The Next 100 Years

RUSSIA
RUSSIA
OTTOMAN EMPIRE
OTTOMAN EMPIRE
GERMAN
GERMAN
STATES
STATES
RUSSIA
POLAND
OTTOMAN EMPIRE
GERMAN
STATES
Poland 1660
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western portion of the former Russian empire and, in so doing, build an
economic bloc of substantial proportions.
The core weakness of the Polish bloc will be that it is relatively land-
locked. It will have ports on the Baltic, but those could be readily blocked
by any country with even minimal naval capabilities. The Skagerrak will be
a dangerous choke point. If it is the only outlet Poland has, then Poland’s
maritime line of supply to the United States and the rest of the world will be
strikingly vulnerable. The only other alternative will be to seek a port on the
Adriatic. Croatia, historically close to the Hungarians, will control the port of
Rijeka. Although it is limited, it certainly will be usable.
There will be two problems with using that port, both having to do with
the Turks. First, the Turks will be deeply involved in the Balkans, as will the
Hungarians and Romanians. As with all Balkan situations, this one will be a
tangle, with religious ties complicated by national hostility. The Turks will
not want to see the Polish bloc moving toward the Mediterranean, and will
use Bosnian–Croatian tensions to maintain insecurity. But even if that is
not an issue, the use of the Adriatic and Mediterranean will not be based on
the Polish bloc simply having a merchant fleet there. It will depend on con-
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Skagerrak
Skagerrak
Skagerrak