The Next 100 Years

C H A P T E R 8
A n e w w o r l d e m e r g e s 
T
he collapse of Russia in the early 2020s will leave Eurasia as a whole 
in chaos. The Russian Federation itself will crack open as Moscow’s 
grip shatters. Regions, perhaps even the thinly populated Pacific re­
gion, will break away, its interests in the Pacific Basin far outweighing its in­
terest in or connection to Russia proper. Chechnya and the other Muslim 
regions will break off. Karelia, with close ties to Scandinavia, will secede. 
Such disintegration will not be confined to Russia. Other countries of the 
former Soviet Union will fragment as well. The burdens imposed by Moscow 
will be entirely unsustainable. Where previously the collapse of the Soviet 
Union led to oligarchs controlling the Russian economy, the collapse of the 
2020s will lead to regional leaders going their own way. 
This disintegration will take place during a period of Chinese regional­
ism. China’s economic crisis will kick off a regional phase in Chinese history 
that, during the 2020s, will intensify. The Eurasian landmass east of the 
Carpathians will become disorganized and chaotic as regions struggle for lo­
cal political and economic advantage, with uncertain borders and shifting 
alliances. In fact, fragmentation on both sides of the Chinese border, from 
Kazakhstan to the Pacific, will start to render the boundaries meaningless. 

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From the United States’ point of view, this will represent a superb out-
come. The fifth geopolitical imperative for the United States was that no
power be in a position to dominate all of Eurasia. With both China and
Russia in chaos, the possibility is more distant than ever. There is, in fact,
little need for the United States to even involve itself in maintaining the bal-
ance of power inside the region. In the coming decades the balance of power
will maintain itself.
Eurasia will become a “poacher’s paradise.” For the countries around
the periphery of the region, there will be extraordinary opportunities to
poach. The vast region is rich in resources, labor, and expertise. The col-
lapse of central authority will be an opportunity for countries on its pe-
riphery to take advantage of the situation. Fear, need, and avarice are the
perfect combination of factors that would allow the periphery to try to ex-
ploit the center.
Three nations will be in particularly opportune positions for taking ad-
vantage of this. First, Japan will be in a position to exploit opportunities in
the Russian maritime region and in eastern China. Second, Turkey will be
in a position to press northward into the Caucasus and potentially beyond.
Finally, an alliance of Eastern European countries, led by Poland, and in-
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