Ferghana Valley

Positive Potentials of the Ferghana Valley and the
International Community
Perceptions of the Ferghana Valley’s potential for conflict define many, if not most, 
initiatives there; yet, its “potential for peace” should by no means be discounted as 
a factor in shaping developments there, especially in an age of growing economic 
interdependence and globalization. The valley has the potential to become an im-
portant alternative transport corridor, a hub of regional trade, and a key element of 
regional hydroenergy systems. Security challenges can have the welcome effect of 
engaging the international community in realizing these positive potentials and thereby 
strengthening the valley’s economic viability. Such engagement would be particularly 
useful in developing mechanisms to address cross-border ecological issues.
There are a number of positive features of the Ferghana Valley potentially 
important to the international community. First, its population of thirteen million 
includes one out of five Central Asians, and is the largest consumer market in the 
region, even though it occupies only 5 percent of the territory.
Second, about 6 percent of Uzbekistan’s arable land, 16 percent of Tajikistan’s, 
and 50 percent of Kyrgyzstan’s lies in the Ferghana Valley.
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In all three countries 
more than three-fifths of their populations live in rural areas, with the figure as high 
as 70 percent in some provinces. The improvement of farming, the development of 
processing industries, and the creation of “value-added” for agricultural products all 
present attractive possibilities for foreign investors and international programs.
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Third, the valley has a substantial industrial potential. Ferghana, Kokand, 
Kuvasay, Andijan, and Khujand are important industrial centers that also play a 
crucial role in the national economies of their respective republics. Roughly half of 
Kyrgyzstan’s industrial profits come from its three provinces in the south.
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Ferghana 
city hosts the region’s largest oil refinery, and Andijan is home to Central Asia’s only 
automobile factory, developed by Koreans and now owned by General Motors.
Fourth, important transport lines connecting Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyr-
gyzstan with adjacent states and the rest of Eurasia traverse the Ferghana Valley. 

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THE FERGHANA VALLEY AND THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 375
Northern routes through Uzbekistan reach Kazakhstan, Russia and other members 
of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), while southern routes through 
Termez and through Tajikistan connect with ports on the Persian Gulf and Arabian 
Sea, as well as to Pakistan, India and beyond. Routes through Kyrgyzstan link to 
China and via the Karakoram Highway to Pakistan, India, and Southeast Asia.
Fifth, the Ferghana Valley has a single, integrated hydroenergy system fed by 
the water and electrical energy resources of Naryn Darya and Kara Darya and 
supported by storage reservoirs at Andijan, Kasansai, Kairakkum, Karkidon, and 
Papansk, and by hydroelectric stations at Uchkurgan and Kampyrabad.
These and other attributes of the valley endow it with great potential for future 
development, and warrant the attention of international bodies and investors. To 
be sure, they do not negate the reality of vexing problems that have brought in-
ternational notoriety to the Ferghana Valley in recent years. But they do provide a 
positive context for the solution of those problems, and beckon to future prospects 
that can be realized if today’s concerns can be successfully addressed.