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Russian instability fuels authoritarianism, hinders democracy and promotes communism
Blank 94 [Stephen, July 22, Strategic Studies Institute, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub101.pdf]
Russia's instability also feeds Asian communist hopes that a more undemocratic Russia might yet emerge. Reports from Hong Kong allege that China's government and Party privately supported the anti-Yeltsin forces in October 1993. In addition, there are solid grounds for suspecting prior Chinese collusion with, or prior knowledge of, the coup in August 1991, especially among the military.27 In closed speeches, mass media, and propaganda publications for party officials in civilian and military institutions, an anti-Yeltsin line emerged.28 China's President and General Secretary of the Communist Party, Jiang Zemin, reportedly described Russia's experience as gun barrel determinism and depicted the October 1993 confrontation as a merepower struggle. His point is that when any state is threatened the armed forces determine the outcome. In effect, he made an apologia for the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.29 Party Secretary and Politburo member Ding Guangen went still further. He, too, saw events as merely a power struggle and concluded that Russia will become still more unstable in the future. The bloody military conflict which was an outcome of the power struggle, will have a negative impact on the future political stability in Russia and will cause more obstacles to the economic and political reforms. The army played a decisive role in this round of power struggle and, in the future, it will have a bigger role in deciding the government and the core leadership level, playing a guiding function.30 Given the closeness and authoritarian and ideological congruence of the two militaries, the political autonomy of the Russian military, and the extent of Russo-Chinese arms transfers where the two military systems interact, these observations could become profoundly important and disturbing in the not too distant future.
Russian instability precludes global democracy
Lomeiko 93 [Vladimir, Russian Ambassador, March 26, International Herald Tribune, Lexis]
If this is true, we should not be surprised with the strange temporizing policy of many Western decision-makers on how to assist the reform cause in Russia. For them to insist on Russian instability and "lack of investment guarantees" does not help; such temporization only worsens the problems. A sense of bitter disappointment is growing among Russian intellectuals. It is as if an experienced mountain climber had urged a beginner to scale a mountain, then deserted him at its base. No one seriously expected billions of dollars to pour in from the West, but assistance with meaningful projects to teach democracy and free enterprise would seem to be an important business not only for Russia but for a stable, democratic world order. Most people in Russia back democratic change and economic reform. But quite a few would hamper it, and those who temporize in the West help them. Millions of young people enter Russia's social and political life each year. There are ways - some as simple as board games - to teach them democratic values, notions of democratic governance, and the achievements of European civilization. Once again, to temporize is to miss opportunities.
Russian Instability Turns Terrorism
Instability in Russia prompts state sponsored terrorism.
Schorr 4(Daniel senior news analyst at National Public Radio, “Loose nukes, Russian instability” September 10)AQB
One thing that hasn't changed much in Russia since Soviet days is the tendency of high officials to cover up when disaster strikes. So it was with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and the Chernobyl nuclear accident in 1986. So it was with President Vladimir Putin and the loss of the submarine Kursk in 2000. So it was in the first days after the schoolhouse massacre in southern Russia. While Russian television was told to go easy on the grim footage from Beslan, officials were understating the death toll and overstating the effectiveness of the special forces deployed to end the confrontation. When President Putin finally came out of his shell on Saturday to deal with rapidly growing popular anger, he went on television to say, "This crime of the terrorists, inhuman, unprecedented in terms of its cruelty" represents the "direct intervention of international terrorism against Russia." He did not acknowledge that the hostage-takers had demanded an end to the war in Chechnya. It was clearly in Putin's interest to represent the assault as connected with international terrorism rather than a homegrown liberation movement.
Russian Instability Turns Prolif
Russian instability destabilizes it’s nuclear force, risks accidents.
Schorr 4(Daniel senior news analyst at National Public Radio, “Loose nukes, Russian instability” September 10)AQB
With his regime as close to destabilization as it has been in his five years in office, Putin was reaching out to the West, and especially the United States, for support in his crisis. In his television speech, Putin alluded to fears abroad of a Russian nuclear threat that "must be removed." he US has reason to worry about an unstable Russia. According to Harvard professor Graham Allison in a new book, "Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe," 90 percent of all fissile material outside the US is stored in the former Soviet Union. And, because of its huge supplies, its shaky safeguards, and its extensive corruption, Russia poses the greatest threat of loose nukes. The Nunn-Lugar program designed to help finance the removal of Russian nuclear weapons has not been faring well under the Bush administration. But Bush officials might want to have another look at the danger of Russia's loose nukes in an unstable country.
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