Qatar Economic Outlook Issue Number 13

Part 1: Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023 
15 
Manufacturing Sector 
In regard to the recovery of manufacturing 
activities, GDP data for the first three 
quarters of 2021 showed that it recovered by 
190%, with a big jump from negative 6.7% in 
2020 to positive 6% during the first three 
quarters of 2021. 
However, manufacturing activities are 
expected to stabilize during the fourth quarter 
of 2021, which is likely expected to result in a 
steady growth rate at the end of 2021 ranging 
between 3.1% and 4.6% for the base and 
optimistic scenarios, with the medium 
scenario at 2.9%. 
In relation to the degree of recovery of 
activities for the manufacturing sector during 
2022 and 2023, it will depend on the nature 
of the activity’s inputs: it is expected that the 
activities that have non-hydrocarbon inputs, 
such as: building materials, foodstuffs, etc., 
will grow by the amount of the growth of local 
and foreign investments to meet local 
demand and the possibility of export. On the 
other hand, activities whose inputs are 
hydrocarbons; For example: the oil refining 
and petrochemical industry, since many of its 
activities have hit the peak of their production 
capacity, they are anticipated to contribute at 
best at stable growth rates, but with a 
tendency to decline during routine 
maintenance periods. Thus, it is estimated to 
either stabilize between 0.2% and 0% for the 
base scenario during: 2022 and 2023 
respectively, or experience growth in the 
same two years for the middle scenario by 
less than 1% or grow more quickly in the 
optimistic scenario for the same two years by 
3.2 % and 2.4%, respectively. 
 
GDP Forecasts by the Expenditure 
In regard to the forecasts of GDP by 
expenditure approach, it depends on 
assumptions related to the current and future 
developments 
of 
household 
and 
government’s final consumption expenditure, 
gross capital formation, and the resource 
balance (net exports and imports of goods 
and services), and the impact of these on the 
level of GDP during the period (2021-2023), 
various combinations of these have been 
applied in order to ascertain the multi-variate 
factors that affect the course of changing 
expenditure components, as indicated in Box 
(1-3). Among the most important ones, 
according to the equations used at the 
present time, are: (1) the annual rate of 
change for the population, (2) the current 
consumption expenditure for the government
and household (private) sectors during the 
organization of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, 
and (3) the level of fixed capital investment 
directed at and related to the construction of 
the North Gas Field and its subsequent 
interactions with the level of imports. 
As for the level of final consumption 
expenditures of households (private)
in 2021, 
which have already improved from negative 
10.5% in 2020 to negative 6.4%
during the 
first half of 2021. It is supposed to recover 
further during the second half of 2021, thanks 
to the phasing out of the COVID-19 
containment measures, which will lead to an 
improvement in its rate of change from 
negative 10.5% in 2020 to negative 2% by 
the endo of 2021 in the base scenario, rising 
to negative 1 % in the medium scenario, and 
achieving a full recovery of 100% in the 
optimistic scenario.
It is also expected to move forward towards 
achieving the same consumption pattern in 
2022 for the base and middle scenario, and 
there is a possibility that it will achieve a 
growth of 1% for the optimistic scenario due 
to the expectations of the increase in 
consumption resulting from hosting the 2022 
World Cup, before declining by 1% in 2023 
(Table (1-5)). 

---