Global Economic Prospects – January 2022 Underlying data and charts can be found at

Global Economic Prospects January 2022 www.worldbank.org/gep

Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

Underlying data and charts can be found at

www.worldbank.org/gep

Global Growth Forecasts Substantial Slowdown

GDP growth

(Percent)

Regional Growth Forecasts Slowing Growth in Several Regions

GDP growth, by region

(Percent)

Uneven Global Recovery Weak Output and Investment; Lasting Scarring

Deviation of output with pre-pandemic trends by 2023

(Percent)

Deviation of investment from pre-pandemic trends

(Percent)

Risks Multiple; Possibility of Hard Landing

Interconnected Risks Higher Inflation; Tightening Financial Conditions

Inflation surprises

(Index, >0 = upside data surprise)

Financing conditions

(Index; January 1, 2021 = 100)

Income Inequality Increase Across and Within Countries

Change in between-country income inequality

(Point change; annualized)

Change in Gini index, 2020

(Points)

Commodity Cycles Dependence on Commodity Exports; Sharp Rebound in 2020; Larger Booms than Slumps

Commodity exports in EMDEs

(Percent of exports)

Energy prices and global recessions

(Percent change from previous year)

Amplitude of commodity cycles
(Percent)

Lessons from Past Debt Restructurings Elevated Debt in LICs; Past Restructurings Offered Substantial Debt Relief

Government debt in LICs

(Percent)

Debt relief granted

(Percent of stock of debt)

Number of debtor countries included

(Number)

Policy Priorities Measures to Ensure Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Growth

Monetary and Fiscal Policies Policy Tightening Underway; Space Limited

Policy rates in EMDEs

(Percent)

Fiscal impulse in EMDEs

(Percentage points of potential GDP)

Climate Challenges High Emissions Underscore Need for Green Transition

Change in greenhouse gas emissions

(Percent)

Share of renewables in global energy supply

(Percent)

Global Economic Prospects January 2022

www.worldbank.org/gep

Select Publications by EFI Prospects Group

• Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

(January and June)

• Commodity Markets Outlook – October 2021

(April and October)

• Global Monthly




• One-Stop Source: Global Database of Inflation – July 2021
• Inflation During the Pandemic “What Happened? What is Next?” – July 2021



• The Aftermath of Debt Surges – September 2021
• A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic – October 2021
• What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami – November 2021