Changes in the climate of the ferghana valley

CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE OF THE FERGHANA VALLEY

(Uzbekistan region)
Soliyev E.A., Mirzakhmedov I.K.
Annotation: The article analyzes changes in the climate of the sub-regions by processing data from some of the Fergana Valley metro stations. As the warming measure, the average temperature observed in the Fergana Valley meteorological stations during the 1930–2018 period and the deviation of the amount of fat to the average temperatures for the last twenty years are accepted.

Keywords: global climate, climate change, temperature, precipitation, statistical estimates, trends.
Introduction. The problem of global warming is still relevant in the human agenda. Global climate change is not only the average annual rise in temperature on the planet, but also the changes in all geosystems, the rise of the World Ocean, the melting of glaciers and permanent glaciers, the increase in precipitation. changes in flow regime and other changes related to climate instability. One of the tasks of humanity is to balance economic and environmental balance and achieve a fair solution. Undoubtedly, human activities are affected by climate. In this regard, efforts should be made to limit the impact on the environment.

The degree to which the subject is studied. It has been recognized that global warming that began in the 20 th century is not the same as it has been in the last 1000 years. Average annual air temperature is 0.6 ± 0.2°C per 100 years. However, this warming has not been the same for over 100 years and is divided into three parts of the 20 th century: 1) 1910-1945; 2) a slight cooling observed in 1946-1975 and 3) a relatively severe warming period after 1976. As a result, the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the decade, and 1996 was the hottest. The 10 hottest years of this century were followed by 1983, and 8 after 1990. The average temperature for the year 2000 for 1961-1990 was 22 years of high temperatures and backward years [3].

Tourism of our Republic by T.R. Spektorman and S.P. Loads of Niculinas [7], review of those near me 1,130S in 2000 from 1961-1990. 2000 to spend the hottest year of the century with 1941. It is time to reach the highway of 10C with temperatures anomaly 10 to 4 (1995, 1997, 1999 and 2000). At the same time, careful tracking of records is the rule for maximum movement at meteorological stations. It is time for the largest payouts on temperature programs and the winter months. Providing data for the entire season in Uzbekistan during the seasonal winter season (1991-2000), the difference in the region was 1.2-1.5°C; follow the rules for a slight decrease in assessment and writing efforts [7].

As for the study of fat content, the annual minimum fat daily meeting of 1941-1950, with the good results of L.I. Molosnova, O.I. Subbotina and S.G. Hanysheva [5,7]; damp baby diaries 1951-1960 and 1981-1990. In general, the integrity of visits to Uzbekistan from 1961 to 1990 is not investigated. Between 1991 and 2000, it served as an oil to the mountains and surrounding areas.

It is also worth noting that oil has an upward trend in its annual volume. For example, V.E.Chub [9] states that when looking at meteorological stations separately, the trend in their fat content is not clear. T.S.Ososkova, T.Y. Spectorman, and V. Chub in his book Climate Change has not shown any increase or decrease in precipitation in Tashkent during the last 100 years [6]. G. Glazirin has shown this trend and noted that its reliability is 99% for the winter months (X-III) [1, 2]. There is a positive trend in the amount of fat on several meteorological stations Z.N. Fatkhullaeva and S.Kh. Yuldasheva [8] confirms. L.A. Karandaeva and B.K. According to the data of several meteorological stations in the mountainous regions of Tsarev, the trend of fat content is positive and significant [4]. In his next book V.E. Chub also noted the increase in the amount of fat in the country [10]. There is a trend in the amount of fat and about 1 mm/year, according to the Namangan weather station. Seasonal precipitation trend is determined by the following formulas: winter (XII-II) - y = 0.32t + 54.9, spring (III-V) - y = 0.14t + 69.1, summer ( VI-VIII) - y = 0.16t + 16.6, Fall (IX-XI) - y = 0.34t + 28.3, Year y = 1.0t + 168.3. This statement confirms the accuracy of calculating that the sum of the coefficients by season is equal to the annual coefficients. The precipitation trend is greater in winter and autumn, with smaller values ​​in spring and summer, ie 0.32-0.34 mm/y in winter and autumn, 0.14-0.16 mm/y in spring and summer, and yearly About 1.0 mm. Consequently, this is due to the increasing temperature, and if this process is typical for all arid regions, it is necessary to re-evaluate the current climate warming. This is also confirmed by the Paleogeorafic data. Examining these problems in the case of the Fergana Valley climate and improving the use of climate resources to meet future climatic conditions is crucial, which highlights the relevance of this study.

Research Methods. Data processing used standard methods of mathematical statistics and computer programs. The Ferghana Valley climate data were collected and processed using mathematical and statistical methods. Changes in the climate of the Ferghana Valley, including temperature and fat, were determined by integral differences and linear trend methods.

Main results and their analysis. Continuing research on temperature changes across the world and Uzbekistan, this article describes how the Ferghana Valley has experienced many years of temperature change between 1930-2018 and the rainfall change in 1947. - Based on the data we have learned for the year 2018

Calculations show that the average monthly temperature fluctuated from -16.3°C to 34.2°C during the observation years. The lowest average annual temperature of January was -2.26°C, with the highest average temperature being 26.3°C (Table 1).

Table 1

Key temperature indicators for the Ferghana Valley (1930-2018)

Month	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X	XI	XII	year
Taverage	-2,26	1,35	7,74	14,6	20,1	24,5	26,3	24,4	19,0	11,9	4,60	0,06	12,7
Max.	4,7	16,4	14,5	30,2	30,6	33,2	34,2	32,3	27,5	22,7	14,4	5,3	20,2
Man.	-16,3	-19,4	-9,1	-1,2	3,2	8,3	12,6	4,7	4,1	-6,8	-19,3	-15,9	-1,8

The study also shows temperatures in the Ferghana Valley for the colder period of 1946-1975 and the warming period 1976-2018 (Figure 1). The average monthly temperature in these two periods can be seen as the difference between the autumn and winter values. For example, it was 6.8°C in November and 4.53°C in January. The same thing happened in the other months.

Figure 1. The average annual temperature in the Ferghana Valley for the

colder (1946-1975) and warmer (1976-2018) years.

There is also a change in the maximum monthly temperatures. The largest change was observed in April, when the temperature increased by 12.2°C compared to the cold period, and in March the increase was 0.6°C. The lowest temperature increase was 19.1 ° C in August and 0.4°C in April.

Analysis of the meteorological data on the oil shows that the average fat content for the period observed was 149 mm, maximum 347 mm, and minimum 54.7 mm. The highest amount of fat per month was 108 mm in February (1951), with the lowest rainfall observed in all months, except for March, which was 0.3 mm this month.

The highest average fat content was 20.9 mm in April and 1.97 mm in August (Table 2).

Table 2

Monthly precipitation and changes in it

Month	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X	XI	XII
average	17	18,2	20,9	15,9	14,6	8,09	5,17	1,97	3,15	10,8	14,6	19
maximum	79,9	108	73,7	60	68,1	32	45,4	14,5	24,6	44,2	82	79,1
manimal	0	0	0,3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Average monthly and annual rainfall rates for the colder 1947-1980 and the warming periods 1981-2018 were calculated. Clearly, these two periods show a significant difference in fat values. Average fat content increased by 3.69 mm in May during the warming period, 3.54 mm in September and 6.65 mm in December (significant in July, August and November). For the rest of the month, there is a decline (Table 3).

Table 3

Average monthly precipitation for colder and warmer periods indicators

Month	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII	IX	X	XI	XII
1947-1980-X1	19,5	20,2	22,9	16,3	12,9	9,65	4,94	1,92	1,49	11,2	14,4	15,9
1981-2018-X2	14,1	16	18,6	15,4	16,6	6,32	5,43	2,03	5,04	10,3	14,9	22,5
X2-X1	-5,34	-4,14	-4,31	-0,92	3,69	-3,32	0,49	0,12	3,54	-0,96	0,57	6,65

Determining the oil trend is based on seasonal numbers. The seasonal precipitation trend is determined by the following formulas: winter (XII-II) - y = -0.06t + 55.8, spring (III-V) - y = -0.08t + 53.8, summer (VI-VIII) - y = -0,1t + 18.4, autumn (IX-XI) - y = -0.09t + 31.4, year y = -0.32x + 159.5. This statement confirms the accuracy of calculating that the sum of the coefficients by season is equal to the annual coefficients. Fat trend is negative and much smaller (Figure 2).





Figure 2. Forecasting results in linear trend (20 years)

Summary. Based on the above analysis, we can conclude that changes in meteorological values ​​in the Ferghana Valley are in line with global warming. This will continue in the following years. As a result, with the rise of temperatures, precipitation in the form of rain and a slight increase in evaporation, a reduction in winter snow accumulation in the mountains, and a reduction in glacier area. This will lead to the depletion and scarcity of water resources in the Ferghana Valley.

List of used literature

1. 
   Glazyrin G.E., Domasheva N.A., Morozyuk Zh.V., Yakovlev A.V. The age-old course of the climate of Tashkent // Izv. Uzbek geograph. - t. 17. -1991. - from. 18-24 p.
   
2. 
   Glazyrin G.E. Climate of Tashkent for the period of regular meteorological observations // Tr. SANII.-in. 94 (175). -1982. - from. 86-93.
   
3. 
   Cargo G.V., Rankova E.Ya. Climate change detection: state, climate variability and extremeness // Meteorology i hydrology. - No. 4.- 2004.- p. 50-66.
   
4. 
   Karandeeva L.M. Tsarev B.K. Variability and change in the glacial and snow components of the runoff of the Panj, Vakhsh, Zeravshan rivers // Tr. NIGMI.-v.5 (250). - 2005.-p. 68-77.
   
5. 
   Molosnova T.I., Subbotina O.I., Chanysheva S.G. Climatic consequences of economic activity in the eon of the Aral Sea. - M .: Gidrometeoizdat, 1987. -119 p.
   
6. 
   Ososkova T.A., Spektorman T.Yu., Chub V.E. Climate change. - Toshkent. UzGIMET.-2006.-54 p.
   
7. 
   Spektorman T.Yu., Nikulina S.P. Climate monitoring, climate change assessment on the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan // Information on the fulfillment by Uzbekistan of its obligations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Bulletin No. 5. - Tashkent: SANIGMI, 2002. - from 17-25.
   
8. 
   Fathullaeva Z.N., Yuldasheva S.Kh. Climatic fluctuations in precipitation in Uzbekistan // Tr. NIGMI.-v. 7 (252). - 2006. - p. 115-122.
   
9. 
   Chub V.E. Climate change and its impact on the natural resource potential of the Republic of Uzbekistan. - Tashkent: SANIGMI, 2000. -252 p.
   
10. 
    Chub V.E. Climate change and its influence hydrometeorological processes, agroclimatic and water resources of the Republic of Uzbekistan. - Tashkent: SANIGMI, 2007. -252 p.