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Safety Assessment Criteria

To assess FS and identify its dependence on the properties of ATS use various criteria for evaluating FS. These criteria usually include qualitative and quantitative indicators (Fig. 6).

Probabilistic

FS assessment criteria

Quality

Quantitative

Statistical

Relative

Absolute

Probabilistic

models

Economic

probabilistic

Analytical

Fig. 6. Classification of safety assessment criteria

A qualitative assessment is carried out in order to identify potentially dangerous groups of adverse factors for the “crew-aircraft" system - the main link in the automatic telephone exchange, as well as the reasons for their occurrence and possible consequences. Based on a qualitative assessment, the effectiveness of the accident warning quality system at all levels of the ATS is determined, program measures are developed to increase the reliability of the operation of CA objects. The use of indicators for quantifying FS is based on the development of methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory. Quantitative indicators are divided into statistical and probabilistic. Statistical criteria are used to calculate FS indicators for the entire previous history of the operation of aircraft or for a certain period. These criteria are formed on the basis of information on losses and useful work. Statistical criteria are classified as absolute and relative. The former take into account the absolute number of losses n, and the latter, in addition, useful work. Absolute criteria make it possible to identify the general trend in the state of FS for a certain period, but they do not reflect the level of FS. More universal are the relative criteria of A/C, in which the number of events from the aircraft is given for a certain amount of operating time or work performed.
K₁ = (nc / T) x10⁵ - the number of accidents per 100,000 flight hours.
K₂ = (nc / N) x10⁵ - the number of accidents per 100,000 flights.
K₃ = (nc / L) x10⁸- the number of accidents per 100 million km of raid.

                               

K₄ = (Ldead.pass./Ltransp.) X10⁶ - the number of dead passengers per 1 million

                                                 transported.

K₅ = (Ldead.pass./Apass./km.) X10⁸ - the number of dead passengers per 100 million

                                                pass./km.

The main probabilistic criteria for FS are:

P is the probability of a successful flight outcome;

Q = 1 - P - the probability of an unsuccessful outcome of the flight, or the degree of risk.