Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Table 1-4: Qatar's GDP by Production, 2021 and 2023, (Annual rate of change) (%) 
% 
Estimate 
Base scenario 
Medium scenario 
Optimistic 
scenario 
2020 
Up to 
Q3 
2021* 
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 
Real GDP 
(2018=100) 
-3.6
 
1.4
1.5
1.6
0.7
1.9
2.3
1.5
2.3
2.9
1.8
Hydrocarbon GVA 
-2.0
-0.8
-0.7
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.0
Non-hydrocarbon 
GVA 
-4.5
2.9
2.9
2.8
1.3
3.3
3.7
2.4
3.9
4.7
2.9
Construction
-3.9
0.6
1.1
0.7
0.1
1.5
2.4
2.1
1.8
3.0
4.3
Manufacturing
-6.7
6.0
3.1
0.2
0.0
4.0
0.9
0.8
4.6
3.2
2.4
Service
-2.9
3.5
3.7
4.1
2.3
4.0
4.7
3.1
4.7
5.6
3.0
Source: Planning and Statistics Authority

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Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
12 
other qualitative and quantitative information 
related to hydrocarbon (oil) and non-
hydrocarbon (non-oil) activities, including the 
role of fiscal and monetary policies in 
revitalizing the economy, the preliminary 
predication results, as shown in Table (1-4), 
indicate that the annual rate of change of 
production-based GDP for 2021 will range 
between 1.5% and 2.3%, with a medium 
scenario of around 1.9%. 
As for the forecasts for the years 2022 and 
2023, they depend on assumptions that can 
be summarized as follows: