Тузувчи : Файзуллаева Н

Forecast GDP and Population Link

The OECD in November 2012 released its forecast of real GDP growth[32] to 2060 estimating 2.9% growth per annum (3.7% until 2030 and then 2.3% until 2060)[33].  Where world real GDP growth[34] has grown at 2.1 times (Historical Average Multiple) as fast as world population growth at any point in time over the last 5, 10, 20, 30 or 50 years, the OECD are forecasting that world real GDP growth will in the future grow at approximately 4.7 times as fast as the population.  This suggests that the OECD forecasts for world real GDP growth of 2.9% per annum are either based on some GDP growth focused structural change that has not been seen at any point in time over the last 50 years or they are grossly overstated. 

Figure 3: Historical and Forecast Annual and Average Multiple of world real GDP growth to world population growth

Source: United Nations Population Division, OECD and World Bank

Figure 4 below shows UN historical and forecast population growth rates per annum.