The structure of the global catastrophe

Terms

In this work a number of terms is used in following meanings (more about each term will be explained in the text):

Doomsday argument - a reasoning on Carter-Lesli, in abbreviated form - DA.

NBIC-convergence - means the tendency observed in a modern science to merge and information interchange, methods and results between four key technologies nano-bio-info-cogno.

The agent - substance, a virus, a bacterium or any other extending factor of influence causing death.

Global catastrophe - the event leading to irreversible extinction of all people. Events which influence all world, but do not lead to total extinction, are called in this text as "very big catastrophes».

"Friendly" AI - the universal strong AI, which system of the purposes it is arranged so, that it will not harm people and will reduce risk of global catastrophe. Its contrast - the unfriendly AI, which system of the purposes conducts to  destruction of people and even mankind extinction.

Moore's law - initially concerns doubling of number of transistors on microprocessors each two years. Speaking about Moore's law, we will mean Moore's law in the broad sense of the word, as process exponential growth of some key technologies with the doubling period in some years.

AI - an Artificial intellect understood as the Universal artificial intellect, capable to self-improvement and any intellectual activity accessible to human.

The Doomsday machine, the Doomsday weapon - any device, substance or a way which are developed specially for definitive and irreversible destruction of mankind.

The postapocalyptic world - the earth after very big catastrophe which, however some number of people will survive.

Supertechnologies - essentially new ways of influence on an external world, capable it completely to transform and-or create global risks, first of all it nano, био, coogno and AI-technologies.

Singularity - a hypothetical point in time around year 2030 when a number prognostic curves go to infinity. It is connected with the fast growth of technical progress, especially computers, nano and biotechnologies, researches of a brain and systems of AI and assumes qualitative change of mankind. The term is put into practice by Vernor Vinge in 1993.

Structure of the Catastrophe - interrelation of scientific errors, design defects, operator’s errors and chain reaction of factors of destruction, leaders to catastrophe.

Introduction

People, lions, eagles and partridges, horned deer, geese, spiders, the silent fishes living in water, starfishes and what it was impossible to see an eye, say, the lives, all lives, all lives, having made a sad circle, have died away... Already thousand centuries as the earth does not carry on itself any live a being, and this poor moon in vain lights the lantern. On a meadow cranes do not wake up any more with shout, and may-bugs do not happen is audible in lime groves. Coldly, coldly, coldly. It is empty, empty, empty. Terribly, terribly, terribly.

A.P. Chehov. "Seagull"

Though only a few books with the general review of a problem of global risks is published in the world, the certain tradition in discussions of the subject has already formed. It consists in discussion of methodology, classification of possible risks, estimations of their probability, ways of protection and then - the review of the logic paradoxes connected with this problem, namely, Doomsday argument. The most essential modern source on a problem are following: It is the book of astrophysics of J. Leslie «The End of the world. A science and ethics of human extinction», 1996, Sir Martin Rees «Our last hour», 2003, R.Posner “Catastrophe: risk and response”, 2004, and the volume under edition of Н. Bostrom “Global catastrophic risks», 2008. Once again we will address to the available literature in section «Short history of research of a question» in 1st chapter, where we will mention also works of the Soviet and Russian authors, however, the listed books will be our basic points of a support.

This book considerably differs from the previous books, first of all, by width of review. For example, in article of Yudkowsky is discussed, though and it is very detailed, only 10 possible cognitive biases influencing an estimation of global risks whereas in our book is undertaken attempt to make their full list including 150 points. As well in the section devoted to classification of risks are mentioned some risks about which there is no information in the previous books. If to count all possible risks, including subcategories their number, that exceeds the sum from 15 risks discussed by Bostrom. At last, I offer classification of variants of the Doomsday Argument that is not present in foreign sources known to me. The special feature of the offered book is detailed critical review of various protection measures from global risks.

Thus I aspired to give a system point of view at the problem which would allow to come off simple listing of various risks and to see what general is in each of them, and also how different risks, influencing each other, can form structure. That explains choice of the name of the book.

The given work is addressed to any future and to nowadays existing organizations which will prevent global catastrophes, including the governments, research institutes, special services, military men and non-governmental funds, to their heads and employees, and also futurologists, young scientists and all, who is interested in the future mankind. The purpose of the work is to give a picture of risks of global final catastrophe. It is an event which, according to Bostrom, «will exterminate a intelligent life on the Earth or will irreversiblly damage its potential». Full extinction of all people is the most probable form of such event, and further in the text the words «global catastrophe» will mean this event.