Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Iraq Instability Turns Genocide

Iraqi instability leads to militant groups targeting and violently killing groups of people.

Maples 6 (Lieutenant General Michael U.S. Army Director, Defense Intelligence Agency “The Current Situation in Iraq and Afghanistan”)AQB

The conflict is unquestionably complex and difficult. The fight to define post-Saddam Iraq has been primarily an intra-Arab struggle to determine how power and authority will be distributed. Iraqi nationalists, ex-Baathists, former military, angry Sunni, Jihadists, foreign fighters, and al Qaida provide an overlapping, complex and multi-polar Sunni insurgent and terrorist environment. Shia militias and Shia militants, some Kurdish Peshmerga, and extensive criminal activity further contribute to violence, instability, and insecurity. The U.S. presence obscured the true nature of this fight between and among competing groups for power as observers focused on insurgent attacks and rhetoric directed at the United States. Today, DIA assesses the conditions for the further deterioration of security and instability exists within this ongoing, violent struggle for power. Although a significant breakdown of central authority has not occurred, Iraq has moved closer to this possibility primarily because of weak governance, increasing security challenges, and no agreement on a national compact. The conflict has changed in character, scope, and dynamics and is increasingly a sectarian struggle for power and the right to define Iraq’s future identity. Overall attacks averaged approximately 180 per day in October 2006, up from approximately 170 the previous month, and 70 in January 2006. Daily average of attacks against Iraqi Security Forces in October more than doubled the number reported in January, approximately 30 compared to 13. Daily average of attacks on civilians in October was four times higher than reported in January, approximately 40 compared to 10. The perception of unchecked violence is creating an atmosphere of fear and hardening sectarianism which is empowering militias and vigilante groups, hastening middle-class exodus, and shaking confidence in government and security forces. Sectarian violence, a weak central government, problems in basic services, and high unemployment are causing more Iraqis to turn to sectarian groups, militias, and insurgents for basic needs, imperiling Iraqi unity.

Iraq Instability Turns Human Rights

An unstable Iraq would foster a humanitarian crisis.

Carroll 8(Conn Assistant Director for The Heritage Foundation's Strategic Communications, “Morning Bell: Iraqi Stability Is in the U.S. Interest” March 31 The Heritage Foundation)AQB

The premature British withdrawal from Basra allowed militias to flourish. Basra is one part of Iraq the surge has never been tried. Absent a strong stabilizing force, like the U.S. troops in Baghdad, rival militias and criminal gangs have filled the security vacuum. While the long-term presence of American combat troops is not in the interests of the United States or the Iraqi government, helping the Iraqis get on the road to peace and stability is clearly in the U.S. interest. The eruption of a full-blown civil war in Iraq and a wide-spread humanitarian crisis could further destabilize the region. Abandoning the people of Iraq would enable Iran’s regional expansion and al Qaeda’s effort to establish a sanctuary in the heart of the Middle East. Turning its back on Iraq would lead America’s other friends and allies, including those trying to finish off al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to question America’s commitment and resolve. There is no way to achieve these important goals without patiently maintaining a strong American military presence on the ground for at least several years to come.

Iraq Instability Solves Regional Stability

Stability in Iraq helps foster peace and stability in the Middle East.

Carafano and Phillips 8(James Ph.D., is Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies and James Senior Research Fellow for Middle Eastern Affairs in the Allison Center at The Heritage Foundation, “Iraq: Pause in Troop Drawdown Makes Sense” March 28 The Heritage Foundation)AQB

Winning in Iraq and helping the Iraqis get on the road to peace and stability is clearly in America's interest. The eruption of a full-blown civil war in Iraq and a wide-spread humanitarian crisis could further destabilize the region. Abandoning the people of Iraq would enable Iran's regional expansion and al-Qaeda's effort to establish a sanctuary in the heart of the Middle East. Turning its back on Iraq would lead America's other friends and allies, including those trying to finish-off al-Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, to question American commitment and resolve. Finally, a stable and prosperous Iraq would do much to stimulate progress throughout the region or at least help to prevent it from becoming even more unstable. There is no way to achieve these important goals without patiently maintaining a strong American military presence on the ground for at least several years to come. The Bush Administration and Congress must give the commander on the ground the resources to get the job done. Both should weigh carefully the recommendations of General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker when they testify before Congress next month.

Iraq stability prevents the Taliban from destabilizing the region.

The Jordan Times 6/28/10(“Jordanian king holds talks with Iraqi president, US committee” Lexis)AQB

Amman, 28 June: His Majesty King Abdallah on Sunday [27 June] held talks with Iraq's President Jalal Talabani, which focused on bilateral ties and current regional issues. The two leaders stressed their keenness to boost bilateral relations in all fields, particularly in the economic and commercial fields to serve the interests of the two countries, a Royal Court statement said. During a one-on-one meeting followed by another meeting attended by senior officials from both countries, King Abdullah reiterated Jordan's support for Iraq's efforts in bringing about stability and security in the eastern neighbour, which, he said, is a main pillar of the region's stability and security. King Abdullah and Talabani stressed the need to enforce joint Arab cooperation and to achieve a unified stance to face current issues and challenges. Talks, which continued over a lunch banquet, also covered the latest developments in the region and issues of mutual concern, the statement said. Talabani, who concluded his brief visit to the Kingdom Sunday, was seen off at the airport by Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh. Also yesterday, King Abdullah met with a delegation from the American Jewish Committee (AJC). Talks focused on efforts being exerted to achieve comprehensive and permanent peace in the region. The Monarch highlighted the importance of achieving progress in peace efforts and to end the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the basis of a two-state solution and within comprehensive regional context. His Majesty noted that security and stability in the region will not be achieved unless a peace agreement is reached that guarantees the rights of all the parties. Prime Minister Samir Rifai and Judeh also discussed Mideast peace in separate meetings with the AJC delegates, whose organization supports the two-state solution.