The structure of the global catastrophe

The Russian Academy of Sciences

Institute of Africa

A.V. Turchin

THE STRUCTURE OF THE GLOBAL CATASTROPHE

Risks for civilization in the XXI century
Parenthetical word: Nick Bostrom

The foreword: G.G. Malinetski

The joint project of The Centre Civilizational And Regional Researches in

Institut of Africa of the Russian Academy of Sciences and

The Russian Transhumanist Movement.

Moscow 2008

A SERIES «DIALOGUES ABOUT THE FUTURE»

Т.2

Editor-in-chiefs:

I. V. Sledzevsky

Valery Prajd
Mail to: [e-mail]

Contents

Contents 2

Parenthetical word by Nick Bostrom. 8

G.G. Malinetsky. Reflexions about the inconceivable. 9

Preface 26

Terms 31

Part 1. The analysis of Risks 34

Chapter 1. The general remarks 34

Space of possibilities 34

Problems of calculation of probabilities of various scenarios 36

Principles of classification of global risks 51

Chapter 2. Nuclear weapons 53

2.1 "Nuclear winter”. 54

2.2 Full radioactive contamination 58

2.3 Other dangers of the nuclear weapon 61

2.4 Integration of hurting factors of the nuclear weapons. 64

2.5 Cost of creation of the nuclear potential, able to threaten a survival of a human civilisation 64

2.6 Probability of the global catastrophe caused by the nuclear weapons 65

2.7 Change of probability of the global catastrophe caused by the nuclear weapon by time 68

2.8 Strategy of nuclear deterrence is in doubt 69

2.9 Nuclear terrorism as the factor of global catastrophe 70

2.10. Conclusions on risks of application of the nuclear weapon 70

Chapter 3. Global chemical contamination 71

Conclusions about technologically ready risks 75

The risks, which occurrence it seems inevitable, proceeding from current character of development of technologies 75

Chapter 4. The biological weapons 75

The general reasons and the basic scenarios 75

Structure of biological catastrophe 78

"Self-replicating" synthesizer of DNA 79

Plural biological strike 80

Biological delivery systems 80

Probability of application of the biological weapon and its distribution in time 81

Chapter 5. Superdrug 84

Chapter 6. The risks connected with self-copiing ideas (meme) 86

Chapter 7. Artificial intelligence 88

The general description of a problem 88

AI as universal absolute weapon 91

System of the goals 92

Struggle of AI-projects among themselves 92

«The advanced human» 93

AI and its separate copies 93

AI "revolt" 94

Speed of start 94

Scenarios of "fast start” 94

Slow start and struggle of different AI among themselves 95

Smooth transition. Transformation of total control state into AI 96

"Revolt" of robots 97

The control and destruction possibility 98

AI and the states 99

Probability of AI catastrophe 99

Other risks connected with computers 100

Time of creation of AI 101

Chapter 8. The risks connected with robots and nanotechnologies. 102

The robot-spray 104

The self-reproducing robot. 104

Cloud of microrobots 104

The armies of large fighting robots leaving from under the control 104

The nanotehnological weapons 105

Unlimited spreading of self-breeding nanorobots 106

Probability of occurrence nanorobots and possible time for this event 108

Chapter 9. Technological ways of intended creation of natural catastrophes 109

Deviation of asteroids 109

Creation of an artificial supervolcano 110

Intended destruction of the ozone layer 112

Chapter 10. The technological risks connected with essentially new discovery 112

Unsuccessful physical experiment 112

The new types of weapon, the new energy sources, new environments of distribution and ways of long-range action 116

Chapter 11. The risks created by space technologies 116

Attack on the Earth by means of the space weapons 116

Chapter 12. The risks connected with program SETI 121

Algorithm of SETI attack. 123

Analysis of possible goals. 127

Objections. 130

Chapter 13. The risks connected with washing out of borders between human and inhuman 132

Chapter 14. The risks connected with natural catastrophes 134

Universal catastrophes 134

Geological catastrophes 136

Eruptions of supervolcanoes 136

Chapter 17. The reasons of catastrophes unknown to us now 168

Chapter 18. Ways of detection of one-factorial scenarios of global catastrophe 168

Глава 23. Защита от глобальных рисков 238

Общее понятие о предотвратимости глобальных рисков 239

Активные щиты 241

Действующие и будущие щиты 244

Сохранение мирового баланса сил 246

Возможная система контроля над глобальными рисками 247

Сознательная остановка технологического прогресса 248

Средства превентивного удара 249

G.G.Malinetsky. Reflexions about inconceivable 4

Global instability 5

Psychological discourse 9

Problem of the tool 12

In the plan behind harbingers 17

The foreword 23

Parenthesis Ника Bostromа. 29

Terms 30

Introduction 32

Part 1. The analysis Is brave 34

Chapter 1. The general remarks 34

Chapter 2. The nuclear weapon 56

Chapter 3. Global chemical contamination 76

Chapter 4. The biological weapon 81

Chapter 5. A superdrug 90

Chapter 6. The risks connected with self-copied ideas (мемами) 93

Chapter 7. The Artificial intellect 95

Chapter 8. The risks connected with robots and nanotechnologyями 110

Chapter 9. Technological ways провоцирования natural natural catastrophes 118

Chapter 10. The technological risks connected with essentially new discovery 121

Chapter 11. The risks created by space technologies 126

Chapter 12. The risks connected with program SETI 131

Chapter 13. The risks connected with washing out of borders between human and inhuman 141

Chapter 14. The risks connected with natural catastrophes 142

Chapter 15. Global warming 166

Chapter 16. The anthropogenous risks which have been not connected with new technologies 169

Chapter 17. The reasons of catastrophes unknown to us now 175

Chapter 18. Ways of detection of one-factorial scenarios of global catastrophe 176

Chapter 19. Multifactorial scenarios 186

Chapter 20. The events changing probability of global catastrophe. 210

Chapter 21. Криптовойны, race of arms and others сценарные the factors raising probability of global catastrophe 229

Chapter 22. The factors influencing for speed of progress 246

Chapter 23. Protection against global risks 251

Chapter 24. Indirect ways of an estimation of probability of global catastrophe 282

Chapter 25. The Most probable scenario of global catastrophe 300

Part 2. Methodology of the analysis of global risks. 305

Chapter 1. The general remarks. An error as intellectual catastrophe. 305

Chapter 2. Errors, possible only concerning threats to existence of mankind 309

Chapter 3. As когнитивные the distortions, able to concern any risks, influence an estimation of global risks 325

Chapter 4. The Obshchelogichesky errors, able to be shown in reasonings on global risks 362

Chapter 5. The specific errors arising in discussions about danger of uncontrollable development of an artificial intellect 373

Chapter 6. The specific errors connected by reasonings on risks of use nanotechnologyй 383

Chapter 7. Conclusions from the analysis когнитивных distortions in an estimation of global risks 388

Chapter 8. Possible rules for rather effective estimation of global risks 388

The conclusion. Prospects of prevention of global catastrophes 390

The literature: 391

The appendix 1. The table of catastrophes. 402

The appendix 2. Articles. 440

E.Yudkowsky. The Artificial intellect as the positive and negative factor of global risk. 440

N.Bostrom. Introduction in the Theorem of the Doomsday. 495

A.A.Kononov. The ideological beginnings of the general theory неуничтожимости mankind 500

Notes: 515