Global outlook c h a p t e r 1

A. GDP decline in historical 
comparison
B. Personal consumption 
expenditures and disposable income
C. Selected indicators of economic 
activity 
D. Long-term unemployment

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In 
commodity exporters
, the dual shock of 
pandemic-related economic disruptions and 
plunging commodity prices generated substantial 
headwinds to activity in 2020. The rebound in 
industrial production across commodity exporters 
has been tepid, with production remaining below 
pre-pandemic levels (figure 1.11.F). The weakness 
reflects a decline in extractive investment and, for 
oil exporters, OPEC+ oil production cuts and
still-subdued oil prices (World Bank 2020c). 
In several 
low-income countries,
rising caseloads 
forced governments to keep some containment 
measures in effect during the second half of
2020 (Ethiopia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Uganda; 
box 1.2). In all, output in LICs is estimated to 
have shrunk 0.9 percent in 2020—the group’s 
first contraction in a generation. Among fragile 
and conflict-affected LICs—already struggling 
with limited fiscal space and state capacity—the 
collapse in activity was far steeper, with output 
falling by an estimated 3.9 percent (Afghanistan, 
Central African Republic). Output among other 
LICs also weakened appreciably, as tourism 
revenues tumbled, consumption fell, and invest-
ment came to a halt (Madagascar, Rwanda).
Outlook 
Growth outlook
COVID-19 has dealt a substantial blow to the 
outlook in all EMDE regions (box 1.3; chapter 2). 
The pandemic is estimated to have erased at least 
10 years of per capita income gains in more than a 
quarter of EMDEs in 2020 (figure 1.12.A). 
EMDE output is projected to expand 5 percent in 
2021, predicated on firming external demand and 
improved pandemic management, aided by 
vaccine rollouts in major EMDEs (figure 1.12.B). 
Excluding China, however, growth for EMDEs 
this year will be more subdued, at only 3.4 
percent, reflecting lingering disruptions from 
outbreaks in many EMDEs. Despite the projected 
aggregate recovery in 2021, forecasts in roughly 
two-thirds of EMDEs were downgraded—
especially in Europe and Central Asia (ECA), 
where a number of economies are experiencing a 
sharp resurgence of the virus. 
private consumption was less severe in EMDEs 
that used available fiscal policy space to expand 
social safety nets and support employment. The 
resilience of remittances in some countries also 
helped to cushion the blow to households (figure 
1.11.D; Quayyum and Kpodar 2020; World Bank 
2020j). Despite these mitigating factors, mounting 
job losses resulted in labor incomes falling between 
10 to 15 percent across EMDE regions (figure 
1.11.E; ILO 2020).