Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

Russian Instability Turns Asia/Europe Economy

Russian instability collapses Asian and European markets

Prague Post 98 [September 2, Lexis]

Prague stock prices tumbled on the news of Russia's financial crisis. The fall generated fears that the situation is scaring investors away from most Central and Eastern European markets. The implosion of the Russian ruble, brought on by the fall of the Russian government, a disastrous devaluation plan and fears that Russian reforms will stop altogether, caused a panicky flight from the Russian market and has had a global ripple effect.The collapse's direct impact on Prague stocks was sharp. The Prague Stock Exchange's 50-issue index lost 13 percent of its value Aug. 27, reaching its lowest level since October 1993. Share prices for the bank Ceska sporitelna fell 35.7 percent on the news that it will probably not recover much of the 5.4 billion Kc (dollar 163.6 million) debt it holds in Russia. Komercni banka shares lost 15-20 percent of their value on the same day.The Czech Republic only sends 3/4 percent of its exports to Russia. However, analysts say, the fear of Russian instability is causing many foreign investors to take their money out of the country and other Central and Eastern European securities, without waiting to find out whether the securities were connected to Russia. Markets in Hungary and Poland also saw a sharp decline.So far, the crisis has only had a light effect on the Czech crown, which dipped slightly against the German mark.Observers say the strength of Central European markets will largely depend on whether investors regain some sort of calm and assess the real impact of the Russian setbacks before selling off their stakes here.

Russian Instability Turns Middle East Stability

Russian instability causes continued Middle East Instability
Widlanski 93 [Michael, Staff Writer, The Jerusalem Post, November 17, Lexis]

ARMS transfers to the Middle East would not seem to be a major concern during a period of rapid diplomatic entente, but the actual situation is far more complex, according to a gathering of arms-control experts at the BESA Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. Dr. Yitzhak Klein, a lecturer in political science at Bar-Ilan who specializes in Russia, delivered a long paper on the Russian policy of arms transfers to the Middle East. Although Russia's traditional clients - Syria, Libya and Iraq - are constrained by financial problems or sanctions and embargoes, Russia is actively trying to re-stimulate an arms trade to the region that had been hurt by internal chaos and international change, Klein "At present, Russia's potential to serve as one of the leading suppliers of arms to the region is limited," asserted Klein, citing the desire of local arms purchasers to use more advanced Western systems weapons. But this could change as the Russians try to upgrade their own weapons and as sources of tension increase with the West. He explained this threat in the following interview:

Russian Instability Turns Baltic Stability

Russian instability causes Baltic stability

Irish Times 99 [March 13, Lexis]

These criticisms are no longer heard so loudly in Washington and other NATO capitals. But they are implicit in the logic of NATO enlargement beyond these three states, as nine others continue to press their case to join the alliance. Romania, Bulgaria and Slovenia are considered the most likely candidates; they would certainly be easier to accommodate than any former members of the USSR, such as Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, which border directly on Russia. But it must be remembered that the enlargement demand is popular within all these states precisely because of fears for their security arising from Russian instability - despite worries about having foreign troops on their soil and the costs involved in modernising and re-equipping their armed forces when other socio-economic priorities compete.

Russian Instability Turns Asian Stability

Russian instability causes Asian instability

Evangelista and Reppy 2 [Matthew, professor of government and director of the Cornell Peace Studies Program Judith, Professor of Science and Technology Studies, May, Peace Studies Program, Cornell University, http://www.ciaonet.org/wps/evm01/evm01.pdf]

Recent statements by Russian President Vladimir Putin have emphasized the importance Russia places on its relationships in Asia. The motive is both geopolitical and domestic: Moscow and Beijing are increasingly cooperating to bolster the positions of both nations in international organizations, while the future in terms of economy and security for the 75 percent of Russia that lies in Asia is strongly influenced by the mutual relationships of these two vast regions.1 To date, Russia has only been able fully to engage China in security and economic issues, and in this effort the center exercises only partial control. Russia has also made attempts to engage Japan, South Korea, or North Korea, but these have foundered at both the national and subnational levels. While the region may not need Russia to serve as a stabilizer, it would certainly be harmed by Russian instability. In order to decrease the likelihood that Russia might play a negative role, it is in the interest of the international community to respond to Russian overtures, involving Russia in more bilateral relationships and multilateral efforts in the region. Russia’s security doctrine, by promoting the country as a major power mediating international disputes, implies that it acts as a stabilizer in Asia. Yet that same doctrine requires the maintenance of fairly high levels of power projection capability in the region. Should the military be unable to maintain these levels, instability could well result. Russian military enterprises are often ordered to fulfill central defense orders even when Moscow does not finance them, further endangering the factories’ positions, and forcing them to find other ways to make money.2