6
3.3 Generalized Linear Models
…………………………………………………………….16
3.3.1 Introduction
…………………………………………………………………………...16
3.3.2 Maximum likelihood estimation
……………………………………………………..18
3.3.3 Diagnostics
…………………………………………………………………………….21
3.3.4 Variable selection
……………………………………………………………………..23
3.3.5 Logistic regression
……………………………………………………………………24
3.3.6 Bayesian logistic regression
…………………………………………………………..30
3.4 Monte Carlo Methods
…………………………………………………………………..31
3.4.1 Monte Carlo simulation
………………………………………………………………31
3.4.2 Markov chains
………………………………………………………………………...38
3.4.3 Markov chain Monte Carlo
…………………………………………………………..45
Chapter 4: Results
4.1 Initial Data Analysis
…………………………………………………………………….51
4.2 Logistic Regression Model on “old” Data
……………………………………………..57
4.3 Determining an Optimal Cut-off Probability
…………………………………………64
4.4 Logistic Regression Model on “new” Data
……………………………………………66
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