Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
9 
An International Consensus 
Forecast for Qatar Economy
There are many regional and international 
research centers and banks that prepare 
forecasts for the performance of the world's 
economies, of course including the economy 
of the State of Qatar, where such forecasts 
are issued and published on a large scale by 
international mega-companies, such as: 
Bloomberg, Refinitiv, and Focus Economics 
labeled as the so-called Consensus 
Forecasts. Such forecasts have become an 
informational reference standard for 
researchers, academics, investors, policy 
makers, economic planners, and workers 
staff in local and international economic 
institutions 
The latest forecasts, as shown in Table (1-3), 
indicate that the Qatari economy is likely to 
witness an average growth rate of 2.8% in 
2021, where the consensus expectations 
ranged between a maximum of 3.7% and a 
minimum of 1.6%, with a standard deviation 
of 0.6 percentage points. It is possible that 
some of these predictions are based on the 
assumptions that: (1) hydrocarbon exports 
will recover significantly, which will increase 
the flow of financial returns that will allow the 
government to finance many economic 
activities for the public, private and mixed 
corporation in Qatar, (2) the improvement of 
the state’s public budget balance and the 
balance of payments will boost the 
confidence of the public and private sectors, 
stimulating 
aggregate 
demand 
for 
investment, public and private consumption, 
and thereby promoting economic growth.
As for the GDP for 2022, consensus 
forecasts anticipate it to achieve an average 
growth of 3.7%, with these forecasts ranging 
between a maximum of 4.5% and a minimum 
of 2.5%, with a standard deviation of 0.6 
percentage points. Mostly, this growth is 
based on assumptions that many economic 
activities will increase as a result of hosting 
the FIFA World Cup towards the end of 
2022.
With regard to the consensus forecasts of the 
CPI, as shown in Table (1-3), the average 
inflation rate in 2021 will be 1.6%, with a 
maximum of 3.9%, and a minimum of 0.5%, 
while having a standard deviation of 0.8 
percentage points. The set of CPI figures is 
relatively consistent with the publications of 
the Planning and Statistics Authority during 
the period (January-November 2021), where 
it has been averaged at 1.97% with a 
minimum of negative 1.4% and a maximum 
of 6.1%, while having a standard deviation 
rate of 2.2 percentage points.
On the other hand, the International 
Monetary Fund forecasted that the CPI will 
rise by about 2.5% in 2021, and by 3.2% in 
2022, while the Economist Intelligence Unit 
(EIU) projected that it will rise only by about 
1.2% in 2021, but by about 3% in 2022. 
Despite the recent and projected continued 
rise in the average global oil and gas prices, 
two of the nine consensus forecasts, 
specifically the World Bank’s and Moody’s, 
suggest that the public budget (fiscal) 
balance for 2021 will register a deficit and 
minimal surplus respectively. Therefore, the 
average rate of the public budget (fiscal) 
balance for 2021 will be 2.2% of GDP, with a 
maximum of 5.4%, and a minimum of 
negative 2.3%, while having a standard 
deviation of 2.1 percentage points.
However, through utilizing the available of 
public finance data up to the end of Q3 of 
2021 published by the Ministry of Finance, 
the PSA forecasts the public finance balance 
to achieve a surplus of around 2% in 2021 for 
the three scenarios, followed by a larger 
surplus during 2022 and 2023, with a rate 
ranging between 2.3% and 3.6% for the 

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