The shadow economy

Philip Booth
Editorial and Programme Director,
Institute of Economic Affairs,
Professor of Insurance and Risk Management,
Cass Business School, City University, London
March 2013

Summary

Xulosa

• 
  Measurement of the shadow economy is notoriously difficult as it requires estimation of economic activity that is deliberately hidden from official transactions. Surveys typically understate the size of the shadow economy but econometric techniques can now be used to obtain a much better understanding of its size.
  

Yashirin iqtisodiyotni o'lchash juda qiyin, chunki u rasmiy operatsiyalardan ataylab yashirilgan iqtisodiy faoliyatni baholashni talab qiladi. Tadqiqotlar odatda yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmini kam baholaydi, ammo endi uning hajmini yaxshiroq tushunish uchun ekonometrik usullardan foydalanish mumkin.

• 
  The shadow economy constitutes approximately 10 per cent of GDP in the UK; about 14 per cent in Nordic countries and about 20-30 per cent in many southern European countries. The main drivers of the shadow economy are (in order): tax and social security burdens, tax morale, the quality of state institutions and labour market regulation. A reduction in the tax burden is therefore likely to lead to a reduction in the size of the shadow economy. Indeed, a virtuous circle can be created of lower tax rates, less shadow work, higher tax morale, a higher tax take and the opportunity for lower rates. Of course, a vicious circle in the other direction can also be created.
  

• Yashirin iqtisodiyot Buyuk Britaniya YaIMning taxminan 10% ni tashkil qiladi; Shimoliy Evropa mamlakatlarida taxminan 14% va ko'plab Janubiy Evropa mamlakatlarida taxminan 20-30%. Yashirin iqtisodiyotning asosiy omillari (tartibda): soliq yuki va ijtimoiy ta'minot yuki, soliq axloqi, davlat institutlarining sifati va mehnat bozorini tartibga solish. Shunday qilib, soliq yukini kamaytirish yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmining qisqarishiga olib kelishi mumkin. Haqiqatan ham, pastroq soliq stavkalari, kamroq soyali ish, yuqori soliq ma'naviyati, yuqori soliq tushumlari va stavkalarni pasaytirish imkoniyatining yaxshi doirasini yaratish mumkin. Albatta, boshqa yo'nalishda ayovsiz doira yaratish mumkin.

• 
  Given this relationship, the high level of non-wage costs (averaging 39 per cent of total labour costs) and the penalty on individuals who move from earning one third to two thirds of the median wage (averaging 58 per cent of the increase in earnings for a one-earner couple) in the European Union should be a matter of real concern. The latter figure is 79 per cent in the UK and thus low-paid UK workers have a huge incentive to supplement their incomes in the shadow economy.
  

• Ushbu munosabatlarni hisobga olgan holda, ish haqi bo'lmagan xarajatlarning yuqori darajasi (jami mehnat xarajatlarining o'rtacha 39 foizi) va o'rtacha ish haqining uchdan bir qismidan uchdan ikki qismiga o'tgan shaxslar uchun jarimalar (bir er-xotin uchun daromadning o'rtacha 58 foizga oshishi) -breadwinner) Evropa Ittifoqida asosiy tashvish bo'lishi kerak. Oxirgi ko'rsatkich Buyuk Britaniyada 79 foizni tashkil qiladi va shuning uchun past maosh oladigan britaniyalik ishchilar o'z daromadlarini yashirin iqtisodiyotda to'ldirish uchun katta rag'batga ega.

• 
  The number of participants in the shadow economy is very large. Although up-to-date figures are not available, at the end of the twentieth century up to 30 million people performed shadow work in the EU and up to 48 million in the OECD. Reliable detailed studies are not available for many countries. In Denmark, however, the latest studies suggest that about half the population purchases shadow work. In some sectors – such as construction – about half the workforce is working in the shadow economy, often in addition to formal employment. Only a very small proportion of shadow economy workers can be accounted for by illegal immigrants in most countries.
  

• Yashirin iqtisodiyot ishtirokchilari soni juda ko'p. Haqiqiy ma'lumotlar mavjud bo'lmasa-da, 20-asrning oxirida Evropa Ittifoqida 30 milliongacha va OECD mamlakatlarida 48 milliongacha odam yer osti ishlari bilan shug'ullangan. Ko'pgina mamlakatlarda ishonchli batafsil tadqiqotlar mavjud emas. Daniyada esa so‘nggi tadqiqotlar shuni ko‘rsatadiki, aholining qariyb yarmi yer osti ishlarini sotib oladi. Ba'zi tarmoqlarda, masalan, qurilishda, ishchi kuchining yarmiga yaqini yashirin iqtisodiyotda ishlaydi, ko'pincha rasmiy bandlikdan tashqari. Aksariyat mamlakatlarda yashirin iqtisodiyotdagi ishchilarning juda kichik qismigina noqonuniy immigrantlar qatoriga kiritilishi mumkin.

• 
  In western Europe, shadow work is relatively prevalent among the unemployed and the formally employed. Other non-employed (for example, the retired, homemakers and students) do relatively less shadow work. This has implications for policy in terms of the importance of social security systems that reduce the opportunities for shadow work among the unemployed and the importance of tax systems that do not discourage the declaring of extra income.
  

• G'arbiy Evropada ishsizlar va rasmiy ravishda band bo'lganlar orasida soyali mehnat nisbatan keng tarqalgan. Boshqa ishlamaydiganlar (masalan, pensionerlar, uy bekalari va talabalar) er osti ishlarini nisbatan kamroq bajaradilar. Bu ishsizlar orasida yashirin ish imkoniyatlarini kamaytiradigan ijtimoiy ta'minot tizimlarining ahamiyati va qo'shimcha daromadlar deklaratsiyasiga to'sqinlik qilmaydigan soliq tizimlarining ahamiyati nuqtai nazaridan siyosat ta'siriga ega.

• 
  Policies focused on deterrence are not likely to be especially successful when tackling the shadow economy. The shadow economy is pervasive and made up of a huge number of small and highly dispersed transactions. We should also be wary about trying to stamp out the shadow economy as we may stamp out the entrepreneurship and business formation that goes with it.
  

• Yashirin iqtisodiyotga qarshi kurashda cheklanishga qaratilgan siyosat ayniqsa muvaffaqiyatli bo'lishi dargumon. Yashirin iqtisodiyot keng tarqalgan bo'lib, juda ko'p sonli kichik va juda tarqoq operatsiyalardan iborat. Yashirin iqtisodiyotga barham berishga harakat qilishdan ham ehtiyot bo‘lishimiz kerak, chunki u bilan birga keladigan tadbirkorlik va biznes shakllanishiga barham berishimiz mumkin.

• 
  There are, however, huge potential benefits from allowing the self-employed and small businesses to formalise their arrangements. Businesses cannot flourish if they remain in the shadow economy. They might be reluctant to formalise, however, if it involves admitting to past indiscretions. Worthwhile policies include: reducing business compliance regulation; amnesties; providing limited tax shelters for small-scale informal activity such as the provision of interest-bearing loans to relatives and friends; and allowing businesses to formalise using simple ‘off the shelf models. Such policies have been successful in other countries – and to a limited extent in the UK – with high benefit-to-cost ratios.
  

• Biroq, o'z-o'zini ish bilan ta'minlovchi va kichik biznes sub'ektlariga o'z tartiblarini rasmiylashtirishga ruxsat berish katta salohiyatga ega. Agar ular yashirin iqtisodiyotda qolsa, biznes rivojlana olmaydi. Biroq, agar ular o'tmishdagi noaniqliklarni tan olishni o'z ichiga olsa, rasmiylashtirishni istamasligi mumkin. Tegishli siyosatlarga quyidagilar kiradi: biznesni tartibga solishni qisqartirish; amnistiya; qarindoshlar va do'stlarga foizli kreditlar berish kabi kichik norasmiy faoliyat uchun cheklangan soliq jannatlarini taqdim etish; va korxonalarga oddiy tayyor modellar yordamida rasmiylashtirish imkonini beradi. Bunday siyosat boshqa mamlakatlarda muvaffaqiyatli bo'ldi - va cheklangan darajada Buyuk Britaniyada - yuqori foyda-xarajat nisbati bilan.

• 
  Given that the shadow economy constitutes a high proportion of national income, and varies between less than 8 per cent of national income and over 30 per cent of national income in OECD countries, official national income statistics can often be misleading. Comparisons are made even more difficult because some countries adjust figures for the shadow economy (for example, Italy) and others do not.
  

• OECD mamlakatlarida yashirin iqtisodiyot milliy daromadning 8 foizdan kamrog‘i milliy daromadning 30 foizdan ortig‘igacha bo‘lgan milliy daromadning salmoqli qismini tashkil etishini hisobga olsak, rasmiy milliy daromad statistikasi ko‘pincha noto‘g‘ri bo‘lishi mumkin. Taqqoslash yanada qiyinroq, chunki ba'zi mamlakatlar yashirin iqtisodiyot uchun ma'lumotlarni moslashtiradi (masalan, Italiya), boshqalari esa yo'q.

• 
  In less developed countries, the informal sector constitutes typically between 25 and 40 per cent of national income and represents up to 70 per cent of non-agricultural employment. In such countries, informal activity often arises because of the inadequacies of legal systems when it comes to formalising business registration.
  

• Kam rivojlangan mamlakatlarda norasmiy sektor odatda milliy daromadning 25-40 foizini va qishloq xo'jaligidan tashqari bandlikning 70 foizini tashkil qiladi. Bunday mamlakatlarda norasmiy faoliyat ko'pincha biznesni ro'yxatga olishni rasmiylashtirishda huquqiy tizimlarning etarli emasligidan kelib chiqadi.

I. INTRODUCTION

Reducing tax evasion, the shadow economy and informal employment has been an important policy goal in OECD countries during recent decades. The shadow economy is notoriously difficult to measure, however. Given the difficulties in measuring the shadow economy, statistical work on its causes and how to deal with it is especially problematic. Nevertheless, data is avail-able that can help us explore these issues. But, why is it important to try to know more about the shadow economy?

Soliq to'lashdan bo'yin tovlash, yashirin iqtisodiyot va norasmiy bandlikni kamaytirish OECD mamlakatlarida so'nggi o'n yilliklarda muhim siyosat maqsadi bo'lib kelgan. Biroq, yashirin iqtisodiyotni o'lchash qiyinligi hammaga ma'lum. Yashirin iqtisodiyotni o‘lchashdagi qiyinchiliklarni hisobga olib, uning sabablari va unga qarshi kurashish usullari bo‘yicha statistik ishlar ayniqsa muammoli. Biroq, bu savollarni o'rganishga yordam beradigan dalillar mavjud. Lekin nima uchun yashirin iqtisodiyot haqida ko'proq bilishga harakat qilish muhim?

Shadow economic activity is problematic for several reasons. One of the purposes of government is to provide the legal frame-work within which economic activity takes place; and societies with good institutions prosper. But when it comes to shadow work those legal institutions are bypassed: contracts can often be unenforceable; economic relationships can become marred by violence; and it can become very difficult for businesses to expand because they then come to the attention of the authorities. A large shadow economy also means that tax rates are higher for those working in the formal economy. Furthermore, as is shown in this monograph, there is a relationship between the size of the tax burden and the size of the shadow economy.

Soya iqtisodiy faoliyat bir necha sabablarga ko'ra muammoli. Hukumatning maqsadlaridan biri - iqtisodiy faoliyatni amalga oshiradigan qonunchilik bazasini ta'minlash; va yaxshi institutlarga ega jamiyatlar gullab-yashnaydi. Biroq, bu huquqiy institutlarning soyasi haqida gap ketganda, bu huquqiy institutlarni chetlab o'tadi: shartnomalar ko'pincha bajarilmaydi; iqtisodiy munosabatlar zo'ravonlik bilan buzilishi mumkin; va biznesning kengayishi juda qiyin bo'lishi mumkin, chunki ular keyinchalik hokimiyat e'tiboriga tushadi. Katta yashirin iqtisodiyot, shuningdek, rasmiy iqtisodiyotda ishlaydiganlar uchun soliq stavkalari yuqori ekanligini anglatadi. Bundan tashqari, ushbu monografiyada ko'rsatilganidek, soliq yukining hajmi va yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmi o'rtasida bog'liqlik mavjud.
As such, understanding the shadow economy has important policy implications. Firstly, there is a need to create an environment in which economic activity can easily be formalised – where there are as few regulatory impediments to formalisation as possible. Secondly, at a broader level, the shadow economy provides a further argument for the need to educate people about the purpose of taxation so as to improve tax morality and hence compliance. Thirdly, there is a need to ensure that the tax system itself is not of a scale and design such that it encourages shadow economic activity.
Shunday qilib, yashirin iqtisodiyotni tushunish muhim siyosat ta'siriga ega. Birinchidan, iqtisodiy faoliyatni oson rasmiylashtirish mumkin bo'lgan, rasmiylashtirish uchun imkon qadar kamroq tartibga soluvchi to'siqlar mavjud bo'lgan muhitni yaratish kerak. Ikkinchidan, kengroq miqyosda, yashirin iqtisodiyot soliq ma'naviyatini va shuning uchun rioya qilishni oshirish uchun odamlarni soliqqa tortish maqsadlari to'g'risida o'qitish zarurligiga yana bir dalil bo'lib xizmat qiladi. Uchinchidan, soliq tizimining o'zida yashirin iqtisodiy faoliyatni rag'batlantiradigan bunday ko'lam va tuzilmaga ega bo'lmasligini ta'minlash kerak.
When it comes to measuring the shadow economy there are a number of challenges. Several methods are used in practice and they tend to give different results. Survey measures, for example, tend to understate the size of the shadow economy because, even in the most carefully controlled of circumstances, people do not like to admit to shadow work – and sometimes they persuade themselves that they are not really undertaking shadow work. Newer statistical techniques have been developed that provide more credible evidence about the size of the shadow economy, and the measures derived from these techniques can then be calibrated using variables, such as the amount of cash in an economy, which are known to be related to the extent of shadow economic activity.
Yashirin iqtisodiyotni o‘lchashga kelganda bir qator muammolar yuzaga keladi. Amalda bir nechta usullar qo'llaniladi va ular turli xil natijalar beradi. Misol uchun, so'rovlar er osti iqtisodiyotining hajmini kam baholaydi, chunki hatto eng ehtiyotkorlik bilan nazorat qilinadigan sharoitlarda ham odamlar er osti ishlarini tan olishni yoqtirmaydilar va ba'zida ular o'zlarini yer osti ishlari bilan shug'ullanmayotganiga ishontiradilar. Yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmi to'g'risida ishonchliroq ma'lumotlarni taqdim etadigan yangi statistik usullar ishlab chiqildi va bu usullar yordamida olingan raqamlar keyinchalik iqtisodiyotdagi naqd pul miqdori kabi o'zgaruvchilar yordamida kalibrlanishi mumkin, ular ma'lum yer osti hajmi.xo'jalik faoliyati.
The results may surprise those not familiar with the literature. A shadow economy of around 9-12 per cent of total economic activity is not untypical for Anglo-Saxon countries, and levels of 20-30 per cent are common in southern Europe. The size of the shadow economy has not varied dramatically over the last decade or so; if anything it has decreased slightly, at least until the outbreak of the euro crisis. The number of participants in the shadow economy is also very large: perhaps 30 million people in the EU alone.
Natijalar adabiyot bilan tanish bo'lmaganlarni hayratda qoldirishi mumkin. Umumiy iqtisodiy faoliyatning taxminan 9-12 foizini tashkil etadigan yashirin iqtisodiyot Anglo-Sakson mamlakatlarida odatiy hol emas va Janubiy Evropada 20-30 foiz darajalari odatiy holdir. Yashirin iqtisodiyotning hajmi oxirgi o'n yil ichida deyarli o'zgarmadi; har qanday holatda ham, u hech bo'lmaganda evro inqirozi boshlanishiga qadar biroz kamaydi. Yashirin iqtisodiyot ishtirokchilari soni ham juda ko'p: faqat Evropa Ittifoqida, ehtimol, 30 million kishi.

Because of the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and the level of taxation, there is a danger of a vicious circle being created in certain circumstances. If the tax burden rises, we might get more shadow work, lower tax receipts, and then yet higher tax rates as the government tries to raise more revenue from a smaller tax base. This may cause yet further increases in the shadow economy, and so on. Of course, this vicious circle can be reversed and turned virtuous if the right policies are pursued. A further factor influencing the size of the shadow economy is ‘tax morale’. If people think that the tax system is becoming less fair and that their neighbours are dodging tax, they are more likely to work in the shadow economy too. This can also contribute to the vicious and virtuous circle effects.

Yashirin iqtisodiyotning hajmi va soliqqa tortish darajasi o'rtasidagi bog'liqlik tufayli ma'lum bir sharoitda ayovsiz doirani yaratish xavfi mavjud. Agar soliq yuki ko'tarilsa, biz ko'proq er osti ishlarini olishimiz, soliq tushumlarini kamaytirishimiz mumkin, keyin esa hukumat kichikroq soliq bazasidan ko'proq daromad olishga harakat qilgan holda soliq stavkalarini yanada oshirishimiz mumkin. Bu yashirin iqtisodiyotning yanada o'sishiga olib kelishi mumkin va hokazo. Albatta, to‘g‘ri siyosat yuritilsa, bu ayovsiz doirani orqaga qaytarish va ezgu davrga aylantirish mumkin. Yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmiga ta’sir etuvchi omillardan yana biri “soliq ma’naviyati”dir. Agar odamlar soliq tizimi adolatsizlashayotganini va qo'shnilarini soliq to'lashdan bo'yin tovlayotgan deb hisoblasa, ular ham yashirin iqtisodiyotda ishlashlari mumkin. Shuningdek, u shafqatsiz va fazilatli doira effektlariga hissa qo'shishi mumkin.

As such, successful policies to tackle the shadow economy are of some significance. When it comes to trying to reduce its size, it is interesting to note that policies focused on deterrence do not tend to be especially successful. The shadow economy is pervasive and made up of a huge number of small and highly dispersed transactions. Furthermore, if we rely on deterrence to reduce the shadow economy we may stamp out the entrepreneurship and business formation that go with it. As we show later in this mono – graph, there are huge potential benefits from taking a different approach and making it easier to enable the self-employed and small businesses to formalise their arrangements. This can include the use of amnesties that forgive previous indiscretions. Such policies have been successful in various countries with high benefit-to-cost ratios.

Shunday qilib, yashirin iqtisodiyotga qarshi kurash bo'yicha muvaffaqiyatli siyosat muayyan ahamiyatga ega. Uning hajmini kamaytirishga urinish haqida gap ketganda, to'xtatib turishga qaratilgan siyosat unchalik muvaffaqiyatli bo'lmasligini ta'kidlash qiziq. Yashirin iqtisodiyot keng tarqalgan bo'lib, juda ko'p sonli kichik va juda tarqoq operatsiyalardan iborat. Bundan tashqari, agar biz yashirin iqtisodiyotni kamaytirish uchun cheklovga tayansak, tadbirkorlik va u bilan birga keladigan biznes shakllanishini yo'q qilishimiz mumkin. Ushbu monografiyada keyinroq ko'rsatib o'tadigan bo'lsak, boshqa yondashuvni qo'llash va o'z-o'zini ish bilan ta'minlovchilar va kichik biznes sub'ektlari o'z kelishuvlarini rasmiylashtirishni osonlashtirishning katta potentsial foydalari bor. Bunga avvalgi beparvoliklarni kechiradigan amnistiyalardan foydalanish kiradi. Bunday siyosatlar foyda-xarajat nisbati yuqori bo'lgan turli mamlakatlarda muvaffaqiyatli bo'ldi.

There is also a very large shadow economy in many less developed countries. Here we use the less ‘loaded’ term ‘informal economy’ to describe this activity because its characteristics are different from the shadow economy in the West. The informal sector in poorer countries is typically between 25 and 40 per cent of national income and can represent up to 70 per cent of non- agricultural employment. In such countries, informal activity often arises because of the inadequacies of legal systems when it comes to formalising business registration rather than as a result of deliberate evasion activity. Nevertheless, the problems that informality can bring are enormous: it can be a serious constraint on business growth; and the lack of enforceability of business and employment contracts in a country makes prosperity much harder to achieve. Rather than proposing solutions to these specific problems in this monograph, we point the reader to the literature in development economics, such as that by De Soto (2000).

Ko'pgina kam rivojlangan mamlakatlarda ham juda katta yashirin iqtisodiyot mavjud. Bu erda biz ushbu faoliyatni tavsiflash uchun kamroq "yuk" atamasi "norasmiy iqtisodiyot" dan foydalanamiz, chunki uning xususiyatlari G'arbdagi yashirin iqtisodiyotdan farq qiladi. Kambag'al mamlakatlardagi norasmiy sektor odatda milliy daromadning 25-40 foizini tashkil qiladi va qishloq xo'jaligidan tashqari bandlikning 70 foizini tashkil qilishi mumkin. Bunday mamlakatlarda norasmiy faoliyat ko‘pincha soliq to‘lashdan qasddan bo‘yin tovlashdan emas, balki tadbirkorlikni ro‘yxatdan o‘tkazishni rasmiylashtirishda huquqiy tizimlarning yetarli emasligidan kelib chiqadi. Biroq, norasmiylik olib kelishi mumkin bo'lgan muammolar juda katta: u biznes rivojlanishiga katta to'siq bo'lishi mumkin; va mamlakatda tadbirkorlik va mehnat shartnomalari bajarilishining yo'qligi farovonlikka erishishni ancha qiyinlashtiradi. Ushbu monografiyada ushbu o'ziga xos muammolarga yechim taklif qilish o'rniga, biz o'quvchini De Soto (2000) kabi rivojlanish iqtisodiyotiga oid adabiyotlarga havola qilamiz.

The remainder of the monograph is organised as follows: Chapter 2 discusses the definition of the shadow economy and also its measurement. We then move on to examine the main causes of shadow economic activity before presenting the latest research on the size of the shadow economy worldwide. There is then a more detailed analysis of the shadow economy labour market and the relationship between the size of the shadow economy and unemployment. Finally, we consider various ways in which the shadow economy can be reduced. The appendices examine how shadow economic activity is taken into account in official national income statistics and provide further information on the size of the shadow economy country by country.

Monografiyaning qolgan qismi quyidagicha tashkil etilgan: 2-bobda yashirin iqtisodiyotning ta’rifi hamda uning o‘lchovi ko‘rib chiqiladi. Keyin biz butun dunyo bo'ylab yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmi bo'yicha so'nggi tadqiqotlarni taqdim etishdan oldin er osti iqtisodiy faoliyatning asosiy sabablarini o'rganishga o'tamiz. Shundan so‘ng yashirin iqtisodiyotdagi mehnat bozori va yashirin iqtisodiyot hajmi va ishsizlik o‘rtasidagi bog‘liqlik batafsilroq tahlil qilinadi. Va nihoyat, biz yashirin iqtisodiyotni kamaytirishning turli usullarini ko'rib chiqamiz. Ilovalar rasmiy milliy daromad statistikasida yashirin iqtisodiy faoliyat qanday hisobga olinishini o'rganadi va mamlakatlar bo'yicha yashirin iqtisodiyotning hajmi haqida qo'shimcha ma'lumot beradi.

II. How to measure the shadow economy.