World Bank Document

Given the weakened external environment and the current policy framework, the 

medium term GDP growth forecast or Uzbekistan is for about 7 percent per annum, or 1 

point lower than in recent years, and with downside risks (Table 1). The government’s package 

of fiscal, private sector, and sectoral reform policies (especially for agriculture) are expected to 

help maintain agricultural growth averaging 6-7 percent annually, while industrial and service 

sectors are expected to expand more slowly due to trading partners’ lower growth and lower 

remittances.  Fiscal and external balances are expected to deteriorate but remain positive, with 

external debt increasing to around 19 percent of GDP by 2018.