Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Indo-Pak War Turns Prolif

Indo-Pak war deepens the arms race in Southeast Asia and allows prolif to spread globally
Glardon 5 (Thomas L., Lt. Colonel for USAF, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/ksil12.pdf) GAT

Finally, nuclear arsenals have complicated relations between India and Pakistan by threatening to ignite an arms race by complicating minor conventional clashes and/or magnifying proliferation concerns. RAND suggests the 1999 crisis taught the belligerents the necessity for an arms race – Pakistan learned that it “may require the largest, most diversified, and most effective arsenal possible …” for early use in conventional crises xxi and India learned it must develop “rapid-response capabilities primarily for shoring up deterrence.”xxii This arms race destabilizes the region and threatens the world because the belligerents appear to view nuclear weapons as a viable alternative to continued conventional clashes. Should a crisis erupt, Pakistan’s conventional inferiority may lead to an escalation that will impact lives across South Asia, and the physical and economic well-being of the world.xxiii As well, the financial crises of Pakistan and the immaturity of both programs conspire to provide questionable security for the nuclear arsenals and a chance for nuclear mistakes. Cordesman states “in theory, such weapons are … under tight security … in practice, no one knows if the Pakistani assurances relating to such weapons are true.”xxiv The U.S. cannot be sure that nuclear technology will not proliferate across borders into such regions as Afghanistan, Iran, Burma … or even to non-state actors such as terrorists or international criminals. Indeed, the proliferation network of A.Q. Khan, former director of the Pakistani atomic research lab, apparently transferred technology to Iran, North Korea, and Libya, and belies such assurances.xxv Thus, these developments magnify the dangers of even minor border skirmishes. In the 2001 crisis, the U.S. launched a “frenzy of high-level activity of diplomatic activity to prevent war” even though observers have suggested the military posturing of both states were more for international attention than for war.xxvi Thus, the regional disputes over a small territory such as Kashmir now can hold the world hostage.

Indo-Pak War Turns China

Sino-Pak alliance ensures that the conflict would draw China in
Sud 8 (Hari, former intl. rel. manager, http://www.upiasia.com/Politics/2008/09/09/the_china-pakistan_alliance_against_india/2277/) GAT

With Pakistan’s military dictator General Pervez Musharraf gone, it is time to review China and Pakistan relations. In the past nine years during Musharraf’s rule, Pakistan built a very close relationship with China who provided Musharraf with strategic military support when he needed it most, including during the 1999 Kargil conflict with India. Although China did not approve of Musharraf’s military incursion in Kargil, they made it clear to India that Pakistan should not be touched should India follow its victory in Kargil with a military adventure of its own into Pakistan. Historically, China has been Pakistan’s strategic and military ally for the past 50 years. It was China who gave Pakistan the designs for a nuclear bomb in 1984 and then helped them build it. China also assisted Pakistan by providing missile technology via North Korea, Chinese-made fighter jets and specialized small arms. They also helped in the construction of the Gwadar port, a civilian nuclear reactor and have promised to build a large dam on the Indus River. China’s has two purposes behind its assistance to Pakistan. First, it takes Pakistan as a secure friend and ally in the Indian Ocean and second, they share a common interest to contain India. It is no secret that China showered Musharraf with military gifts, mostly Chinese copies of Russian military hardware. In the last ten years, China has stepped up its military presence in Tibet, primarily to contain India. Their aim is to capture as much of Indian Territory as possible, including the town of Tawang – the birthplace of the Dalai Lama – in case of renewed hostilities. A secondary purpose for this buildup is to help Pakistan in any future military conflict with India. In the last 15 years, Pakistani-trained terrorists have caused a reign of terror in Kashmir, killing and bombing Hindus and Muslims alike and damaging civilian property. However, India’s response has been hamstrung by a special situation: Pakistan became friends with the United States, under the pretext of containing the war on terror, and at the same time shared a cordial and friendly relationship with China for the sake of maintaining strategic balance. This has prevented India from punishing Pakistan for all of the bombings and terror activities. With the demise of the former Soviet Union, India has had no one to turn to for strategic support. India is aware of this special situation, which has done little to combat terrorist activities in Kashmir and the rest of India. To free up some military resources and unhinge the China-Pakistan alliance, India has, in last ten years, attempted to engage China in a serious dialogue on these issues, but to no avail. China demands the town of Tawang as a minimum price and it is uncertain whether China would cease its support for Pakistan if India were to concede it. How do China and Pakistan compliment each other’s activities in South Asia? For all of China’s support, Pakistan has returned the favor in kind. First, as stated above, Pakistan could not have built their atomic bomb from stolen centrifuge designs. Someone else had to help them convert the concentrated Uranium 235 into a bomb. China’s assistance was vital. Also, if the bomb could not be miniaturized and loaded into a missile, it would be useless; once again, the Chinese stepped in and persuaded North Korea to help Pakistan build these missiles. Second, the construction project of the Gwadar port was initiated by China. It wanted to monitor the movement of global oil supplies from the Persian Gulf and Pakistan provided this window to them. Soon, China will station their naval fleet at Gwadar, under one pretext or another, and start a cold war in the Indian Ocean. Gwadar is located on Pakistan’s coastline with the Arabian Sea, an area of no economic value whatsoever. The nearest population base is 400 miles away and another US$4 billion is needed to build the civil infrastructure to develop the port. So, the only benefit for Pakistan is that it would serve as another operational base for its navy in the event of any conflict with India. Third, China wanted to lay their hands on American military technology. Pakistan stepped in to provide China with F-16 parts for reverse engineering. China has also engineered copies of stolen hand-held Afghan-Soviet era antiaircraft missiles, thanks to Pakistan, which supplied them. An unexploded Tomahawk cruise missile, which was fired at an Al Qaeda base, under President Clinton’s orders after the 1998 Nairobi bombing, was handed over to the Chinese who have copied it. Thus, China has benefited immensely from its relationship with Pakistan. Strategically, both China and Pakistan are keeping an eye on India. Although China’s military is mostly focused on Taiwan and Russia, from Tibet, China is keeping an eye on India. Due to China’s military commitments elsewhere, it is impossible for China to fight a ground battle with India as it did in 1962. Besides, India has expanded its own military potential immensely and can counter any moves by China. China believes that a strong military thrust could bring its military close to the town of Tawang, which is only 20 miles from the border. But, in response, India could destroy the much-heralded Qinghai-Tibet railway. Its destruction is within India’s capability, since a large portion of the railway is on permafrost. This action would stop the Chinese dead in their tracks and would be a great loss of face for them. In return, China might target India’s economic lifelines. But the superior U.S. and Israeli military technology that India has may frustrate the Chinese efforts. Thus, Pakistan has become very important to China. As China amasses troops for action against India, it may be a cue for Pakistan to do the same. Joint military action between them is completely harmful to India’s interests. During the 1971 India-Pakistan war that led to the liberation of Bangladesh, President Nixon asked China to amass troops in Tibet along India’s border. But a Soviet warning to China stopped it from doing so. With the end of the Soviet Union, replaced by a new Russia with a mind of its own, it is difficult to predict the future with any certainty.