Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Global Warming Turns Terrorism

Global warming causes failed states and terrorism

Dallas Morning News 8 [June 26 http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/healthscience/stories/DN-warming_26nat.ART.State.Edition2.4e1b40a.html ]

Global warming is likely to have a series of destabilizing effects around the world, causing humanitarian crises as well as surges in ethnic violence and illegal immigration, according to a U.S. intelligence assessment debated Wednesday. "Logic suggests the conditions exacerbated [by climate change] would increase the pool of potential recruits for terrorism," said Tom Fingar, deputy director of national intelligence, who testified Wednesday before a joint hearing of two House committees. Climate change alone would not topple governments, but it could worsen problems such as poverty, disease, migration and hunger that could destabilize already vulnerable areas, Mr. Fingar said. But he warned that efforts to reduce global warming by changing energy policies "may affect U.S. national security interests even more than the physical impacts of climate change itself. "The operative word there is 'may.' We don't know," he said. The national intelligence assessment on the national security implications of global climate change through 2030 was requested by Congress last year. It represents the consensus judgment of top analysts at all 16 U.S. spy agencies. The report is classified but was given to senior lawmakers on the two committees. Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass., chairs the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming. On Tuesday night, he accused the White House of trying to "bury the future security realities of global warming" in Mr. Fingar's prepared statement. But on Wednesday, he said the report itself is "first-class" and its findings are "a clarion call to action from the heart of our nation's security establishment." The report was criticized by skeptics of global warming and opponents of using U.S. intelligence resources to track something as amorphous as the environment. "I think it was a pathetic use of intelligence resources," said Rep. Peter Hoekstra, R-Mich., the ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee. Mr. Hoekstra complained that the report did little to expand government officials' understanding of global warming and its consequences. The document, he said in an interview, "didn't add anything I didn't already know." The assessment relied on climate calculations and projections made by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In April 2007, the Center for Naval Analyses issued a similar report, written by 11 top retired military leaders, that drew a direct correlation between global warming and the conditions that lead to failed states becoming the breeding grounds for extremism and terrorism. "Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies," the 2007 report said. "The U.S. will be drawn more frequently into these situations."

Global Warming Turns Food Production

Warming decreases global food production, causing widespread starvation.

IPCC 07 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, December 12-17, p. 26]

At lower latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions, crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases (1 to 2°C), which would increase the risk of hunger (medium confidence). {WGII 5.4, SPM} _ Globally, the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1 to 3°C, but above this it is projected to decrease (medium confidence).

Global Warming Turns Disease

Warming will strain the health care industry while increasing infectious disease spread.

IPCC 07 [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, December 12-17, p. 26]

The health status of millions of people is projected to be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and the altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases. {WGI 7.4, Box 7.4; WGII 8.ES, 8.2, 8.4, SPM} Climate change is projected to bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall it is expected that benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries.

Global Warming Turns Ethnic Conflict

Climate change can trigger ethnic conflict. Darfur proves.

Kolmannskog 8 [Vikram Odedra, April, Norweigan Refugee Council, http://www.nrc.no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf]

Darfur is often used to illustrate how climate change can interact with other factors to trigger violent conflict. When Darfur first made headlines, the most common explanation of the violent conflict emphasised the ethnic differences between Arabs and Africans. More recently, prominent officials such as UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon have argued that “the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change (“A Climate Culprit in Darfur,” in The Washington Post, 16.06.2007).” UNEP’s post-conflict environmental assessment (Sudan: Post-Conflict Environmental Assessment, UNEP, 2007) indicates that there is a very strong link between land degradation, desertification and conflict in Darfur. The boundary between desert and semi-desert is shifting southwards partly due to declining precipitation. Several authors attribute this to climate change, while others maintain that the semi-arid Sahel with strong climate variability is not a good case for illustrating or proving climate change. The 20-year drought, regardless of cause, played an important role by reducing the land available for farming and herding, but as the UNEP assessment also recognises, climate (and/or environmental) change alone does not offer the full explanation for the outbreak or the extent of the violent conflict. All countries in the Sahel have felt the impact of global warming, but so far only Sudan has experienced such devastating conflict. The ethnic dimension does not offer a full explanation either: Political and military alliances frequently shifted depending on pragmatic rather than ethnic considerations. Furthermore, some tribes practice both herding and crop cultivation so there is not always clear tribal distinctions between farmers and herders. When the north-south civil war broke out again in the mid-1980s, however, the central government used Arab militias as a means of keeping the southern rebels at bay in Darfur. Raising an army is expensive so the Khartoum regime used a strategy often employed in warfare: they armed others to do the work of the army. A balance was upset, and ethnic identity became more politicised. This fed into the escalation of conflicts over land issues. The conflict itself has taken a further toll on already scarce resources. Militias in Darfur intentionally destroyed forests and the natural livelihood base of people, resulting in further displacement. The massive scale of displacement also has serious consequences for the environment. Around the camps for displaced people, the collection of shelter materials and firewood can cause serious deforestation and soil erosion. UNEP’s assessment indicates that some international aid programmes may also cause significant harm to the environment, and there may be vicious circles of (particularly food) aid dependence, agricultural underdevelopment and environmental degradation. This is detrimental to Darfur’s existing problems of drought, desertification and disputes over land-use – factors that contributed to the conflict in the first place.