The structure of the global catastrophe

Chapter 3. Global chemical contamination

The chemical weapon usually is not considered as the doomsday weapon. It is connected by that considerable quantities of poisonous substance are required for global contamination of atmosphere and also that this substance or is chemically unstable, or easily washed away from atmosphere. Global chemical contamination can occur because of sudden sharp gas-freeing of terrestrial bowels, for example, because of boiling up of gas hydrates under a sea-bottom. However the basic variant is eruption of a supervolcano with the big emission of gases. Process of accumulation of carbonic gas in terrestrial atmosphere for the account of burning of fossil fuel too can be considered as a part of "gas-freeing of bowels”. Other possible reasons is large failure on chemical plant, result of activity of genetically modified organisms in biosphere, and, at last, conscious application of the chemical weapon. In science fiction the variant of loss of poisonous chemical substances from a comet kernel was considered. The major factor transforming the chemical weapon in global threat is the unity of terrestrial atmosphere. Therefore in this chapter we will consider also a number of other factors which action spread through atmosphere.

In this connection it is useful to count, what quantities and what gases can completely poison terrestrial atmosphere. It is thus clear that much easier to resist to gases and poisons by means of gas masks and refuges, than to radiation and bioagents. For uniform contamination of all Earth with the strongest nerve gas VX would require not less than 100 thousand tons of this reagent (if to start with the estimation one deadly dose on 1 sq. metre, that is 200 mkg). However in the First World War of all it has been used 120 thousand tons different poison gases. Approximately as much (94 thousand tons) herbicides has been used in the war in Vietnam. Modern world's store of poison gases is estimated in 80 thousand tons though exact data on stocks don’t exist. It is thus clear that the chemical weapon was not a priority direction of warfare, and it have made much less, than could be made. It is clear also, that the question of uniform distribution (that is deliveries) is not simple. Gas VX keeps in a cold climate very long, but at heat decays for some days. However theoretically probably to make and extend millions tons of this gas or similar and to create global threat. (This problem with development of designing of the genetically modified organisms will especially become simpler.)

Lethal dose of toxin of a botulism - about 0,1 mkg. (It means, that for destruction of mankind is needed several hundreds grammes), but it is very unstable in an environment.

The lethal dose of dioxine - about 1 mkg (there are different estimations), however it can remain decades years in the environment and collect in organisms. Leak about 25 kg of dioxine in Seveso in Italy has caused contamination 17 sq. km. From here it is possible to conclude, that on full contamination of the Earth it is required 500 000 - 1 000 000 tons of dioxine. It is equal to volume of several large bulk-oil tankers. Possibly, industrially developed state could produce such volume for some years.

Scenarios of gradual accumulation in an environment of the substances which danger was unevident in the beginning are possible also. So was with freons, destroying an ozone layer, and dioxins. Probably also accumulation of many chemicals which separately do not give big lethality, together could create very heavy background. It usually is called «adverse ecological conditions».

Other variant is full change of a chemical compound of atmosphere or loss of properties of its suitability for breath. A certain powerful source of chemical substances is necessary for this purpose. It can be terrestrial volcanism which will be discussed further. Other candidates: gas hydrates on an ocean floor - the poisoning with methane, or water steam if somehow all water to evaporate (is possible at irreversible global warming).

The functional structure of chemical catastrophe consists in a poisoning of air with poison or loss by atmosphere of properties of ability to support a life: that is to feed with its oxygen, to protect from radiation, to support the necessary temperature mode. Chemical catastrophe threatens terrestrial biosphere even more than man who can put on a gas mask, but without biosphere mankind cannot live yet. As such catastrophe has rather passive character from it will rather simply to be protected from it in bunkers.

Improbable variants:

 Poisoning by carbon dioxide over a limit at which a human can breathe without a survival threat (it is improbable as there is no such quantity of minerals - only in case of a certain natural catastrophe). However considerable quantity CO2 can be pulled out from volcanoes. For example, Venus is surrounded by atmosphere from CO2 a hundred times thicker than terrestrial atmosphere, and, possibly, the most part of this substance was allocated from bowels, and under some assumptions, rather recently. On the other hand, on Venus there is no carbon cycle, as on the Earth.

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  Formation of a significant amount of not biogene oxygen as a result of deoxidization of iron oxid in bowels of the Earth which it can through 600 million years completely poisons atmosphere as assumes O.G. Sorotihin. This scenario could be worsen by the situation if somewhere under a surface considerable quantities of this or other gas have already accumulated, and then they are pulled out on a surface. However, Sorotihin’s statements about not biogene oxygen are exposed to criticism. Gases pulling out on a surface from bowels will not only poison atmosphere. They will be heated to thousand degrees. And if there will be a massive emission of gases (or waters) they not only will poison atmosphere, but also sterilises a surface by the heat. (Recently there was a publication that is deep near the Earth was found out «water oceans», but actually there it is a question only about raised - 0,1 % - concentration of water in stones.)
  
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  Catastrophic allocation of methane from gas hydrates in tundra and on a sea-bottom, that not only will strengthen greenhouse properties of atmosphere, but also, probably, will poison it.
  
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  Other variant - allocation of huge quantities of hydrogen from terrestrial bowels (there are assumptions, that in the centre of its Earth is a lot of it) - See Syvorotkin V. L «Ecological aspects of decontamination of the Earth». Hydrogen also destroys ozone layer. Also eruption of huge quantities of oil if the theory about abiogenic an origin of oil is true is possible and huge quantities of hydrocarbons have collected deeply in the Earth. And drilling of more and more deep chinks proceeds.
  
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  Exhaustion oxygen in atmosphere as a result some process, for example, at oxidation of the hydrogen allocated from bowels. (But burning of fuel during thousand years it is not enough for this purpose.) Sudden allocation and combustion of a considerable quantity of combustible substance can be such process. Or oxygen exhaustion as a result action of genetically modified organisms which have left from under the control, for example, of something like nitrogen-fixing bacteria. At last, as a result of the photosynthesis termination at simultaneously continuation of burning of mineral fuel. « It is counted up, that green plants make all oxygen of terrestrial atmosphere (1200 billion tons) to geological measures almost instantly - for 3700 years! But if the terrestrial vegetation is lost - free oxygen will very quickly disappear: it again will incorporate to organic substance, will be a part some carbonic acid, and also will oxidise iron in rocks». We have about one million billions tons of oxygen in atmosphere, plus a large quantity dissolved in water. Quantity of fossil fuel which we have oxidised for all history or we are going to oxidise, it is measured thousand billions tons, that is much less. But if we undermine abilities of biosphere to regeneration, and then we will lose technologies, slow reduction of level of oxygen will be global catastrophe. According to some information, the largest Perm extinction has been connected with sharp falling of level of oxygen in air for the unknown reason (J. Leslie).
  
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  Falling of a comet with a considerable quantity of poisonous gases.
  
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  «Black inflow» - a poisoning of world ocean by spillover of considerable quantity of oil. It cannot directly kill people, but can critically undermine food chains in biosphere and break manufacture of oxygen and absorption of carbonic gas (that conducts to warming) and, finally, to translate mankind in a postapocalyptic stage. Other variants of a poisoning of world ocean are also possible.
  
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  Blowout of atmosphere of the Earth. It could be caused by a very strong explosion giving to a bigger part of the atmosphere the second space speed, solar flash or sudden heating.
  
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  Calcination of the atmospheres. Here I mean not global warming, as complex gradual phenomena, but short-term heating of atmosphere as a result of certain processes. A.Portnov in article «As was lost a life on Mars» assumes, that magnetic red sand (maggemit) on Mars were formed during bombardment of the planet by splinters of its large companion that has led to heating to 800-1000 degrees at which there is possible a formation of such minerals. Similar adjournment by it are found out in Yakutia where the large asteroid in diameter about 10 km has fallen 35 million years ago and has left the Popigajsky crater (and also, probably, has caused the next large extinction of live beings). Probably, that at certain high energy events huge dense high-temperature clouds which extend on a surface on thousand kilometres can be formed. Their example can be pyroclastic clouds at eruption of modern volcanoes which move on a surface of the earth or the sea with the big speed and on considerable distances and have in itself temperature of an order of 1000 degrees. As such clouds opaque, they are slowly cooled by radiation. Other possible reasons of calcination - an irradiation (for example, the fragments of the asteroid which has been thrown out highly in a stratosphere and fiery sphere from explosion of supernova) or very heavy hot gas (heavy enough not to float in air - heavy hydrocarbons?)
  
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  Autocatalytic reaction extending on all surface of the Earth in the spirit of ice-9 from the novel of K.Vonnegut « Cat's Cradle ». But there are no bases to think that such reaction is possible. (Though there was a case when the medicine for AIDS has spontaneously formed new isomere, possessing prion property - catalyze formation of the similar isomere which has superseded the correct form of a crystal from all factories in the world and has stopped manufacture.) Or creation of the artificial catalyst which extremely effectively is carrying out a certain reaction, which products are fatal for all live.
  

My value judgment of probability of global chemical contamination is in order of 0,1 % on all XXI century. This probability is now especially small, as there are no such technologies, and it will decrease, when means molecular nanotechnology manufactures which can quickly clear atmosphere will enough develop or at least protect people from contamination (if they do not cause such catastrophe).

Conclusion: though theoretical possibility of a poisoning of all atmosphere gases is available, it is blocked by possibility of creation of toxic and epidemiological bioagents. Any organisation or the state which can aspire to a poisoning of all biosphere, is able to do it by means of genetic designing much easier and more cheaply. Moreover, human can go through such poisoning in the bunker or neutralise its by antidotes, probably, made by means of biotechnologies. Nevertheless, the sudden and considerable poisoning of air can be the factor which will create one of variants of the postapocalyptic world.

Conclusions about technologically ready risks

Recognising that a certain risk it is technologically ready, it is not necessary to dump from accounts inevitability of the further technological perfection in this area, and also probability of fundamental discovery in this area or connected with it. Thus it is important to understand, that the dangers created by new technologies, always more than dangers from former technologies, at least because any new technologies can reiforce efficiency of former technologies.

The risks, which occurrence it seems inevitable, proceeding from current character of development of technologies

Further we consider development of technologies, as the self-sufficient tendency, which is not influenced by any external crises and risks (and also does not depend on human will). It is obvious one-wayness of this point of view. Later we will consider how realisation of those or other big and small risks can affect development of technologies and their ability to generate new risks.