The Next 100 Years

p re s s u re s a n d a l l i a n c e s
The United States faced crises on multiple fronts a century before when, in 
the 1940s, Germany and Japan simultaneously challenged American inter­
ests. In that case as well, the United States followed a strategy of strengthen­
ing regional allies, aiding Britain and Russia against Germany, and China 
against Japan. Now, a century later, it will again be prepared to play a long 
game. It will have no desire to occupy or destroy either Turkey or Japan, 
much less Germany. The United States is playing a defensive game, block­
ing emerging power. It is not engaged in an offensive strategy, however it 
might appear. American strategy will be to wear down any threats over an 
extended period of time, causing potential opponents to bog down in con­
flicts they cannot bring to a close and cannot easily abandon. In this strategy 
the United States will always invoke the principles of self- determination and 
democratic values, painting Japan and Turkey as aggressors undermining 
national sovereignty while violating human rights. 
Alongside the public diplomacy, there will also be a series of more direct 
challenges. 
The first will be economic. The American market, still huge, will be an 
enormous consumer of Japanese and, to a lesser extent, Turkish products, 
and the United States will also remain the major source of new technolo­
gies. Getting cut out of the American market or technologies would be 
painful, to say the least. The United States will use these levers against both 
countries. It will stop the exportation of some technologies, particularly 
those with potential military applications, and limit the importation of 
some products from these countries. 
At the same time, the United States will support a range of nationalist 
movements in China, Korea, and India. Through the Polish bloc, the 
United States will also support nationalist Russian and Ukrainian move­
ments within the Turkish sphere of influence. The major American focus in 

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t h e n e x t 1 0 0 y e a r s
this strategy, however, will be in the Balkans and North Africa, particularly 
Egypt. In the Balkans, the Polish bloc (heavily dependent on Croatia) will 
steer clear of aligning with Serbia, Croatia’s old enemy, thus creating some­
thing of a buffer with Turkey. The United States will begin an aggressive 
program of supporting Serbian resistance against the Turks, and extending 
it to Macedonia. The Greeks, historical enemies of the Turks, will become 
close allies of the United States and support this effort, although they will 
stay clear of formal alignment with the Polish bloc. 
In many ways, from a geopolitical perspective, these alliances and ma­
neuvers are not difficult to predict. As I have said, they follow well- established 
patterns that have been ingrained in history for many centuries. What I am 
doing is seeing how traditional patterns play themselves out in the context 
of the twenty- first century. In this particular region, after the United States 
begins to support targeted resistance to the Turks, the Balkans will become 
a tinderbox and the Turks will spend an inordinate amount of resources in 
an area where their primary interest is defensive. They will be trying to pro­
tect the Bosporus and little else. If they retreat, their credibility (in their still 
uncertain sphere of influence) will be badly hurt. 
The United States also will try its hand at supporting Arab nationalism, 
both in Egypt and in the Arabian Peninsula. The Turks will be careful not to 
be excessively aggressive or greedy in asserting their power, but nevertheless
anti- Turkish feeling will be prevalent. This type of nationalist feeling will be 
exploited by the United States, not because Americans genuinely want it to 
go anywhere but in order to sap the strength of the Turks. Turkey will be 
concerned about U.S. aid to the Polish bloc and northern Africa. The goal 
of the United States will be to reshape and limit the behavior of the Turks, 
but any meddling will be far short of what Turkey regards as challenging its 
fundamental national interest.