Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
FIGURE 16
Ten-day availability forecast.
A
Business Date: 6/22/200X
Shift: 1 User: DH
Date/Time of printing 06/22/200X 12:27 PM
Software Version: 5.3006
Page 1 of 1
C
B
Date
Room Type
BK
BNDD
BNK
DD
HNDD
NDD
SBDD
SBK
SBK 1
SBNDD1
SBNK
SBNK 1
SHD
SK 2
Rooms Total:
6 
43 
16 
22 
2 
33 
2 
1 
4 
1 
2 
2 
1 
1
136
5
30
7 
14 
2 
20 
0
1 
4 
1 
1 
1 
1 
1
89 
Jun 22, 0X
Tue
4 
31 
8 
17 
2 
19 
0 
0 
4 
1 
1 
2 
1 
1
91
Jun 23, 0X
Wed
2 
33 
3 
19 
2 
24 
2 
–1 
4 
1 
2 
2 
1 
1
95
Jun 24, 0X
Thu
2 
0 
–1 
18 
2 
10 
1 
0 
4 
1 
1 
1 
1 
1
41 
Jun 25, 0X
Fri
7 
21 
8 
19 
2 
19 
1 
1 
4 
1 
2 
2 
1 
1
89 
Jun 26, 0X
Sat
7 
29 
14 
22 
2 
30 
2 
1 
4 
1 
1 
2 
1 
1
117 
Jun 27, 0X
Sun
7 
37 
15 
22 
2 
32 
2 
1 
4 
1 
2 
2 
1 
1
129 
Jun 28, 0X
Mon
6 
39 
14 
22 
2 
32 
2 
1 
4 
1 
2 
2 
1 
1
129 
Jun 29, 0X
Tue
6 
39 
15 
22 
2 
32 
2 
1 
4 
1 
2 
2 
1 
1
130 
Jun 30, 0X
Wed
E
D
Jul 01, 0X
Thu
244

---

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
Miller, the FOM at the 300-room Altoona Hotel, has—for a date eight days in the
future—50 rooms currently reserved by individual guests, and that she is holding a
group block of 100 rooms. The rooming list for the group block is due tomorrow
(one week before the group’s arrival). If the rooming list for the full block (100
rooms) is received by the hotel at the scheduled time, the number of actual sold
rooms would change from 50 to 150 at the time the rooming list names were entered
into the PMS. The impact on Allisha’s 10-day forecast would be significant, because
a room that is part of a block in the PMS is generally considered to be held, but not
sold, until it is actually assigned to an individual guest.
Hotels with business from large groups (and, consequently, large numbers of
rooming lists) will experience dramatic changes in confirmed occupancy rates when
rooming lists are actually entered into the PMS. Therefore, FOMs in these properties
should create and evaluate near-term forecasts on a daily basis, and sometimes even
more frequently.
FRONT OFFICE SEMANTICS
Rooming list:
Registry of the names of the specific individuals who are part of a group reservation.
The rooming list details each guest’s arrival and departure dates as well as the form of payment to
be used.
Thirty-Day Forecasts
In addition to near-term forecasts, most FOMs maintain 30-day forecasts that are
often outputs from the budgeting process. Hotels typically create an annual (12-
month) revenue and expense budget in monthly increments, so the 30-day, or
monthly, forecast is a common way to compare the hotel’s budget forecast with an
occupancy (or room revenue) forecast.
Recall that an FOM’s best forecast uses historical data from the PMS. These data
will likely include last year’s occupancy and booking pace and other statistics believed
to be relevant. Current data (e.g., the number of rooms on-the-books) from the PMS
would then be evaluated. Figure 17 is an example of using current data to develop a
30-day occupancy forecast at the Sleep Well Hotel. The report tallies current PMS
data on June 1 to create the monthly forecast for July (the following month). As
current PMS data change, so will the forecast; an FOM evaluates the same data to
prepare a forecast for any time period. In Figure 17, the FOM can consider the fol-
lowing PMS information 30 days before the start of the month for which the fore-
cast is prepared:
A. Run date indicates when the report was prepared.
B. Date column identifies the day of the month.
C. Day column identifies the day of the week.
D. Rooms column shows the total number of rooms in the hotel (141 in this
example).
E. OOO column represents the number of rooms that are estimated to be
unavoidably out of order and not be available for sale on a specific date (see
July 2).
245

---

FIGURE 17
Sleep Well Hotel—monthly occupancy detail for July 200X.
Run Date: 6/1/200X