Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Global Warming Turns Asian Stability

Climate change threatens Asian stability- India-Bangladesh tension

Chowdury 2007 [Afsan December 28, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, http://www.iiss.org/whats-new/iiss-in-the-press/press-coverage-2007/december-2007/climate-change-brings-threats-of-war/]

Global climate change presents a serious national security threat that could affect Americans at home, impact U.S. military operations, and heighten global tensions, finds a study released recently by a blue-ribbon panel of 11 of the most senior retired U.S. admirals and generals as stated by the panel known as the Military Advisory Board. "We will pay for this one way or another," said retired U.S. Marine Corps General Anthony Zinni, former commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East. "We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we'll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll." "The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and international role to help stabilize climate changes at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability," the Military Advisory Board recommends. The study, "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change," says that climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" in already fragile regions of the world, creating the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. The CNA Corporation, a nonprofit research and analysis organization, brought together the 11 retired four-star and three-star admirals and generals as a Military Advisory Board to provide advice, expertise and perspective on the impact of climate change on national security. CNA writers and researchers compiled the report under the board's direction and review. Meanwhile closer at home the threat is taking its early shapes. India is already putting fences on its border with Bangladesh, one of the longest borders between any two countries, to stop Bangladeshis from crossing. It claims millions of Bangladeshis have crossed over to India after 1972. That figure may look small if one-third of Bangladesh drowns and millions try to enter India, seeking safety. Two dangerous components of possible conflicts arouse great fear. One, the spark of communalism-related conflict which both countries are subjected to and two, terrorism-related opportunities inherent in a region where it appears already firmly planted. Should India aggressively stop fleeing refugees from entering, repercussions are obvious. Such measures may lead to communal interpretation of these actions. India may quickly be painted as stopping Muslims from reaching safety. On the other hand, stopping Hindu refugees from Bangladesh will be cause problem within India. So whatever be the scenario, communalism may rise to conflict level in both countries and there are many forces in both countries ready to take advantage.

Global Warming Turns Central Asian Stability

Global warming causes Central Asian stability- economy, agricultural cultivation

TR 9 [Technical Reform, International Green Week, January 16, http://www.irthebest.com/globalwarming_climate_change_in_central_asia.html]

Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change not only in Central Asia but worldwide. Despite the enormous progress of scientific knowledge and technological developments in recent decades, weather is still the major factor in agricultural productivity. It is acknowledged that the impacts of climate change are highly location specific. In Central Asia, water and agricultural sectors are likely to be the most sensitive to the negative effects of global warming. The major factors related to climate change affecting agricultural productivity in Central Asia: increasing temperature, and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, changes of precipitation, surface water access and extreme weather conditions. Temperature will rise in average- even if Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions are stabilized at current levels - and the water coverage as well as surface runoff will also alter in the region. However rising concentration of carbon in the atmosphere could benefit certain crop yields (e.g. maize and sorghum), it can not compensate the negative impacts of more intense droughts and floods. Central Asia significantly contributes to global warming by generating large volume of GHG emissions, and agricultural sector is among the major contributors. Agriculture is a significant sector of the economy in the Central Asian countries, with around 60% of the population living in rural areas, occupying more than 40% of the total labor force, and agriculture accounting for approximately 25% of GDP on average. Kazakhstan is the only exception with agriculture accounting for only 8% of GDP (but still around 33% of total employment). Currently the two most significant crops in Central Asia are cotton and wheat. It is foreseen that due to global warming, agricultural productivity in Central Asia might suffer severe losses because of high temperature, severe drought, flood conditions, and soil degradation, which may endanger food security and agriculturally-based livelihood systems in the region. Climate change poses serious threats to the region’s rural population, which can lead to accelerated rural-urban migration, increased urban unemployment and consequently, social and political tensions.

Global Warming Turns South Asian Stability

Conflict is escalating in South Asia due to increased climate change.

Sappenfield 7 [Mark, Staff writer of the Christian Science Monitor, December 6 http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/1206/p13s02-wogi.htm]

The reason he gives is one heard throughout this corner of India, where Himalayan peaks give way to fertile flood plains: Immigrants from Bangladesh are taking over. It is a visceral fear in India's Northeast, where people say they feel under siege – their culture, politics, and security threatened by a tide of Bangladeshis who are here illegally. "On the surface there is peace," says Mr. Das, who says he was forced out of his village through intimidation and murders by immigrants. "But this migration is a tragedy for us." For now, there is relative calm. But security analysts worry that unrest could flare up again because of a new threat: global warming. As negotiators gather in Bali, Indonesia, this week to begin work on an agreement to fight climate change worldwide, concern is mounting that altered weather patterns will stoke conflict in various parts of the globe. And this area of South Asia sits atop most experts' watch lists. Bangladesh is not only one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, it is also chronically unstable. It is in the midst of a political crisis and showing signs of nascent Islamist fundamentalism. The effects of global warming could amplify the forces of instability, experts say. That remains an extreme view. The clearest threat, most agree, is a mass migration that sparks renewed conflict in the Indian Northeast – an independent-minded area of mountains and jungles fiercely proud of its distinct heritage and already fretted by a dozen insurgencies. "It is the No. 1 conflict zone for climate change," says Peter Schwartz, chairman of the Monitor Group, a research firm in San Francisco that recently released a study on the security risks presented by climate change. That field of study is relatively new, but analysts are beginning to lay the map of forecasted climate change over the map of political weakness to see where changes in weather could lead to volatility. No one argues that climate change alone will lead to war. But analysts suggest that it could be a pivotal factor that tips vulnerable regions toward conflicts. "Climate change is a threat multiplier," says Geoff Dabelko, director of the Environmental Change and Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson Institute in Washington. "It's not that it creates a whole new set of problems, it's that it will make things that are already a problem worse." For that reason, few expect climate change to throw Europe or North America into chaos. Both have the political stability and economic resources to cope. Areas that lack these advantages – such as sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and South Asia – are most at risk, experts say. History suggests that climate can help breed political instability. One recent study charted climate changes, wars, and several other variables back to the 1400s. It found that significantly cooler periods were characterized by large-scale crop loss, starvation, and conflict.