Pearson New International Edition International pcl tp indd 1

MANAGING FORECAST DATA
of stayovers and the actual number of reservations. The forecast must also be
adjusted by deducting the estimated number of no-shows and early departures
and by adding the estimated number of overstays. The PMS provides current
data about the number of reservations, and historical data can be used in esti-
mating the remaining variables (stayovers, reservation no-shows, early depar-
tures, and overstays). Experienced FOMs use PMS reports to estimate future
demand based on the impact of these factors on past room sales. On-the-books
(current demand) data must be factored into the forecast as must future data
related to anticipated business increases or decreases caused by, for example,
holidays (which may reduce demand) and activities in the community (which
may increase demand).