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10.3.3
Asset allocation and portfolio rebalancing
Asset allocations were considered to gain insights into the balance of portfolios across asset
classes over time.
This is important from the perspective of categorising insurance and pension fund sub-sectors as
multipliers of risks to financial stability or otherwise. Traditionally, insurance undertakings and
pension funds have been viewed as
dampeners
of the fire sale mechanism through portfolio
rebalancing activities. In broad terms, in order to maintain a certain asset allocation (e.g., a 50-50
split between equities and bonds), institutions have to increase their holdings of assets with falling
valuations, all else equal. This means that insurance undertaking
and pension fund behaviour
serves to alleviate financial instability, for instance, reducing price volatility by carrying out
purchases when prices are falling. If instead, pension funds take up alternative investments in
times of stress for
particular asset classes, they may act as a multiplier for the fire sale mechanism
and therefore financial instability.
The data suggests that insurance undertakings and pension funds are shifting toward alternative
investments and may therefore act as a multiplier for the fire sale mechanism in the future. This is
evidenced through the Eurostat sectoral balance sheet data shown below for insurance
undertakings and pension funds as a whole.
Evidence from other sources is consistent with the view that insurance undertakings and pension
funds have reasonable portfolio holdings of
non-equity, non-bond assets. Table 20 describes the
asset allocations of four relatively conservative pension funds in Denmark and the Netherlands,
among others, in which one observes a relatively high take-up of alternative investments after the
crisis.
Table 20: Asset allocation of selected pension funds
ABP
PFZW
PFA
Metaal Bedrijven
Equities
33.1
31.7
8.6
23.5
Bonds
40.3
29.9
84.3
54.7
Real estate
9.4
14.5
5.0
8.2
Hedge funds and
PE
9.9
7.4
2.1
12.3
Commodities
2.9
6.3
0.0
0.4
Cash and deposits
0.7
4.1
0.0
0.0
Other
3.7
6.2
0.0
0.9
Source: Source: OECD Pensions Markets in Focus (2010)
This is complemented by statistical information suggesting a growing appetite for alternative
investments (hedge funds, private equity and commodities), as well
as emerging-market bonds
and emerging-market equities, as described in Antonin, Schich and Yermo (2011). For instance,
allocations to hedge funds and private equity have increased in recent years in countries such as
Ireland (from 0.8% in 2005 to 2.4% in 2008).
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Moreover, one stakeholder described how this move towards alternative investments had
occurred prior to the crisis among pension funds in Finland, a major reason for which was a
loosening of regulations regarding eligible investments for pension funds.
Some commentators have suggested the move towards alternative
investments may be a trend
for the future (OECD, 2008). For instance, individual participants in DC schemes may shift out of
struggling asset classes if they take a short-term view of, say, returns to equity. Managers of DB
schemes may also move into alternative investments if asset values are too far
below liability
values and regulatory requirements force them to sell equities at a loss.
Figure 44 below also shows reasonable asset allocations in non-equity and non-debt securities for
insurance undertakings in OECD countries in 2010.
Figure 44: Insurance undertaking asset allocations for selected investment categories in selected
OECD countries, 2010
Source: OECD Pensions Markets in Focus (2011)
10.3.4
Asset allocations of the insurance sector and the sovereign debt crisis
Overall, the insurance industry’s allocation to public sector debt
is important, with the portfolio
share typically exceeding 30 percent for those countries reporting data. Based on OECD data, it
can be observed that, within the bond category, insurance undertakings in a large number of
countries allocated a substantial portion of their bond holdings to bonds issued by the public
sector. A worsening of government bond valuations therefore potentially has an important impact
on the financial position of the insurance sector (Figure 45).