26 FIGURE 1.13 Poverty and per capita income in emerging market and developing economies Global extreme poverty is set to rise markedly as a result of the pandemic, with sharp increases in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Relative to advanced economies, disruptions to schooling have, on average, been more prolonged in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), including in low-income countries. Such disruptions are likely to disproportionately affect more vulnerable groups owing to lack of access to distance learning. Although EMDE per capita incomes are projected to firm in 2021-22, their levels will remain well-below pre-pandemic trends. Sources : Lakner et al. (2021); UNESCO (database); UNICEF; World Bank; World Bank (2020m).
Note : EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies; LICs = low-income countries;
MICs = middle-income countries; SAR = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
A. Figure shows the additional number of people pushed into poverty by 2021 as a result of the
COVID-19 pandemic. Lower ends of the bars and whiskers reflect the baseline scenario; upper ends
reflect the downside scenario. The increase in extreme poverty headcounts by 2021 due to the
pandemic is calculated by comparing poverty using pre- and post-pandemic growth forecasts
available as of October 2020; the former are used as a counterfactual series for poverty in a world
without COVID-19 (Lakner et al. 2020).
B. Data correspond to the number of days country school systems in each grouping were categorized
as “closed due to COVID-19”. Countries where school systems are classified as “partially open” are
excluded. “EMDEs” excludes LICs. Last observation is December 16, 2020.
C. Bars denote averages. “Poorest” reflects the poorest income quintile, and “Richest” the richest
income quintile. Sample includes 15 MICs and 5 LICs that participated in the latest UNICEF Multiple
Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS6 in 2017-19).
D. Data are in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Shaded area indicates forecasts. Trend is assumed to
grow at the regression-estimated trend rate of 2010-19. Baseline output is latest baseline forecast
over 2020-22 and, for 2023 onwards, computed using long-term consensus forecasts published in
October 2020.
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