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Table 1-2: The World Economic Prospects by the World Bank
2021 2022 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2023 2021
2022 2021
2022
World
2.6
2.7
4.0
3.8
-3.5
5.6
4.3
3.1
3.0
1.6
1.6
0.5
Advanced economies
1.5
1.5
3.3
3.5
-4.7
5.4
4.0
2.2
3.9
2.5
3.9
2.5
United States
1.7
1.7
3.5
3.3
-3.5
6.8
4.2
2.3
5.1
2.5
5.1
2.5
Emerging market economies
4.3
4.4
5.0
4.2
-1.7
6.0
4.7
4.4
1.7
0.3
1.7
0.3
China
5.8
5.7
7.9
5.2
2.3
8.5
5.4
5.3
2.7
-0.3
2.7
-0.3
Middle East and North Africa
2.7
2.8
2.1
3.1
-3.9
2.4
3.5
3.2 -0.3
0.7
-0.3
0.7
Oil exporters
2.3
2.3
1.8
2.8
-4.2
2.3
3.5
3.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.2
Oil importers
4.6
4.6
3.2
4.3
-2.4
2.8
3.8
4.2 -1.8
-0.8
-1.8
-0.8
Private consumption
2.2
2.2
1.6
2.5
-3.4
2.4
2.6
2.7
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.4
Public consumption
2.3
2.4
1.0
1.7
0.6
1.9
1.3
1.4 -0.4
-1.1
-0.4
-1.1
Fixed investment
5.7
6.1
6.1
3.6
-9.6
3.5
5.4
5.3 -2.2
-0.7
-2.2
-0.7
Exports, GNFS
3.6
3.7
3.2
4.5
-10.3
4.6
5.3
5.2
1.0
1.6
1.0
1.6
Imports, GNFS
4.0
4.0
2.6
4.0
-13.8
4.2
5.0
5.1
0.2
1.0
0.2
1.0
GCC countries
2.6
2.7
1.6
2.7
-4.8
2.2
3.4
3.2 -0.4
0.7
-0.4
0.7
Saudi Arabia
2.2
2.4
2.0
2.2
-4.1
2.4
3.3
3.2
0.2
0.9
0.2
0.9
Kuwait
2.0
2.0
0.5
3.1
-5.4
2.4
3.6
2.8
0.4
1.6
0.4
1.6
Qatar
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
-3.7
3.0
4.1
4.5 -0.2
0.9
-0.2
0.9
UAE
3.0
3.0
1.0
2.4
-6.1
1.2
2.5
2.5 -1.8
-0.5
-1.8
-0.5
Difference between current and
base forecast of Jan 2020
(points), main assumptions
Forecasts & estimates (percentage change %) according
to World Bank WEP issues
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jun-21
Launching
vaccination
(Jun. 2021 to
Jan 2021)
Beginning of
easing
lockdown (Jun.
2021 to Jan.
2020)
Source: World Bank, Global Economic Prospects database, various issues, downloaded in June 2021
Qatar Economic Outlook 2021 - 2023
6
compared to January forecasts of 1.6%,
where most of the change derives from
revising the forecasts of the economic
recovery of Kuwait from 0.5% in January
2021 to 2.4% in June 2021. There was also a
slight improvement in the economic recovery
expectations of Saudi Arabia and the UAE by
2.4% and 1.2%, respectively. As for the State
of Qatar, the growth rate of its economy
remained unchanged at 3%.
In regard to the projections of growth rates for
MENA countries by expenditure components
for 2021 and 2022, Table (1-2) shows that the
prospects for the recovery of total capital
formation have been reduced from 6.1% in
January 2021 to 3.5% in June 2021. Thus,
the growth will be driven by the improvement
in private and public consumption, as well as
exports and imports.
The Covid-19 Crisis and
Qatar's Economic Outlook
It is well-known comprehended that the
Covid-19 pandemic has not yet come to an
end worldwide, as some countries are still
facing contending with large outbreaks of the
pandemic infection and its mutants (Omicron)
until December 2021, and even those
countries that have been able to control its
spread are still exposed to any coming wave,
a concern especially prevalent in the
Northern Hemisphere countries now living
winter, when people cluster indoors.
Just like other regional and global
economies, Qatar's economy was exposed
to two waves of the Covid-19 pandemic: the
first wave started in mid-March 2020 and the
number of infections continued to rise
dramatically until mid-May 2020. During this
wave, strict social distancing measures were
imposed to contain the spread of the virus. In
turn, this had negative impacts on overall
economic activities, especially for those
sectors whose activities involve large
gatherings, such as educational and health
services, shopping centers, tourism, and
sports activities, as well as the activities of
places of worship.
Once the number of infected cases started to
decline in May 2020, a gradual plan was
adopted to lift restrictions in four stages,
which began in June 2020 and ended in
September 2020, during which all closure
measures were gradually lifted, except for the
normal precautionary measures, such as the
wearing of masks, and the mandatory use of
the EHTERAZ application up until December
2021. This led to the start of a recovery
across all economic activities, some of which
have bounced back to their pre-pandemic
levels.
Although Covid infections continued during
the last quarter of 2020, these remained at a
relatively low level until the end of January
2021 when infections once again began to
increase; although they did not outpace the
first wave, the Covid-positive numbers were
a warning of the advent of a second wave.
However, as the number of infections
reached an alarmingly high-level during
February and March 2021, the government
was forced to gradually re-impose
containment measures for a second time,
though not to the same extent and degree as
during the first wave. The stringent measures
continued until a gradual easing of
containment measures started in early
October 2021, including the return 100% of
employees to their workplace (Box 1-3). For
more details, see Covid Development
Analysis at the end of this report.
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