province) is supposed to have considerable cultural and administrative autonomy and is distinguished by a particular national composition and way of life, while an autonomous republic, which is structured as semi sovereign state, is supposed to have greater political clout and prestige. In reality, both autonomous oblasts and autonomous republics are highly dependent on the republic to which they are subordinated“ see in: Niall M. Fraser, Keith W. Hipel, John Jaworsky, Ralph Zuljan, “A Conflict Analysis of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Dispute,” 656.

123^ There are no precise data about the number of casualties. Some estimates put the number of victims between 3, 000 and 10, 000. See in: Cornell, Small Nations and Great Powers, 69.

124^ For example, the „bloody March“ events in 1918 is a „Day of Genocide of Azerbaijanis“, when according to the Azerbaijan version, the Armenian armed forces „Dashnaktsutun“ committed massacres and pogroms against Azerbaijanis. See in: “Tragichiskie sabitie marta 1918 v Azerbaijane (Den genocida) [The tragic events of March 1918 in Azerbaijan (‘Genocide Day’)],” Kavkazskii Uzel, March 28, 2014, https://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/204012/.

125^ Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, “Nagorno-Karabakh Issue: Position of Armenia on Nagorno-Karabakh,” http://www.mfa.am/en/artsakh/#a5.

126^ Gegam Bagdasarjan, “Tochka Zrenija Karabakhskogo Armenina [Karabakh Armenian Perspective],” Conciliation Resources Working Together for Peace, 2005, http://www.c-r.org/sites/default/files/Accord17_p22_Karabakh_Armenian_perspective_0.pdf.

127^ Viktor Shnirel’man, Voiny Pamjati: Mifi, Identichnot I Politika v Zakavkazie [Wars of Memory: Myths, Identity and Politics in Transcaucasia] (IKC Akademkniga, 2003), 38.

128^ Kaufman, Modern Hatreds.

129^ Anastasia Voronkova, “Understanding the Dynamics of Ethnonationalist Contention: Political Mobilization, Resistance and Violence in Nagorno-Karabakh and Northern Ireland” (PhD diss., Queen Mary University of London, 2012), 110, http://qmro.qmul.ac.uk/jspui/handle/123456789/2516.

130^ A. Goukasyan, “V Karabakhe Reshaetsya Ne Politicheskaya Zadacha, a Vopros Vyzhyvaniya Naroda [The Problem in Karabakh Is Not Political, but the Question of Survival of People],” Karabakhskiy Kourier 3, no. 18 (2006): 17.

131^ Kevin Devlin, “‘L’Unita on ‘Armenian Document Sent to Kremlin",” Radio Free Europe Background Report/39 (USSR), March 11, 1988, http://osaarchivum.org/files/holdings/300/8/3/pdf/139-3-232.

132^ Dmitri Furman, Azerbaijan i Rossia: Obshestvo i Gosudarstvo [Azerbaijan and Russia: Society and State] (Moscow: Letnii Sad, 2001), 122–123.

133^ Cheterian, War and Peace in the Caucasus, 2009, 96.

134^ Christoph Zürcher Jan Koehler, “The Art of Losing the State: Weak Empire to Weak Nation- State around Nagorno-Karabakh,” 2003, 149.

135^ Elizabeth Fuller, “Armenians Demonstrate for Return of Territories from Azerbaijan,” Radio Liberty Research Bulletin (München) 441, no. 87 (1987): 1–3.

136^ Jan Koehler, “The Art of Losing the State,” 152.

137^ Soviet sources indicate steady growth in Nagorno-Karabakh region. For example, in 1973 and 1988, industrial production of agricultural goods increased by 1.5, and industrial production was 3 times bigger, See in: “Nagornyi Karabakh: Pograma Rozvitija [Nagorno-Karabakh: Development Program],” Izvestija, March 25, 1988.

138^ Suren Zoljan, Nagornyi-Karabakh: Problema I Konflict [Nagorno-Karabakh: Problem and Conflict] (Moscow: Lingva, 2001).

139^ Ronald Grigor Suny, Looking toward Ararat: Armenia in Modern History (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1993), 196.

140^ Mark Malkasian, Gha-Ra-Bagh!, 133.

141^ Ohannes Geukjian, “The Politicization of the Environmental Issue in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Nationalist Movement in the South Caucasus 1985–1991,” Nationalities Papers 35, no. 2 (2007): 236, doi:10.1080/00905990701254334.

142^ Mark Malkasian, Gha-Ra-Bagh!, 33.

143^ Nairit was a chemical plant in Yerevan, which produced low-cost synthetic rubber. The second target was the nuclear power plant at Medzamor, near Yerevan. “In 1983 there was a real nuclear threat but the authorities tried to minimize the danger. The consequences of a nuclear accident at Medzamor would be a second genocide,” Geukjian, “The Politicization of the Environmental Issue in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Nationalist Movement in the South Caucasus 1985–1991,” 238.

144^ Christopher J. Walker, Armenia and Karabagh: The Struggle for Unity (London: Minority Rights Group, 1991), 123.

145^ Mark Malkasian, Gha-Ra-Bagh!, 29.

146^ Walker, Armenia and Karabagh, 123.

147^ Michael P. Croissant, The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Causes and Implications (Westport, Conn: Praeger, 1998), 30.

148^ Sanan Mirzayev, “The Conflicting Theories of Ethnic Conflict: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh” (Thesis, Central European University, 2007), 24.

149^ Cheterian, War and Peace in the Caucasus, 2009, 97.

150^ “Zasedanie Politburo TSK KPSS 29 Fevralja 1988 [Politburo meeting 29 February 1988],” Rodina, 1994, sec. 4.

151^ Human Rights Watch, “Azerbaijan: Seven Years of Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh,” 1994, http://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/reports/AZER%20Conflict%20in%20N-K%20Dec94.pdf.

152^ Suny, Looking toward Ararat, 210.

153^ N. Fraser, K. Hipel, J. Jaworsky, and R. Zuljan, “A Conflict Analysis of the Armenian-Azerbaijan Dispute,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 1990, 668.

154^ Suren Zoljan, Nagornyi-Karabakh: Problema I Konflict [Nagorno-Karabakh: Problem and Conflict].

155^ Arif Yunusov, Karabakh: Past and Present (Baku, 2005), http://www.historyoftruth.com/ebook/kitab20100507055128666.pdf.

156^ “Communique,” Bakinsky Rabochii, March 1, 1988; R. Talyshinskii, “Sumgait: Sledstviu Meshaut Sluxi,” Izvestija, March 30, 1988.

157^ “On the Situation in Sumgait,” Bakinsky Rabochii, March 3, 1988.

158^ Y. Arakelan, Z. Kadymbekov and G. Ovcharenko, “Emocii I Razum. O Sobytijax v Nagornom Karabakhe I Vokrug Nego [Emotions and Consciousness. The Events in Nagorno-Karabakh and around It],” Pravda, March 5, 1988.

159^ “On the Situation in Sumgait.”

160^ Cheterian, War and Peace in the Caucasus, 2009, 88.

161^ Y. Mahmudov and K. Shukurov, Garabagh - Real History, Facts, Documents (Tahsil Publishing House, 2005), http://www.abebooks.co.uk/Garabagh-Real-History-facts-documents-Mahmudov/6560067503/bd.

162^ Sarkysian 1988:2.

163^ Bill Keller, “Soviets Claim Control in Baku: Scores of Azerbaijani Killed: Coup Averted Gorbachov Says,” New York Times, January 21, 1990.

164^ Burbyga Nikolai, “Na Zheleznoi Doroge Zakavkazija [On the Railway Transcaucasia],” Izvestija, February 14, 1990; Elizabeth Fuller, “Nagorno-Karabakh and the Rail Blockade,” Report on the USSR 2, December 28, 1990, sec. 52.

165^ Mark Saroyan, “The ‘Karabakh Syndrome’ and Azerbaijani Politics Problems of Communism,” Problems of Communism, 1990, 14–29.

166^ For detailed information about Operation Ring see: David E. Murphy, “Operation ‘ring’ the Black Berets in Azerbaijan,” The Journal of Soviet Military Studies 5, no. 1 (1992): 80–96, doi:10.1080/13518049208430053.

167^ Geukjian, “The Politicization of the Environmental Issue in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Nationalist Movement in the South Caucasus 1985–1991,” 247.

168^ Jan Koehler, “The Art of Losing the State,” 159.

169^ “Moscow Domestic Service,” December 2, 1989, 12–13.

170^ “Constitution (Fundamental Law) of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, Adopted at the Seventh (Special) Session of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR, Ninth Convocation on 7 October 1977” (Novosti Press Agency Publishing House Moscow, 1985), http://www.constitution.org/cons/ussr77.txt.

171^ Shale Horowitz, “Explaining Post-Soviet Ethnic Conflicts: Using Regime Type to Discern the Impact and Relative Importance of Objective Antecedents,” Nationalities Papers 29, no. 4 (2001): 641, doi:10.1080/00905990120102129.

172^ Mark Malkasian, Gha-Ra-Bagh!, 201.

173^ Sanan Mirzayev, “The Conflicting Theories of Ethnic Conflict: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh,” 36.

174^ Laurence Broers ed, The Limits of Leadership: Elites and Societies in the Nagorny Karabakh Peace Process, Conciliation Resources (London, 2005), http://www.c-r.org/resources/limits-leadership-elites-and-societies-nagorny-karabakh-peace-process.

175^ Waal, Black Garden, 82.

176^ Abbasov Shahin, “Azerbaijan: Achievements and Missed Opportunities,” in South Caucasus–20 Years of Independence (Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, 2011), 109, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/georgien/08706.pdf.

177^ Shale Horowitz, “War After Communism: Effects on Political and Economic Reform in the Former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia,” Journal of Peace Research 40, no. 1 (January 1, 2003): 37, doi:10.1177/0022343303040001204.

178^ Abbasov Shahin, “Azerbaijan: Achievements and Missed Opportunities,” 108; Mark Malkasian, Gha-Ra-Bagh!, 201.

179^ Geukjian, “The Politicization of the Environmental Issue in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh’s Nationalist Movement in the South Caucasus 1985–1991,” 248.

180^ “Dorogie Karabakhci [Dear Karabakhians],” Armjanskii Vestnik No 8, August 1990.

181^ Graham Smith, The Nationalities Question in the Post-Soviet States, 2 Sub edition (London ; New York: Longman Pub Group, 1996), 13.

182^ Baku Domestic Service, 14 July 1988 in FBIS-SOV, #88-135, p.: 41.

183^ Sanan Mirzayev, “The Conflicting Theories of Ethnic Conflict: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh,” 34.

184^ Laurence Broers ed, The Limits of Leadership.

185^ Nina Caspersen, “Regimes and Peace Processes: Democratic (non)development in Armenia and Azerbaijan and Its Impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict,” Communist and Post-Communist Studies, In Search of Legitimacy: Post-Soviet De Facto States Between Institutional Stabilization and Political Transformation, 45, no. 1–2 (March 2012): 134, doi:10.1016/j.postcomstud.2012.03.005.

186^ Ismet Gaibov and Azad Sharifov, Armenskii Terrorism (Baku: Azerbaijan, 1991), 6.

187^ It is hard to find exact number of victims. According to Azerbaijani sources, the list of 636 names exists, most of them women, children, and old people. The Investigation Group of the Public Prosecutor of Azerbaijan documented 485 dead people, 487 wounded, and over 500 captured. Arif Yunusov, Karabakh: Past and Present, 43.

188^ Waal, Black Garden, 172–173.

189^ Cheterian, War and Peace in the Caucasus, 2009, 131.

190^ Waal, Black Garden, 134.

191^ Croissant, The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict, 96; Also cited in Cheterian, War and Peace in the Caucasus, 2009, 142.

192^ Waal, Black Garden, 206; Caspersen, “Regimes and Peace Processes,” 134.

193^ According to Azerbaijani President Aliyev at the end of 1993, Azerbaijan counted 11,000 dead and 25,000 wounded in the armed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The number of casualties has varied greatly because of inaccurate statistics and because of propaganda needs. The majority of sources agrees that 11,000 Azerbaijanis and 6,000 Armenians were killed and 30,000 Azerbaijanis and over 20,000 Armenians were injured between February 1988 and April 1994. The list of Azerbaijanis killed during the first year of the conflict is available at http://karabakh.org/ethnic-cleansing-1987-94/list-of-killed-2/.

194^ Nina M. Birkeland, Edmund Jennings and Elizabeth J. Rushing (eds.), Global Overview 2011. People Internally Displaced by Conflict and Violence (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre and Norwegian Refugee Council, April 2012), 61–65, http://www.unhcr.org/IDMC/IDMC-report.pdf.

195^Crisis Group Europe Briefing, Armenia and Azerbaijan:A Season of Risks (Baku,Yerevan,Tbilisi,Brussels: International Crisis Group, September 26, 2013), http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/caucasus/b071-armenia-and-azerbaijan-a-season-of-risks.pdf.

196^ Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, “Nagorno-Karabakh Issue. Position of Armenia on Nagorno-Karabakh.”

197^ Arch Puddington, Freedom in the World 2012. The Arab Uprisings And Their Global Repercussions (Freedom House, 2012), 14, http://www.freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/inline_images/FIW%202012%20Booklet--Final.pdf.

198^ Caspersen, “Regimes and Peace Processes,” 135.

199^ “Azerbaijan Has Second Highest Military Expenditure in CIS,” News AZ, February 22, 2011, http://www.news.az/articles/politics/31785.

200^ Ilham Aliyev, “Speech by Ilham Aliyev at the Official Military Parade on the Occasion of the 95th Anniversary of the Armed Forces” (Prezident of Azerbaijan, June 23, 2013), http://en.president.az/articles/8574; “Azerbaijan Budet Narashivat Voennuju Mosh Do Reshenija Karabakhskou Problemy - President [Azerbaijan Will Increase Its Military Power to Resolve the Karabakh Problem - President],” Iterfax-Azerbaijan, June 26, 2013, http://interfax.az/view/578122.

201^ “Prezident Azerbaijana Prizval Armiu Byt Gotovoi K Voine Za Karabakh [President of Azerbaijan Called Army to Be Ready for War in Karabakh],” ZN,UA, June 26, 2013, http://zn.ua/WORLD/prezident-azerbaydzhana-prizval-armiyu-byt-gotovoy-k-voyne-za-karabah-124657_.html.

202^ Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War, Policy Breifing (Tbilisi,Baku,Yerevan,Istanbul,Brussels: International Crisis Group, February 8, 2011), 3, http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/europe/caucasus/B60%20Armenia%20and%20Azerbaijan%20---%20Preventing%20War.pdf.

203^ Yurii Roks, “Prinuzhdenie K Voine [Coercion to War],” Nezavisimaja Gazeta, November 10, 2010, http://www.ng.ru/cis/2010-11-10/1_karabah.html.

204^ Ilham Aliyev, “Speech by Ilham Aliyev at the Official Military Parade on the Occasion of the 95th Anniversary of the Armed Forces.”

205^ For example, it is very hard to trace the beginning of Abkhazian antagonism towards Georgians. Local historians underline historical injustice and suggest the idea that „Abkhazia is not Georgia.“ See more in Zhorzholiani, G. (2000): Istoricheskie i politicheskie korni konflikta v Abkhazii, p. 7. Some researchers claim that Abkhazians have North Caucasian origins and live across the Black Sea region since ancient times. Others claim that Abkhazians came to this territory in the first and second century AD. One of the theories claims that Abkhazians moved to Abkhazia in the 17th century, and they called themselves „Apsua“ in Mariam Lortkipanidze,