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PA R T T W E LV E
S H O R T - R U N E C O N O M I C F L U C T U AT I O N S
any price level is lower, the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the left. Conversely,
imagine that a stock market boom makes people feel wealthy and less concerned
about saving. The resulting increase in consumer spending
means a greater quan-
tity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, so the aggregate-
demand curve shifts to the right.
Thus, any event that changes how much people want to consume at a given
price level shifts the aggregate-demand curve. One policy variable that has this
effect is the level of taxation. When the government cuts taxes, it encourages
people to spend more, so the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the right. When
the government raises taxes, people cut back on their spending, and the aggregate-
demand curve shifts to the left.
S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m I n v e s t m e n t
Any event that changes how much
firms want to invest at a given price level also shifts the aggregate-demand curve.
For
instance, imagine that the computer industry introduces a faster line of
computers, and many firms decide to invest in new computer systems. Because
the quantity of goods and services demanded at any price level is higher, the
aggregate-demand curve shifts to the right. Conversely,
if firms become pes-
simistic about future business conditions, they may cut back on investment spend-
ing, shifting the aggregate-demand curve to the left.
Tax policy can also influence aggregate demand through investment. As we
saw in Chapter 25, an investment tax credit (a tax rebate tied to a firm’s investment
spending) increases the quantity of investment goods that firms demand at any
given interest rate. It therefore shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right.
The repeal of an investment tax credit reduces investment and shifts the aggregate-
demand curve to the left.
Another policy variable that can influence investment and aggregate demand
is the money supply. As we discuss more fully in the next chapter, an increase
in the money supply lowers the interest rate in the short run. This makes borrow-
ing
less costly, which stimulates investment spending and thereby shifts the
aggregate-demand curve to the right. Conversely, a decrease in the money supply
raises the interest rate, discourages investment spending, and thereby shifts the
aggregate-demand curve to the left. Many economists believe that throughout U.S.
history changes in monetary policy have been an important
source of shifts in ag-
gregate demand.
S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m G o v e r n m e n t P u r c h a s e s
The most direct way
that policymakers shift the aggregate-demand curve is through government pur-
chases. For example, suppose Congress decides to reduce purchases of new
weapons systems. Because the quantity of goods and services demanded at any
price level is lower, the aggregate-demand curve shifts to the left. Conversely, if
state governments start building more highways, the result is a greater quantity of
goods and services demanded at any price level, so the aggregate-demand curve
shifts to the right.
S h i f t s A r i s i n g f r o m N e t E x p o r t s
Any event that changes net exports
for a given price level also shifts aggregate demand. For instance, when Europe ex-
periences a recession, it buys fewer goods from the United States. This reduces
U.S. net exports and shifts the aggregate-demand curve for the U.S. economy to
C H A P T E R 3 1
A G G R E G AT E D E M A N D A N D A G G R E G AT E S U P P LY
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the left. When Europe recovers from its recession, it starts buying U.S. goods again,
shifting the aggregate-demand curve to the right.
Net exports sometimes change because of movements in the exchange rate.
Suppose, for instance, that international speculators bid up the value of the U.S.
dollar in the market for foreign-currency exchange. This appreciation of the dollar
would make U.S. goods more expensive compared to foreign goods, which would
depress net exports and shift the aggregate-demand curve to the left. Conversely,
a depreciation of the dollar stimulates net exports
and shifts the aggregate-
demand curve to the right.
S u m m a r y
In the next chapter we analyze the aggregate-demand curve in
more detail. There we examine more precisely how the tools of monetary and fis-
cal policy can shift aggregate demand and whether policymakers should use these
tools for that purpose. At this point, however, you should have some idea about
why the aggregate-demand curve slopes downward and what kinds of events and
policies can shift this curve. Table 31-1 summarizes what we have learned so far.
Ta b l e 3 1 - 1
T
HE
A
GGREGATE
-D
EMAND
C
URVE
: S
UMMARY
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