Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010

North Korea War Turns Russia

The biggest risk to a Korean war is the involvement of Russia
Massa 9 (Alexander, http://www.projectshiningcity.org/fp371.php)KFC

The problem with this whole scenario lies not simply with North & South Korea and the United States. The forces of the US and ROK would be able to defeat the DPRK on the battlefield. That is not the problem. The problem is that China and/or Russia could intervene militarily on the side of the North, therefore causing, by definition, a world war. The real question here is this: will China and/or Russia intervene? Out of the two, China is more likely to intervene, as it props up Pyongyang, and, in essence, controls the DPRK as a puppet regime of Beijing. Russia no longer seems to have a stake in the survival of the Pyongyang regime, and therefore would probably not react directly against us militarily, but would probably deploy troops to their border with Korea, and around Vladivostok, in order to have a military presence in the area and ensure no violence spills over the border. Even China may not necessarily come to the aid of North Korea, which, over the past few years, has become more of a liability than an asset to Beijing.
Conflict on the Korean Peninsula would draw Russia to collapse the NPT and full war
Chufrin 5 (Gennady, Dir of the Institute of World Economy and In’t Relations, Jul 12, 2005, http://northkorea.ssrc.org/Chufrin/)KFC

Development of constructive and stable relations with both Korean states on a wide range of issues of common interest, including regional security, is a high priority in Russia’s policy in Northeast Asia. As the security situation in and around the Korean Peninsula remained unstable and tensions there started to escalate since the end of 2002, Russia has striven to make its own contribution to the resolution of the evolving crisis. It came forward with “a package proposal,” aimed at ensuring the non-nuclear status of the Korean Peninsula, strict observation of the NPT regime there and meeting North Korea’s legitimate economic (energy requirements in particular) and security concerns. At the same time, Russia expressed in no uncertain terms its negative reaction regarding the D.P.R.K.’s withdrawal from the NPT, stating that such action may only aggravate an already tense situation on the Korean peninsula and could greatly damage the existing legal instruments of maintaining regional and global security. The worst-case scenario from the Russian position would be a complete collapse of the nuclear non-proliferation regime not only on the Korean Peninsula, but also in the wider region of East Asia, provoking Japan and Taiwan to go nuclear. Russia, therefore, continued to urge Pyongyang to listen to the opinion of the international community, its neighbors and partners and to comply with the established norms and requirements of the non-proliferation regime.

North Korea Turns Iran Prolif

A Korean war would increase nuclear weapon sales to Iran
Aym 10 (Terrence, May 03, 2010, http://www.vheadline.com/readnews.asp?id=91333)KFC

During 2009, dictator Kim Jong-il announced that his country no longer would abide by the Armistice that was suggested by India and agreed to by the United Nations, US, Russia, China and NKorea in 1953. SKorea never signed the agreement. The NKorean leader then announced that his country considered itself fully at war with the US Immediately afterward the NKoreans ramped up their weapons sales -- including nuclear weapons technology and long range missile parts -- to Iran and Syria. They have since expanded that to include Venezuela, Cuba and possibly Nicaragua. Border incidents increased and gigantic tunnels running under the DMZ from NKorea into SKorean territory were discovered. And then the belligerent communist nation detonated its first atomic bomb. Although experts argued as to whether the detonation could be that of a nuclear weapon, none dismissed the second nuclear blast. The consensus was that Kim Jog-il's regime had developed 'the Bomb.'

North Korea War Turns Terror

The North Koreans will uses terror tactics in a war to defeat South Korea
Harden 9 (Blaine, Washington Post Foreign Service, October 9, 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/08/AR2009100804018.html)KFC

"The North Koreans have done what they had to do to make sure their military is still a credible threat," said Bruce E. Bechtol Jr., a North Korea specialist who is a professor at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College in Quantico. "They can still inflict tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Seoul on the first day of combat." The havoc-raising potential of North Korea's special forces has grown as their numbers have increased and their training has shifted to terrorist tactics developed by insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Gen. Walter Sharp, commander of U.S. forces in Korea. "The capability is really very large, and they will use these tactics," Sharp told reporters recently in Washington. In a conflict, tens of thousands of special forces members would try to infiltrate South Korea: by air in radar-evading biplanes, by ground through secret tunnels beneath the demilitarized zone (DMZ), and by sea aboard midget submarines and hovercraft, according to South Korean and U.S. military analysts. Disguised in the uniforms of South Korean police and military personnel, special forces are also expected to try to walk into Seoul. Dressed as civilians, they may also arrive aboard passenger flights from Beijing and other foreign capitals. "These are not your standard North Korean guys," Bechtol said. "They are the best-trained, best-fed and most indoctrinated soldiers in the North. They know how to fight, and if they are caught, they are trained to kill themselves."

A war in Korea would take needed troops away from the War on Terror – those are needed
Roberts 9 (Matt, April 13, 2009, http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1624457/why_we_cant_go_to_war_with_north_korea.html?cat=9)KFC

It is this quote which scares me because a new global conflict or a potential World War III could occur, which would devastate the world and particularly, the US. North Korea knew that if they launched this rocket it would cause tension and "conflict" but they did it anyway. The US, because of North Korea's decision, is obligated to play the role of "world police" and try to fix everything and make ourselves seem tough. This is when things get out of hand. There are many reasons why we can't fight a World War III. Firstly, the US is currently in a recession, we need to get our country back online before we can deal with huge international affairs. This includes our credit cycles to be working again, housing crisis to be fix. As well as a solution to our new 8.5% unemployment (13 million people) problem. The banks need to be stabilized and lending again. Secondly, we are fighting a multi-front war against terrorism. Our military is already under pressure in the Middle East and isn't big enough to be fighting another "huge" war in the East. If "WW-III" is carried out, I believe the draft would have a high chance of being reinstated because we can't fight a major war with our declining recruiting rates, we just would not have a chance at success.