Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
FIGURE 9
Transient occupancy analysis for the Altoona Hotel.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
January
February
March
April
May
June
Last Year
This Year
Linear (This Year)
51.5
53.7
53.8
55.1
60.2
63.3
62.4
65.1
59.7
62.3
60.4
62.9
230

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Fortunately, some sources of external trend data can be of tremendous value to
FOMs as they create occupancy forecasts. Two compilers and distributors whose
published data should be reviewed regularly are Smith Travel Research (STR) and
TravelCLICK. Founded in 1985 by Randy Smith, STR (often called as STAR) is the
older, more comprehensive, and better known of these two organizations. As an inde-
pendent third party, STR collects and distributes summaries of hotel data related
to historical performance. Although STR does not forecast future trends, profes-
sional FOMs use STR data to do so.
Each month STR collects performance data on more than 23,000 hotels, which
represents more than 2.8 million rooms. The data are provided by hotel chain head-
quarters, management companies, owners, and independent hotels. Data are audited
for accuracy and checked for adherence to STR reporting guidelines. STR personnel
also collect daily performance data from more than 18,000 hotels each week. The
data collected include number of hotel rooms available to sell, number of rooms sold,
and total room revenue. Using these data, STR personnel compute a variety of hotel
statistics such as these:
•
Property occupancy percentage
•
Property ADR
•
Property RevPar
•
Property percentage change from prior period
•