The shadow economy

Variable
Influence on the shadow economy (in %)*
	(a)	(b)
Tax and social security contribution burdens	35-38	45-52
Quality of state institutions	10-12	12-17
Labour market regulation	7-9	7-9
Transfer payments	5-7	7-9
Public sector services	5-7	7-9
Tax morale	22-25	-
Influence of all factors	84-98	78-96

Soliqlar va ijtimoiy sug'urta badallarining yuki.
Davlat muassasalarining sifati.
Mehnat bozorini tartibga solish.
Transfer to'lovlari.
Davlat sektori xizmatlari.
soliq axloqi.
Barcha omillarning ta'siri.

Yashirin iqtisodiyotga ta'siri (%)*

(a) Average values of 12 studies

(b) Average values of empirical results of 22 studies
*This is the normalised or standardised influence of the variable average over 12 studies (column a) and 22 studies (column b)

(a) 12 ta tadqiqot vositalari

(b) 22 ta tadqiqotning empirik natijalari.
*Bu 12 ta tadqiqot (a ustuni) va 22 ta tadqiqot (b ustuni) boʻyicha oʻrtacha oʻzgaruvchining normallashtirilgan yoki standartlashtirilgan taʼsiri.


Source: Schneider (2009)
Manba: Schneider (2009)

IV. The size of the shadow economy.

Yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmi.

4.1. Statistical estimation of the determinants of the shadow economy.

Yashirin iqtisodiyotni belgilovchi omillarni statistik baholash.

Following the discussion above, we can develop five hypotheses below which will be empirically tested subsequently using the MIMIC approach. The hypotheses are that, all other things being equal:

• An increase in direct and indirect taxation increases the shadow economy.
• An increase in social security contributions increases the shadow economy.
• The higher the level of regulation, the greater the incentives are to work in the shadow economy.
• The lower the quality of state institutions, the greater the incentives are to work in the shadow economy.
• The lower tax morale, the greater the incentives are to work in the shadow economy.
Yuqoridagi muhokamadan so'ng biz quyidagi beshta gipotezani ishlab chiqishimiz mumkin, ular keyinchalik MIMIC yondashuvi yordamida empirik tarzda tekshiriladi. Gipotezalar shundayki, boshqa narsalar teng:
• To'g'ridan-to'g'ri va bilvosita soliqqa tortishning kuchayishi yashirin iqtisodiyotni oshiradi.
• Ijtimoiy sug'urta badallarining ko'payishi yashirin iqtisodiyotni oshiradi.
• Tartibga solish darajasi qanchalik yuqori bo‘lsa, yashirin iqtisodiyotda ishlashga shunchalik rag‘bat bo‘ladi.
• Davlat institutlarining sifati qanchalik past bo‘lsa, yashirin iqtisodiyotda ishlashga shunchalik rag‘batlantiriladi.
• Soliq ma'naviyati qanchalik past bo'lsa, yashirin iqtisodiyotda ishlashga shunchalik ko'p rag'batlantiriladi.
In addition to these hypotheses, it is also reasonable to assume that:

• 
  The higher is unemployment, the more people engage in shadow economy activities.
  
• 
  The lower GDP per capita is in a country, the higher is the incentive to work in the shadow economy.
  

Ushbu gipotezalarga qo'shimcha ravishda, quyidagilarni taxmin qilish o'rinli:
 Ishsizlik qancha ko'p bo'lsa, shunchalik ko'p odamlar yashirin iqtisodiyotga jalb qilinadi.
 Mamlakatda aholi jon boshiga yalpi ichki mahsulot qancha past bo‘lsa, yashirin iqtisodiyotda ishlashga rag‘bat shunchalik yuqori bo‘ladi.

These additional variables have been added to the statistical analysis.

Ushbu qo'shimcha o'zgaruvchilar statistik tahlilga qo'shildi.

In the analysis, we examined a sample of 21 highly developed OECD countries between 1990 and 2007 (with pooled cross-section and time series data). Because the effect of deterrence cannot be empirically tested it is not considered here. The following results correspond to the factors reported in Table 3, which were obtained from an overview of existing studies.

Tahlilimizda biz 1990-2007 yillar oralig‘ida OECDga a’zo bo‘lgan 21 ta yuqori rivojlangan mamlakatlar namunasini ko‘rib chiqdik (birlashtirilgan kesma ma’lumotlar va vaqt seriyalari bilan). To'xtatuvchi ta'sir empirik tarzda tekshirilishi mumkin emasligi sababli, bu erda ko'rib chiqilmaydi. Quyidagi natijalar mavjud tadqiqotlarni ko'rib chiqish natijasida olingan 3-jadvalda ko'rsatilgan omillarga mos keladi.

The results in Table 4 use the MIMIC approach to examine the relationship between the shadow economy and various economic variables. Besides the usual cause variables identified in Chapter 3, other variables were added, namely the employment rate, the annual growth rate of GDP and the change of currency per capita. The average working time per week is used as an additional indicator variable¹⁸. The estimated coefficients of all eight causal variables are statistically significant and have the theoretically expected signs. The tax and social security burden variables are quantitatively the most important ones, followed by the tax morale variable, which has the single biggest influence. Also, quality of state institutions is statistically significant. The development of the official economy measured by unemployment and GDP per capita also has a quantitatively important influence on the shadow economy. Turning to the indicator variables, they all have a statistically significant influence and the estimated coefficients have the expected signs. The quantitatively most important independent variables are the employment rate and the change in the use of currency per capita. ¹⁹.

4-jadvaldagi natijalar yashirin iqtisodiyot va turli iqtisodiy o'zgaruvchilar o'rtasidagi munosabatni o'rganish uchun MIMIC yondashuvidan foydalanadi. 3-bobda aniqlangan odatiy sababiy o'zgaruvchilarga qo'shimcha ravishda, boshqa o'zgaruvchilar ham qo'shildi, ya'ni bandlik darajasi, YaIM yillik o'sish sur'ati va aholi jon boshiga valyuta o'zgarishi. Qo'shimcha ko'rsatkich o'zgaruvchisi sifatida haftada o'rtacha ish vaqti ishlatiladi. Barcha sakkiz sababchi o'zgaruvchilarning hisoblangan koeffitsientlari statistik ahamiyatga ega va nazariy jihatdan kutilgan belgilarga ega. Soliq yuki va farovonlik o'zgaruvchilari miqdoriy jihatdan eng muhimi, keyin esa eng ko'p ta'sir ko'rsatadigan soliq ma'naviy o'zgaruvchisi. Davlat institutlarining sifati ham statistik ahamiyatga ega. Ishsizlik va aholi jon boshiga yalpi ichki mahsulot hajmi bilan o‘lchanadigan rasmiy iqtisodiyotning rivojlanishi yashirin iqtisodiyotga ham sezilarli miqdor ta’sirini ko‘rsatadi. Ko'rsatkich o'zgaruvchilarga kelsak, ularning barchasi statistik ahamiyatga ega ta'sirga ega va taxmin qilingan koeffitsientlar kutilgan belgilarga ega. Miqdoriy jihatdan eng muhim izohlovchi o'zgaruvchilar bandlik darajasi va valyutadan foydalanishning aholi jon boshiga o'zgarishi hisoblanadi.

Summarising, these econometric results suggest that in the OECD countries examined, the social security contributions and the share of direct taxation have the biggest influence on the size of the shadow economy, followed by tax morale and the quality of state institutions.²⁰ This new examination of the statistical evidence accords strongly with the evidence from previous studies.

Xulosa qilib aytganda, ushbu ekonometrik natijalar so'rovda qatnashgan OECD mamlakatlarida ijtimoiy sug'urta badallari va to'g'ridan-to'g'ri soliqqa tortish ulushi yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmiga eng ko'p ta'sir ko'rsatayotganini ko'rsatadi, ikkinchi o'rinda soliq axloqi va davlat institutlari sifatiga ta'sir qiladi. Statistikaning ushbu yangi usuli avvalgi tadqiqotlar bilan mustahkam mos keladi.