Comprehensive development plan

E. Population Projections

Estimating population size into the future is an inexact science based on historic trends and available information. Any projections should be viewed with caution, especially those based on small population numbers, as is true for the communities that comprise the Mount Rogers Planning District.

High-range projections for Carroll County made in 1973 by the Virginia State Water Control Board were fairly accurate; however, it is still best to view population projections as educated guesses. Population projections for the same time period (1975 to 2000) released by the Virginia Department of State Planning and Community Affairs in 1975 were much lower than the Virginia State Water Control Board projections and the actual population figures reported in the census. Factors affecting local populations include changing economic conditions, rate of natural increase, and migration trends. Projections are based on information available at the moment; the estimates cannot account for unforeseen circumstances, such as industrial closings, that can greatly affect the future of a community.

Table III-9, shown below, shows population projections made by the Virginia Employment Commission for Carroll County, the surrounding region, and the state. Behind Bland County, Carroll County’s population is projected to grow by the second highest percentage (19.34 percent) in the Mount Rogers region between 2000 and 2030 and is predicted to have the highest overall growth in the region during that time period.

Table III-9
Population Projections^1
Mount Rogers Region and Virginia
By Decade
2000 to 2030
Locality or Region	2000	2010	2020	2030	Difference	Percent
	Census^2	Estimate	Estimate	Estimate	2000 - 2030	Difference
Bland County	6,871	7,600	8,300	8,800	1,929	28.07%
Carroll County	29,245	31,000	32,900	34,900	5,655	19.34%
Grayson County	17,917	17,100	17,299	17,500	-417	-2.33%
Smyth County	33,081	33,800	34,500	35,200	2,119	6.41%
Washington County	51,103	52,400	53,400	54,400	3,297	6.45%
Wythe County	27,599	28,600	29,599	30,600	3,001	10.87%
City Bristol	17,367	16,800	16,600	16,400	-967	-5.57%
City Galax	6,837	6,800	6,800	6,800	-37	-0.54%
MRPDC	190,020	194,100	199,398	204,600	14,580	7.67%
Virginia	7,078,515	7,892,900	8,601,900	9,275,101	2,196,586	31.03%
1. Virginia Employment Commission, March 2005.
2. US Census Bureau, 2000 Census.

CHAPTER IV