The shadow economy

Table 4. MIMIC estimation of the shadow economy of 21 highly developed OECD countries, 1990/91, 1994/95, 1997/98, 1999/2000, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05 and 2006/07.
1990/91, 1994/95, 1997/98, 1999/2000, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/06, 2004/06 va 21 ta rivojlangan OECD mamlakatlarida yashirin iqtisodiyotning MIMIC bahosi.

Cause variables	Estimated coefficients
Share of direct taxation	0.392**
(in % of GDP)	(3.34)
Share of indirect taxation	0.184(*)
(in % of GDP)	(1.74)
Share of social security contribution	0.523**
(in % of GDP)	(3.90)
Burden of state regulation (index of labour market regulation, Heritage Foundation, score 1 least regular, score 5 most regular)	0.226(*) (2.03)
Quality of state institutions (rule of law, World Bank, score -3 worst and +3 best case)	-0.314* (-2.70)
Tax morale (WVS and EVS, Index, Scale tax cheating always justified = 1, never justified = 10)	-0.593** (-3.76)
Unemployment rate (%)	0.316** (2.40)
GDP per capita (in USS)	-0.106** (-3.04)
Indicator variables	Estimated coefficients
Employment rate	-0.613**
(in % of population 18-64)	(-2.52)
Average working time (per week)	-1.00 (residual)
Annual growth rate of GDP (adjusted for the mean of all 22 OECD countries)	-0.281** (-3.16)
Change in circulation of local currency per capita	0.320** (3.80)

Cause variables	Sabab o'zgaruvchilari
Estimated coefficients	Hisoblangan koeffitsientlar
Share of direct taxation	To'g'ridan-to'g'ri soliqqa tortish ulushi
(in % of GDP)	(YaIM ga nisbatan)
Share of indirect taxation	Bilvosita soliqqa tortish ulushi
(in % of GDP)	(YaIM ga nisbatan)
Share of social security contribution	Ijtimoiy sug'urta badallarining ulushi
(in % of GDP)	(YaIM ga nisbatan)
Burden of state regulation (index of labour market regulation, Heritage Foundation, score 1 least regular, score 5 most regular)	Davlat tomonidan tartibga solish yuki (mehnat bozorini tartibga solish indeksi, Heritage Foundation, 1 ta eng kam, 5 ta eng muntazam)
Quality of state institutions (rule of law, World Bank, score -3 worst and +3 best case)	Davlat muassasalarining sifati (qonun ustuvorligi, Jahon banki, ball -3 eng yomon holat, +3 eng yaxshi holat)
Tax morale (WVS and EVS, Index, Scale tax cheating always justified = 1, never justified = 10)	Soliq axloqi (WVS va EVS, Indeks, Katta miqyosdagi soliq firibgarligi har doim oqlanadi = 1, hech qachon oqlanmaydi = 10)
Unemployment rate (%)	Ishsizlik darajasi (%)
GDP per capita (in USS)	Aholi jon boshiga YaIM (AQSH dollari)
Indicator variables	Ko'rsatkich o'zgaruvchilari
Employment rate	Bandlik darajasi
(in % of population 18-64)	(18-64 aholining foizida)
Average working time (per week)	O'rtacha ish vaqti (haftasiga)
Annual growth rate of GDP (adjusted for the mean of all 22 OECD countries)	Yillik YaIM o'sish sur'ati (OECDga a'zo barcha 22 mamlakat o'rtacha hisobiga tuzatilgan)
Change in circulation of local currency per capita	Aholi jon boshiga mahalliy valyuta muomalasining o'zgarishi

Notes: Further details and test statistics are available from the author. t-statistics are in parentheses; (*), *, ** indicate significance at the 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels respectively.
Eslatma: Batafsil ma'lumot va test statistikasini muallifdan olish mumkin. t-statistik ma'lumotlar qavs ichida berilgan; (*), *, ** mos ravishda 90%, 95% va 99% ishonch darajalarida ahamiyatlilikni bildiradi.

4.2. The development and size of the shadow economy in Germany.

Germaniyada yashirin iqtisodiyotning rivojlanishi va hajmi.

A significant amount of work has been done on the shadow economy in Germany, and this makes an interesting case study before we look at other countries. Various estimates of the German shadow economy (measured as a percentage of official GDP) are shown in Table 5 (see also Feld et al., 2007). The oldest estimate uses the survey method of the Institute for Demos-copy (IFD) in Allensbach, Germany, and shows that the shadow economy was 3.6 per cent of official GDP in 1974. In a much later study, Feld and Larsen (2005, 2008) undertook an extensive research project using the survey method to estimate shadow economic activities in the years 2001 to 2006²¹. Using the officially paid wage rate, they concluded that shadow economic activities reached 4.1 per cent in 2001, 3.1 per cent in 2004, 3.6 per cent in 2005 and 2.5 per cent in 2006²². Using the (much lower) shadow economy wage rate these estimates shrink, however, to 1.3 per cent in 2001 and 1.0 per cent in 2004, respectively.

Germaniyada yashirin iqtisodiyot bo'yicha katta hajmdagi ishlar amalga oshirildi va bu boshqa mamlakatlarga qarashdan oldin qiziqarli misoldir. Germaniyaning yashirin iqtisodiyotiga oid turli baholar (rasmiy YaIMga nisbatan) 5-jadvalda keltirilgan (shuningdek, Feld va boshq., 2007 yilga qarang). Eng qadimgi hisob-kitob Germaniyaning Allensbax shahridagi Demografiya Institutining (IFD) so'rov usulidan foydalanadi va 1974 yilda yashirin iqtisodiyot rasmiy YaIMning 3,6% ni tashkil qilganligini ko'rsatadi. Yaqinda o'tkazilgan tadqiqotda Feld va Larsen (2005, 2008) 2001 va 2006 yillar oralig'ida yashirin iqtisodiy faoliyatni baholash uchun so'rov usulidan foydalangan holda katta tadqiqot loyihasini amalga oshirdi. Rasmiy ish haqi stavkasidan foydalanib, ular yashirin iqtisodiy faoliyat 2001 yilda 4,1%, 2004 yilda 3,1%, 2005 yilda 3,6% va 2006 yilda 2,5% ga yetgan degan xulosaga kelishdi. Biroq, er osti (ancha pastroq) ish haqi stavkasini qo'llagan holda, bu hisob-kitoblar 2001 yilda 2,5% ga tushadi. 2001 yilda mos ravishda 1,3% va 2004 yilda 1,0%.

We know, however, that the survey method considerably underestimates the size of the shadow economy. Another approach to estimating the size of the shadow economy in the 1970s and 1980s is the ‘discrepancy’ approach. This relies on the fact that there are different ways of calculating national income and other aggregate variables (in the case of national income there are the income and expenditure approaches, for example) and that discrepancies between them will, to some extent, reflect shadow economic activity.

Biroq, biz bilamizki, so'rov usuli yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmini sezilarli darajada kam baholaydi. 1970-1980-yillarda yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmini baholashning yana bir yondashuvi “divergentsiya” usulidir. Bu milliy daromad va boshqa yalpi o'zgaruvchilarni hisoblashning turli usullari mavjudligiga asoslanadi (milliy daromadda, masalan, daromad va xarajatlar yondashuvlari mavjud) va ular o'rtasidagi tafovutlar ma'lum darajada yashirin iqtisodiy ko'rsatkichlarni aks ettiradi. ishlash. Voqealar.

The discrepancy approach using national income estimates, and using the discrepancy between official and actual employment estimates of roughly 30 per cent, leads to estimates of the shadow economy of 11 per cent for the 1970s. The physical input methods from which estimates for the 1980s are available suggest values of around 15 per cent for the second half of that decade.

Milliy daromad hisob-kitoblaridan foydalangan holda nomuvofiqlik usuli va rasmiy va amaldagi bandlik hisob-kitoblari o'rtasidagi 30% ga yaqin tafovut 1970-yillar uchun 11% yashirin iqtisodiyotga olib keladi. 1980-yillar uchun hisob-kitoblarni ishlab chiqaradigan jismoniy kiritish usullari ushbu o'n yillikning ikkinchi yarmi uchun taxminan 15 foiz qiymatlarni taklif qiladi.

Other methods of estimating the shadow economy also produce much bigger numbers than the survey method. The monetary transaction approach developed by Feige (1989) calculates the shadow economy to have been 30 per cent between 1980 and 1985. The currency demand approach – first used by Kirchgassner (1983, 1984) – provides values of 3.1 per cent in 1970 and 10.1 per cent for 1980. Kirchgassner’s values are quite similar to the ones obtained by Schneider and Enste (2000a, 2002), who also used a currency demand approach to estimate the size of the shadow economy at 4.5 per cent in 1970 and 14.7 per cent in 2000. Estimates using the MIMIC procedures – applied by Frey and Weck-Hannemann (1984) – are quite similar to those from the current demand approach, as are Schneider’s estimates also using a MIMIC approach (Schneider 2005, 2009). As noted, the MIMIC estimates have an error margin of +/-15.0 per cent of their estimated value.

Yashirin iqtisodiyotni baholashning boshqa usullari ham so'rov usuliga qaraganda ancha katta raqamlarni beradi. Feyge (1989)ning pul muomalalariga yondashuvi 1980-1985 yillar oralig‘ida yashirin iqtisodiyot 30 foizni tashkil etganligini taxmin qilgan. Kirchgasner (1983, 1984) tomonidan yaratilgan valyutaga talab yondashuvi 1970 yilda 3,1 foiz va 10,1 foiz qiymatlarni beradi. 1980 yil uchun. Kirchgasnerning qiymatlari Schneider va Enste (2000a, 2002) tomonidan olingan qiymatlarga juda o'xshash, ular ham yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmini 1970 yilda 4,5 foiz va 1970 yilda 14,7 foizga baholash uchun valyuta talabi usulidan foydalanganlar. 2000. Frey va Weck-Hannemann (1984) tomonidan qo'llaniladigan MIMIC protseduralari bo'yicha hisob-kitoblar, Shnayderning MIMIC yondashuvidan (Schneider 2005, 2009) foydalanadigan taxminlari kabi joriy talabni baholashga juda o'xshash. Ta'kidlanganidek, MIMIC ballari o'z ballining +/- 15,0% xatolik chegarasiga ega.
Table 5. The size of the shadow economy in Germany (% of official GDP).
Germaniyada yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmi (rasmiy YaIMga nisbatan %).

Method	Shadow economy in Germany (in percentage of official GDP) in:									Source