World Bank Document

Figure 1: Consolidated Budget, 2004–15 (% GDP) 

 

Source: Uzbek authorities; Bank staff calculations. 

Figure 2: External Sector Indicators, 2005–15 (% GDP)    

 

 

Source: Uzbek authorities; Bank and IMF staff calculations. 

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gradually recovers; yet, the external environment is not expected to be as advantageous as 

during the boom commodity years.  The Russian economy’s recovery is expected to take several 

years, commodity prices are expected to edge up only slowly, and China’s economy is expected 

to remain strong but at growth rates which are expected to be somewhat lower than in previous 

years. Nevertheless, gas exports are expected to increase in 2017-18 with the completion of the 

additional pipeline to China. Mineral export volumes will likely plateau given a softening of 

demand from trading partners. Finally, climate change is likely to aggravate water, energy, and 

environmental constraints.  In light of these factors, economic growth and job creation in the 

medium term may have to rely less on the extractive and other heavy industries than in the past.  

To overcome these challenges, Uzbekistan may have to maintain the counter cyclical policies of 

the past few years, but also initiate an adjustment to the existing approach to development.  All 

this means that while Uzbekistan’s natural course of development would be a gradual transition 

from a factor driven to an efficiency driven economy, the external environment is requiring that 

this transition happen at a greater speed. 

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