Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Oil Dependence Turns Democracy/Terrorism

Oil dependence prevents democracy promotion and encourages terrorism

Luft 5 [Gal, Executive Director, Institute for The Analysis of Global Security, October 20, Congressional Testimony, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/LuftTestimony051020.pdf]

Four years after September 11 it is essential that we view our geopolitical situation in the context of our oil dependence and realize that it will be extremely difficult to win the war on terror and spread democracy around the world as long as we continue to send petrodollars to those who do not share our vision and values. As long as the U.S. remains dependent on oil to the degree that its does today, its dependence on the Middle East will grow. The U.S. can no longer afford to postpone urgent action to strengthen its energy security and it must begin a bold process toward reducing its demand for oil.

Oil Dependence Turns Equality/Human Rights/Poverty/Patriarchy

Oil dependence increases societal inequity, human rights abuse, patriarchy and poverty

Luft 5 [Gal, Executive Director, Institute for The Analysis of Global Security, October 20, Congressional Testimony, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/LuftTestimony051020.pdf]

It is a sad fact of life that most of the world's leading oil producing countries are either politically unstable and/or at serious odds with the U.S. With the exception of Canada and Norway, all major oil-exporting countries suffer from severe social illnesses due to their failure to absorb the shock of an oil jackpot and distribute the wealth on an equitable basis. This is not an accident. Countries rich in easily extracted and highly lucrative natural resources do not have to invest in education, productivity, or economic diversification. In addition, the government does not feel obligated to be accountable or transparent to its people and it denies them representation. They also have no imperative to educate women and grant them equal rights. While their oil wealth allows them to be the strategic pivot of world politics and economy, these “trust fund states’” record on human rights, political stability and compliance with international law is abysmal. Only three of the world's ten largest oil producers are democracies and only 9 percent of the world's proven oil reserves are in the hands of countries ranked free by Freedom House.

Oil Dependence Turns Democracy/Human Right/Prolif

Oil dependence hinders democracy, prolif, and human rights progress

Luft 5 [Gal, Executive Director, Institute for The Analysis of Global Security, October 20, Congressional Testimony, http://foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/LuftTestimony051020.pdf]

The Uzbek case is a harbinger of things to come. Unlike the U.S. which bars companies from doing business with some unsavory regimes China’s state-owned companies turn a blind eye to the way petrodollars are used by the local governments. In the global contest for oil the U.S. loses ground as a result of its pressure for government reform. Dictators who view democracy with suspicion don’t like to be pressured to reform especially when U.S. pressure can bring an end to their regimes. They much more prefer selling their oil to countries which turn a blind eye to the way petrodollars are used and who are willing to pay top dollars for oil and not lecture to them on democracy and human rights. The growing economic power of OPEC producers enables them to resist U.S. pressure on a variety of issues from human rights to nuclear proliferation. As the second largest oil producer and holder of 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves Iran is fully aware of the power of its oil. Its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned in 2002: “If the west did not receive oil, their factories would grind to a halt. This will shake the world!" The Iranians also know that oil is their insurance policy and that the best way to forestall U.S. efforts in the UN is by bedding themselves with energy hungry powers such as Japan and the two fastest growing energy consumers—China and India. After securing the support of a third of humanity the Iranians are unfazed by the pressure coming from the U.S. and the EU. Last month Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned that Iran could wield the oil weapon if Tehran's case was sent to the Security Council for possible sanctions.

Oil Dependence Turns Transparency/Human Rights

Oil dependence fuels authoritarianism and corruption

Drezner 8 [Daniel W, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, October 30, National Interest, http://www.nationalinterest.org/Article.aspx?id=20096]

As the price of oil and other natural resources has risen over the past decade, Russia has become more dysfunctional, corrupt, dictatorial and assertive. And oil wealth everywhere—from Venezuela to Iran to Russia—breeds independence from and indifference to international norms, markets and rules.

Oil Dependence Turns Economy

Oil dependence causes US economic collapse

Duncan 7 [Garry Senior Executive for Accenture Finance and Performance Management, Business Times, November 12, http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article2852863.ece]

We have all been pretty lucky so far. Over the past four years oil prices have soared ever higher, yet the world economy has just kept on motoring – literally and metaphorically. While the twin oil shocks of the Seventies brought global growth to a juddering halt and plunged the West into prolonged and painful recessions, things have been very different this time around – so far, at least. As oil prices have risen from a quite-hard-to-recall $30 a barrel as recently as the end of 2003 to $50 in 2004, $60 in 2005, $70 in 2006 and, in recent weeks, more than $90 a barrel, the global economy has cruised on almost regardless. The past few years have, in fact, marked the strongest sustained worldwide economic boom since the Seventies. Yet with analysts now sounding warnings that the cost of crude will almost inevitably breach $100 a barrel within days, the question is: can the world’s luck last? Are we, finally, reaching a tipping point where the relentless bad news from the black stuff will at last exact a real economic toll? Worryingly, it seems likely that we are, indeed, approaching just such a threshold. To understand why, we need to consider the key factors that have insulated the West’s oil-consuming nations from the impact of surging energy costs and whether we can continue to rely on these to shield our economies as crude prices climb into triple digits. The West can at least continue to draw considerable comfort from the knowledge that, essential to our economies though oil may be, our dependence on it has vastly diminished since the Seventies. What economists call the “oil intensity” of GDP – the amount of oil needed for each pound of national output we produce – has dropped to just 15 per cent of its level in 1970. Even gas-guzzling America needs only 13 per cent of the oil that it required in the Seventies for each dollar of output. And Europe’s “oil intensity” is a tenth of what it was back then. While this reduced reliance on crude is reassuring, two further vital factors that have helped the developed world to escape any serious economic fallout from dearer energy now fail to offer the protection that they have up to this point. First, the dynamic behind spiralling oil prices has shifted. Over the past few years, the driving force propelling the cost of crude to ever-greater highs has been the potent demand for energy created by a very robust global economy. Now, however, oil prices are continuing to climb even as prospects for world growth next year are deteriorating sharply. It is true that demand for oil continues to be reinforced by China’s burgeoning appetite for energy, with rising Chinese consumption taking up three quarters or more of any extra crude production. Yet it still seems apparent that, on top of this, significant concerns over supply and a very substantial speculative element are giving added impetus to prices. ING, the investment bank, notes that speculative long positions in the crude market, betting on oil reaching prices well in excess of $100, and as high as $200, are at extreme levels not seen for years. More serious than this changed dynamic behind oil’s rise, however, is that the surge in crude comes at a time when the US economy is dangerously vulnerable. The world economy’s resilience to oil’s rapid rise during this decade has owed a great deal to the ability of a robust American expansion to absorb shocks of all sorts. This time, though, this first line of defence for global growth looks very weak indeed. The US economy is already reeling from the impact of a brutal housing slump and the severe credit squeeze sparked by the resulting shake out in the sub-prime mortgage market. Now, America faces a further “double whammy” as the record cost of crude undermines growth while at the same time triggering a leap in US inflation that will seriously impede the Federal Reserve’s ability to respond with lower interest rates. As Capital Economics suggests in a timely report today, the malign combination of badly faltering growth with rising inflationary pressures now confronting the United States raises the spectre of another Seventies economic terror – stagflation. The risks to US growth are all too clear. The knock-on effects of oil prices could see the cost of gasoline for US motorists rise by as much as 50 per cent over the next couple of months. On top of that, the average American’s home heating bill is set to double this winter. Combined with the continued toll from the housing market’s downturn and the credit squeeze, it is far from implausible that these blows will see the US economy shrink in the final quarter of this year. Yet at the same time, the Fed is likely to have to grapple with a probable jump in inflation. Capital Economics forecasts that the effects of sharply increased energy costs could push headline US inflation to nearly 5 per cent, levels not seen for 16 years, by December. With the plunge in the dollar also stoking inflationary pressures in America, the almost inevitable consequence of this for the Fed will be that it will take longer to deliver the cuts in interest rates that will ultimately be necessary to shore up economic activity. In turn, that points to a more painful outcome, not just for America, but for the rest of the world.

Oil Prices Turn Democracy

High oil prices erodes stability in developing democracies- Putin, Chavez prove

Sandalow 7 [David, Staff Writer, Brookings Institute, January 22, ttp://www.brookings.edu/views/papers/fellows/sandalow20070122.pdf]

Oil wealth also corrodes democratic institutions. This dynamic is not inevitable, but it is widespread. A growing body of scholarly work explores this topic, concluding that oil wealth is strongly associated with corruption and authoritarian rule.7 A few examples underscore this trend. Bahrain, the Persian Gulf country with the smallest oil reserves, was also the first to hold free elections.8 As oil prices climbed in recent years, both Vladmir Putin and Hugo Chavez moved away from democratic institutions and toward more authoritarian rule. In Nigeria, oil abundance contributes to widespread corruption.

Oil Prices Turn Terrorism

Higher Oil Prices Fuel Terrorism

Biondo, 10 [Gabriella, St. Louis Globe, April 4, “http://www.globe-democrat.com/news/2010/mar/04/vets-launch-ad-tying-foreign-oil-money-terrorists/]

Operation Free, a coalition of veterans against using foreign oil, launched a new ad campaign in St. Louis Thursday tying U.S. foreign oil dependence to terrorist funding and attacks on U.S. soldiers. Operation Free representatives said they'll commit over $93,000 in Missouri as part of the nearly million dollar ad campaign – which ties Iran’s ability to create new and powerful weapons used against our troops to our addiction to oil. The Missouri ad calls on U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill to pass comprehensive clean energy legislation that proponents say will stop funding of U.S. enemies. The ad is paid for by VoteVets.org Action Fund in coordination with Operation Free. The ad features Iraq War and U.S. Army Veteran Christopher Miller, who earned a Purple Heart as the result of an explosion from an Improvised Explosive Device (IED). Miller then highlights the destructive potential of a newer and more powerful explosive device, the Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP), which the coalition says was brought to Iraq from Iran and then used against U.S. troops. In the ad, Miller says every time the price of a barrel of oil increases $1, Iran makes another $1.5 billion, enhancing their ability to create weapons to be used against our troops. The world oil market depends greatly upon Iranian supply and the United States, as the top consumer of oil in the world, significantly drives up oil prices. The ad urges people to contact their congressional representatives seeking their support for energy independence legislation. The Missouri add ends with the message: “Tell Senator McCaskill: It's Time To Lead. Pass Clean Energy and Climate Legislation.” A coalition spokesperson says they're calling on McCaskill because she has been tentatively supportive of Clean Energy Climate legislation for a while and now. There is no current law, but the coalition said lawmakers in Washington are now drafting legislation and "McCaskill's voice is an important one to have a the table during the drafting and negotiation of the legislation." Laura Myron, spokesperson for U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill said, “Senator McCaskill has long said that our country’s dependence on foreign oil is a serious problem that, among other things, creates a national security risk, especially for our brave troops abroad. As the Senate considers energy legislation, she will keep this important aspect of the issue in mind.” Operation Free organizers said members are veterans and national security organizations dedicated to securing America with clean energy. They said U. S. dependence on foreign oil is funding our enemies, making America vulnerable, and causing destabilizing climate change.

Oil Prices Turn Heg

High oil prices collapse heg

EAC 4/15 [Energy and Capital, newsletter, 2010, http://seekingalpha.com/article/198870-u-s-military-issues-peak-oil-warning]

If you haven't heard the latest peak oil warning, you should definitely take a minute to catch up. A few days ago, the U.S. military cautioned that the oil production capacity could disappear within two years, with major shortages occurring in 2015. It was the last place I thought I'd hear a peak oil alarm sound. To be honest, I would have expected the Department of Energy to send this out, rather than our military. Then again, I'm not really surprised that the U.S. military is losing sleep over the upcoming peak oil crisis. Think about it, dear reader. Here's some sobering reminders that our military is shackled to its thirst for crude oil: Out of the $20 billion the U.S. military spent on energy in 2008, 82.5% was to purchase crude oil. That's pretty scary considering oil prices collapsed during the second half of the year. The U.S. military consumes well over 300,000 barrels of oil every day The U.S. Department of Defense is (and always will be, in my humble opinion) the single largest energy consumer in the world. In 2007, the average U.S. soldier used up 15 gallons of oil per day, making the American fighting men and women the most oil-consuming soldiers ever to stand on a battlefield. If you have ever wondered how our U.S. military's energy consumption breaks down, check this out: When we're sliding down the backside of peak oil, the truth is that the U.S. military stands to lose more than anyone else.

Oil Prices Turns Russia/Global Econ

High oil prices empowers Russia and destroying the global economy

Nyquist 9 [J.R., Regular geopolitical columnist for Financial Sense Online August 21, http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/0821.html]

In this way Russia strengthens Iran while weakening the position of Israel and the United States. It goes without saying that Moscow envisions the destabilization of the Middle East and the disruption of its main centers of oil production and shipping. Should Iran unleash biochemical warheads against Israel, there would be a further escalation of violence with the result that oil prices would reach -- according to Filin -- $200-$300 per barrell. The consequences, of course, would be devastating for the oil-dependent Western economies, which are already suffering from widespread financial troubles. On the Russian side, however, high oil prices would empower the Russian state while stabilizing the Iranian clerical regime under a defiant nationalist banner. Moscow also envisions the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a massive mobilization of terrorists, and a fresh violence in Iraq. According to Filin, "Upon learning of the Arctic Sea and its cargo, a major Western state that favors a strategic partnership with Ukraine, was prepared to intercept the ship. But fearing this would cause a serious international scandal that would disrupt the 'reboot' of its relations with the Putin regime, the [aforesaid] state decided to act informally, which it did."