Ч а с т ь I i I главный редактор

Keywords:
 Ministry of Energy and Water, River Basin Agency, Water Allocation, Water Forecast, Water Demand, Water Balance.
I
ntroduction
Freshwater is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential 
to sustain life, development and the environment. Since 
water sustains life, effective management of water resources 
demands a holistic approach, linking social and economic 
development with protection of natural ecosystems. Effective 
management links land and water uses across the whole of 
a catchment area or groundwater aquifer (Principal No. 1, 
Dublin Conference (1992)). Population and economic growth 
in developing countries will put significant pressure on the 
world's water resources to meet both future food requirements 
and water demands in the domestic, industrial and, increasingly, 
environmental sectors. The challenge is particularly great as 
water resources are seldom managed in an integrated manner, 
that is, trans-boundary or across water-using sectors (Claudia 
Ringler, 2001).
When multiple countries share a river, they compete over 
available water resources. The upstream country has the first 
option to use water, which may obstruct the overall efficiency 
of water use (Barrett 1994). Cooperation between upstream 
and downstream countries — in the form of a water allocation 
agreement — may increase the efficiency of water use. Whether 
cooperation is stable, however, depends on the design of 
the water allocation agreement. The majority of these water 
allocation agreements does not take into account the hydrologic 
variability of river flow (Giordano and Wolf 2003). This is a 
shortcoming because variability is an important characteristic 
of river flow. This variability will even increase in many river 
basins when the effects of climate change on temperature and 
precipitation proceed as projected by climate simulation models 
(IPCC 2007). These effects are expected to increase the var- 
iability of the annual and seasonal flow patterns as well as the 
frequency of extreme events in many river basins (Arnell 1999; 
Chalecki and Gleick 1999; Voss et al. 2002; R
ä
is
ä
nen et al. 2004).
The Panj Amu flows to the north-west into the Amu River 
(Amodarya) which drains to the Aral Sea. This river basin 
produces a large proportion of Afghanistan's agricultural 
production. It has a large potential for hydropower production 
for which there are plans to construct some major reservoirs but 
as yet relies only on the natural water storage in the mountains. 
Irrigation in this river basin is from canals which divert water 
mostly from the mid and lower river across the floodplain 
and terraces. Although the focus of water management work 
to date has been on irrigation, there are a number of other 
water management needs in the river basin. These include water 
allocation and distribution, management of the flood and water 
related disasters, urban and rural town water management, rural 
development and management of upper catchment areas and 
environmentally friendly management of the river channel and 
its environment.
The Panj Amu River Basin Agency is an established 
decentralized agency of the Ministry of Energy and Water, 

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