Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

North Korea War Turns Econ

A war with North Korea would damage the US economy
Witt 10 (Ryan May 25, 2010, Political Buzz Examiner, http://www.examiner.com/x-5738-Political-Buzz-Examiner~y2010m5d25-What-a-war-with-North-Korea-would-mean)KFC

If a war did break out the U.S. and South Korea would likely be victorious in the end, but nearly everyone agrees that the costs would be tremendous. The Pentagon has played out a number of war games involving war with North. Most end with the U.S. "winning," but not without significant casualties along the way. Conservatives estimates have over 100,000 dying in the first few days of the conflict. The North Koreans have an army over 1,000,000 men and many armored divisions. The border between the two countries is littered with thousands of land mines. More importantly, they have significant stockpile of over 2,000 tons of chemical weapons and the means to deliver them into South Korea via ballistic missiles. If that prospect is not scary enough, the North also has some kind of nuclear weapon capabilities now, though it is unknown how they could deliver the weapon. Finally, any conflict would also risk a global escalation involving China, who has traditionally been an ally of the North Koreans. This would not be an Iraq or Afghanistan where the U.S. military is simply able to swoop in with "shock and awe" to overwhelm the enemy. Significant casualties would occur on both sides in this war. The picture is gets worse when you consider the economic side of the equation. The war would certainly take a toll on the South Korean economy when the North launches all their offensive weapons over the border. The South Korean economy is the 15th largest in the world with a GDP of $832 billion. Compare that number with the GDP of Greece ($330 billion) whose economic troubles nearly caused another global crisis. The U.S trades much more with South Korea as well. We sent approximately $2.48 billion worth of goods to Greece last year compared with $28.64 billion we sent to South Korea. A war on the Korean peninsula would greatly endanger what is already a very fragile economic recovery. Simply put, any sane person would want to avoid a war on the Korean peninsula if at all possible. Most believe the United States and South Korea are doing all they can to avoid an armed conflict. However, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il has not always been known for rationality. We can only hope that he realizes the consequences of his actions in the coming days and weeks.

North Korea War Turns BCW’s

A US North Korea war would result in a transfer of chemical and nuclear weapons
Witt 10 (Ryan May 25, 2010, Political Buzz Examiner, http://www.examiner.com/x-5738-Political-Buzz-Examiner~y2010m5d25-What-a-war-with-North-Korea-would-mean)KFC

If a war did break out the U.S. and South Korea would likely be victorious in the end, but nearly everyone agrees that the costs would be tremendous. The Pentagon has played out a number of war games involving war with North. Most end with the U.S. "winning," but not without significant casualties along the way. Conservatives estimates have over 100,000 dying in the first few days of the conflict. The North Koreans have an army over 1,000,000 men and many armored divisions. The border between the two countries is littered with thousands of land mines. More importantly, they have significant stockpile of over 2,000 tons of chemical weapons and the means to deliver them into South Korea via ballistic missiles. If that prospect is not scary enough, the North also has some kind of nuclear weapon capabilities now, though it is unknown how they could deliver the weapon. Finally, any conflict would also risk a global escalation involving China, who has traditionally been an ally of the North Koreans. This would not be an Iraq or Afghanistan where the U.S. military is simply able to swoop in with "shock and awe" to overwhelm the enemy. Significant casualties would occur on both sides in this war. The picture is gets worse when you consider the economic side of the equation. The war would certainly take a toll on the South Korean economy when the North launches all their offensive weapons over the border. The South Korean economy is the 15th largest in the world with a GDP of $832 billion. Compare that number with the GDP of Greece ($330 billion) whose economic troubles nearly caused another global crisis. The U.S trades much more with South Korea as well. We sent approximately $2.48 billion worth of goods to Greece last year compared with $28.64 billion we sent to South Korea. A war on the Korean peninsula would greatly endanger what is already a very fragile economic recovery. Simply put, any sane person would want to avoid a war on the Korean peninsula if at all possible. Most believe the United States and South Korea are doing all they can to avoid an armed conflict. However, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il has not always been known for rationality. We can only hope that he realizes the consequences of his actions in the coming days and weeks.

North Korea War Turns Heg

Bush’s calling North Korea part of the ‘axis of evil’ dooms any war to have the same fate as the Iraq war, a collapse of heg
Odom 7 (William E., Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Yale University, Proceedings Of The American Philosophical Society, 151(4), December 2007, http://www.amphilsoc.org/sites/default/files/1510403.pdf)KFC

Once the president announced the “axis of evil” thesis in his State of the Union address to Congress in January 2002, however, that support began to decline. NATO invoked Article 5 of the treaty for the first time in the history of the alliance, declaring that al Qaeda’s attack on the United States was also an attack on all other members. They signed up to fight al Qaeda. They were shocked to learn that the president was declaring war on Iraq, Iran, and North Korea without even consulting them. His so-called “global war on terrorism” was being stretched to justify invasions of countries anywhere, something that most allies understandably refused to accept. Failure to gain UN Security Council approval for the invasion of Iraq ensured that the financial costs of the war, not to mention the loss of life and moral standing in world opinion, would be huge, and that the quality of the coalition members would be poor. For example, the coalition in 1991 had French troops; in 2003 it had Ukrainian, Polish, and Honduran troops, and even a few from Mongolia! The costs of the war rise every day, well above $300 billion, and we can be sure that other countries will not share them with the American taxpayer. The president may have delighted many American voters by asserting U.S. sovereignty against the will of our allies in the UN Security Council— behavior we would normally expect of a French government, not of the government that built the post–World War II international order— but they will not be delighted with the impact of the action on their pocketbooks for years to come. As a spectacular example of how to squander American hegemony— fiscally, militarily, politically, and morally—the war in Iraq will probably turn out to be the greatest strategic mistake in American history. Can we still save the American empire? Or is it too late? We can, but we must act soon. The first step must be withdrawal from Iraq. That invasion was never in American interests. Rather, it advanced the interests of Iran by avenging Saddam’s invasion of that country. And it advanced al Qaeda’s interests by making Iraq open for its cadres. They are killing both Americans and Iraqis there in growing numbers, and taking their newly gained skills to other countries. Many reports suggest that al Qaeda was in desperate condition by spring 2002 and that only after the U.S. invasion of Iraq did its recruiting powers recover and its funding sources replenish its coffers. Apparently, President Bush came to Osama bin Laden’s rescue in his nadir. The irony would be comical if it were not so tragic.